Hainan Classic Golf 2025 Tips: Five for glory in China

The DP World Tour concludes the Asian Swing stage of its season this week, as we head to Mission Resort Haikou’s Blackstone Course for the inaugural edition of the Hainan Classic – the second part of a Chinese double-header.

As always, here is Jamie Worsley's comprehensive preview and his Hainan Classic 2025 Tips. He's picked out five players ranging from 33/1 to 100/1!

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The Hainan Classic will make its debut on the DP World Tour this week, for what is a landmark 50^th event for the tour in China.

Although this is the first time the DPWT has visited Hainan Island over those 50 events, there has been a tournament – the Hainan Open – on the HotelPlanner Tour since 2016.

THE COURSE

The Blackstone Course at the Mission Hills Resort Haikou was designed by the Schmidt-Curley design team and opened for play in 2010. It then hosted the 2011 edition of the World Cup, where the US team of Matt Kuchar and Gary Woodland claimed the trophy.

This is a mammoth venue measuring 7711yds and playing as a par 72. It possesses 4x par 4s (172-227yds), 10x par 4s (386-518yds) and 4x par 5s (532-681yds).

Framed by a mixture of natural, ancient lava rocks, dense jungle and wetlands, this heavily-rolling course is incredibly striking in appearance. It features frequent and dramatic elevation changes, a glut of impressive bunkers (147 to be exact) and water hazards that come into play at the finish.

The undulating fairways are very generous, though few are straight, with sharp doglegs on most of the par 4s and par 5s. That bunkering comes into play to strategically protect them and there are numerous forced carries over the lava rock.

That sloping nature of the course means that there is rarely an even lie, which heightens the level of difficulty on approach into the paspalum greens. Said putting surfaces are average in size overall and strongly contoured; with many shallow/narrow in shape and possessing run-offs aplenty, along with having to factor in club selection with the ever-changing elevation, it puts high demands on approach play.

The length of the course is somewhat deceptive, as aside from the 681yd par 5 13^th and the two 510yd+ par 4s, there are few holes that should intimidate in yardage alone. That being said, while the par 3s aren’t overly long as a collective, they do possess four of the smallest greens on the course and there is little that will be given without high-class ball striking at the Blackstone Course this week.

THE WEATHER

We do have the prospect of thunderstorms for most of the week in Hainan and it is predicted to be especially wet on Friday. This could result in several stoppages and when the players do get out on the course, this already lengthy course will play even longer.

High temperatures will also make things difficult but the one saving grace is the lack of severe wind, with a moderate 9-10mph breeze forecast to be the worst of it.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach/Greens-in-Regulation
• SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
• SG: Putting (paspalum)

Quality ball striking is a must and despite the length of the course, it’s iron play that I place more importance in. Due to the variety of challenges faced in finding these resistant greens and their tricky pin positions.

Of course, strong driving into the well-defended fairways will be key, and while I wouldn’t completely dismiss someone who lacks power due to those disparities in the length of certain holes, it’s hard not to expect big-hitters to dominate on this long, wet layout.

Finally, strong paspalum putters will be favoured and fortunately we have plenty of events on tour that use such surfaces: namely the Singapore Classic, Qatar Masters, Bahrain Championship, Ras Al Khaimah Championship and Abu Dhabi Championship.

CORRELATING EVENTS

There is no comp form to guide us here but there are a few avenues we can walk down to find correlating events this week.

First of all, the Schmidt-Curley design team designed recent DPWT venue: Amata Spring Country Club, which hosted the 2023 Thailand Classic and before that, the Thailand Championship from 2011-2015.

We can then look at the length of the course and there’s two other venues that appeal in relation to this: host of the European Open from 2017-2024, Green Eagle’s North Course, which can play as long as 7845yds and the host of the 2022 and 2023 South African Open, Blair Atholl Golf & Equestrian Estate, which despite being played at altitude stretches out to over 8000yds.

Finally, there’s the option of focusing on those paspalum surfaces. The Singapore Classic at Laguna National’s Classic Course is a standout in this regard, not only due to the paspalum greens but it’s another undulating course with wide fairways played in a similar climate. And whilst most courses in the Middle East would tick this box, it’s the Abu Dhabi Championship at Yas Links that I like most – another heavily sloped course with wide fairways.

THE FIELD

Denmark’s Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen is the top-ranked player in this week’s field at #78 in the world and the only participant from inside the top 100. Keita Nakajima comes next at #104 and the star attraction from a home perspective is four-time tour winner and world #133, Haotong Li.

The field is largely made of the same players who played in last week’s Volvo China Open, which includes winner, Ashun Wu. England’s Matthew Southgate is one exception, making his first start since the Joburg Open back at the beginning of March and we also welcome the talented Sampson (Yunhe) Zheng – a former #13 amateur who turned pro last year.

Hainan Classic Odds

SELECTIONS

Market leaders: Haotong Li 12/1, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 12/1, Wenyi Ding 12/1, Eugenio Chacarra 16/1, Keita Nakajima 18/1

Although we have far more information at hand about this week’s venue than last week, it is still a new course for the majority of this  field and as such, I’m going to avoid the very top of the betting.

That being said, I feel more confident about what type of player it will suit and I’m going begin this week’s selections with a couple of youngsters chasing a breakthrough win on the tour, starting with Sam Bairstow.

