Genesis Championship 2024 Tips: Massive 350/1 shot one of five for Korea

The DPWT closes out its “Back 9” in Korea this week, with the Genesis Championship at Jack Nicklaus Golf Club Korea. This is our last event before the two-week playoffs in the UAE and is an extra important one.

As always, here are Jamie Worsley's Genesis Championship 2024 Tips, featuring five selections ranging from 22/1 all the way out to a massive 350/1...

There is never a shortage of stories on the DP World Tour and last week’s final round of the Andalucia Masters at Real Club de Golf Sotogrande was another one to remember.

We started that last day with France’s Julien Guerrier and Spain’s Jorge Campillo tied atop the leaderboard, with the Frenchman chasing his first tour win and Campillo in search of his fourth. A typically topsy-turvy DPWT Sunday ensued, in which both players took and then relinquished control several times, and after 72 holes the twosome still couldn’t be separated.

The following playoff was an extraordinary and exhausting one; chances were few and far between, but it was the Spaniard who created and missed the bulk of the best opportunities. In the end, it took nine extra holes – which tied the record for the longest playoff in tour history alongside the 2013 Open de Espana – and it felt inevitable that the mental and physical fatigue would bring about a mistake in one of the competitors.

The error came from Campillo, as he bogeyed the 18^th following a wayward drive and with Guerrier making his par, he claimed a well-earned and emotional DPWT breakthrough at the 230^th time of asking.

At the close of this week, the top 70 on the Race to Dubai rankings will advance to the first event of that season-ending double-header, the Abu Dhabi Championship at Yas Links, with the aim of advancing/staying inside the top 60 to make it into the DP World Tour Championship at Jumeirah Estates (Earth Course). However, for many in this field it’s merely about survival, with the top 114 on those same rankings at the end of the Genesis Championship retaining their playing privileges for next season, and for the rest a trip to Q-School beckons.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

This week’s event sees the first staging of the Genesis Championship on the DP World Tour, as the Korea Championship – which debuted on tour last year – has been merged with the KPGA’s (Korean PGA) already existing Genesis Championship, that has taken place on that tour since 2017. With each renewal of both of those events taking place at Jack Nicklaus Golf Club Korea.

Pablo Larrazabal won the DPWT event here last year, as he fired a score of -12 on a windy week to beat Denmark’s Marcus Helligkilde into 2^nd place by two strokes. On the KPGA, it was veteran, Sanghyun Park who walked away with the title, and both are back this week as essentially co-defending champions.

THE COURSE

Jack Nicklaus Golf Club Korea opened for play in 2010, firmly establishing itself as one of the top courses in Korea and indeed Asia in subsequent years. Aside from hosting these events, it was the stage of the 2015 Presidents Cup, in which Team USA ran out narrow 15 ½ - 14 ½ winners. It has also hosted the 2018 International Crown on the LPGA and the prestigious Asia-Pacific Amateur Championship in 2016.

This par 72 course measures 7470 yards and possesses 10x par 4s (372-487 yards), 4x par 5s (545-593 yards) and 4x par 3s (172-235 yards).

A fairly open course close to the coast, it is highly susceptible to wind, which drastically changes the difficulty of the layout. In those seven renewals of this event on the KPGA, we’ve seen four winning scores of -7 or higher, and we saw this carry over to the Korea Championship on the DPWT last year, with Larrazabal’s -12 winning score. In contrast, if the wind doesn’t blow, the course is a much different beast, and we have also had winning scores of -17 and -18.

The designers took a flat piece of land and turned it into an attractive, gently-rolling layout. The abundant water hazards are the most striking feature of the course, coming into play on 11 holes in total.

The loosely tree-lined fairways are very generous, ranking as the second-easiest to find on tour last year. Their main protection comes from the large and rugged-edged white sand bunkers, which are ample throughout the course.

The elevated bentgrass greens are small-average in size and with many shaped narrow/shallow and positioned at an angle to the fairway position, they can be tough to find. They’re severely undulating and ranked among the toughest to putt in 2024, and when combined with some of the lowest scrambling numbers last year, it’s one of the toughest short game tests around.

The par 3s are a generally lengthy and challenging bunch, with water in-play on three of them, whilst the par 4s have a good mix of birdie chances and holes where par is a good score.

Each of the par 5s are reachable in two for most in the field but are very much risk/reward holes, mainly protected by water. This includes the 545-yard 18^th, which as well as having one of the narrowest fairways on the course, has water hugging the entire right-hand side of the hole from fairway to green. Which should create plenty of drama this week.

THE WEATHER

As mentioned, weather is one of the major defences of this course. The players look likely to be faced with much more comfortable and scoreable conditions than they faced last year, where strong gusting winds caused havoc.

The forecast looks clear for the duration of this week’s event and with wind speeds of a mere 4-6mph, any returning players will find Jack Nicklaus Golf Club Korea a far different prospect to what they faced last year.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach
• Greens-in-Regulation

Iron play is always a key factor on Jack Nicklaus designs and this course proved no different last year.

Pablo Larrazabal ranked 4^th in greens-in-regulation and 5^th in approach on his way to victory. Marcus Helligkilde ranked 1^st in each of those areas and 3^rd-place finishers, Joost Luiten and Jorge Campillo ranked inside the top 20 in both.

• SG: Off-the-Tee
• Driving Distance

The driver was another key factor in 2023, with all of the top 6 ranking inside the top 25 off-the-tee. These generous fairways also play into the hands of the big hitters, and I’d expect to see lengthy, high-class drivers excel at the course, especially with the kinder conditions this year.

• SG: Putting (bentgrass)

The windy conditions in 2023 saw play around-the-greens carry as much weight as any area. However, fewer greens will likely be missed this year, and I’d expect the putter to prove more crucial.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Italian Open 2021 - 2023 (Marco Simone Golf & Country Club)

Former Italian Open host, Marco