1.5 pts Sam Bairstow each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 33/1

Bairstow’s second season on the DP World Tour is developing very much as his first one did, with him looking comfortable at this level. He’s only missed one cut so far in 2025 and has recorded five top-25 finishes in nine starts, going best when 9^th in the Joburg Open. Meanwhile, he arrives at this week having finished 22^nd in last week’s China Open.

His iron play looked strong there, as he ranked 5^th in greens-in-regulation and 8^th in approach. He also drove the ball well and this mirrors his season so far, as he ranks 39^th in approach and 54^th off-the-tee, and as a top-25 player in driving distance he has the length to tame this venue.

Bairstow has finished inside the top 25 in each of his three visits to China, which involves each of the last two editions of the China Open and the 2023 Hainan Open on the HotelPlanner Tour. He again played well in this part of the world when 3^rd in the 2024 Singapore Classic and as a player who putts soundly on paspalum, this appears another good chance for the Englishman to earn his first DPWT title.

1.25 pts Jacob Skov Olesen each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 40/1

Last year’s Amateur Championship winner and former #12 amateur, Jacob Skov Olesen has settled into life on the DPWT with ease since turning pro last year. His stats indicate that he has little in the way of weaknesses and after recording his third top 10 of the season in the China Open, I believe there’s still some juice in this week’s price.

Olesen has only made 10 starts at this level since turning pro and has secured four top-10 finishes. The first of them came at home in the Danish Championship last year and he has carried that form over into this season, finishing 9^th in Mauritius in the final event of 2024 and comes into this week after finishing 13^th in Kenya, 7^th in the Joburg Open and 8^th in the China Open in his last three events.

He gained strokes with every club in the bag last week, particularly excelling on the greens, ranking 6^th. This is representative of his season as a whole, putting up equally positive numbers in each area.

Although not especially long, nor is he short and quickly establishing himself as one of the most promising players on tour, it may not be long before we see Olesen in the winner’s circle on the DPWT. Something I’m hoping he can achieve in Hainan.

1 pt Marcel Schneider each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 45/1

Marcel Schneider is another player doing little wrong this year and possessing some appealing comp form for this test, he made plenty of sense this week.

Schneider began the year slowly, finishing outside the top 50 in his first two starts but he has since hit the top 15 in four of his last six. The first of those efforts came when 8^th in Bahrain, which he immediately followed with finishes of 14^th in Qatar and 13^th in Kenya and though arriving in China last week missing his previous two cuts, he bounced back with an eye-catching 10^th-place finish.

The German’s irons did most of the hard work there, ranking 5^th in GIR and 7^th in approach. This reflects what he’s been doing for the season in general, as he ranks 21^st in GIR and 38^th in approach; also looking solid with the short game and OTT.

Schneider has often performed well on paspalum, including when 3^rd in the 2023 Singapore Open. With two top-seven finishes in the European Open showing his ability to handle an unusually long course, there’s reason enough to fancy his chances of a breakthrough win at the Blackstone Course.

1 pt Ricardo Gouveia each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 80/1

Ricardo Gouveia didn’t quite do enough when we were on last week, though he still played perfectly solid golf, finishing 32^nd. As a player with winning form in Hainan and who drove the ball impressively last week, I’m happy to give him another shot at a similar price.

Gouveia is currently playing the best golf of his career in this 2024/25 season. He’s missed just four cuts in 12 starts, hitting the top 25 on six occasions and ranks as the 25^th-best-performing player on the DPWT.

The putter has been key, ranking 24^th, though his ranking of 33^rd in approach also provides us with encouragement. His driving has been a touch inconsistent, but he was excellent with the club last week, combining power and accuracy to rank 10^th OTT and I’m hoping he’ll maintain that for this event.

Gouveia’s most recent win came in the 2023 Hainan Classic on the HotelPlanner Tour. He also has a couple of handy pieces of comp form, finishing 10^th in the 2023 European Open and with a 14^th-place finish in this year’s Singapore Classic rating as his joint-highest result, there’s no shortage of optimism this week.

1 pt Elvis Smylie each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 100/1

Elvis Smylie returned from an over-two-month absence on the DPWT to finish 15^th in last week’s China Open. Having earned his tour card by beating some star names in the Australian PGA Championship last year, this hugely talented 22-year-old looks a particularly big price here.

Smylie’s win in the Aussie PGA was followed by a 5^th-place finish in the Australian Open and 14^th in the Nedbank Challenge – all coming against far stronger fields than that which he faces this week. He initially struggled for form on the DPWT at the start of this year but found a little something in the New Zealand Open when returning Down Under for a couple of events, finishing 8^th and he appeared to carry that over to China to finish 15^th.

His iron play stood out there, ranking 10^th in approach and 16^th in GIR. I was especially pleased with that as it’s an area in which he’s largely struggled this season. If he can combine that with his quality short game and length, he’d have a good skillset for this test.

Smylie’s debut win saw him beat 2022 Open Champion, Cam Smith into 2^nd and also featured the likes of Jason Day, Cam Davis and Marc Leishman on the leaderboard. He’s a player long tipped for a big career and at 30 points bigger in the betting for this weaker event, following an encouraging performance last week, he was an easy selection in Hainan.

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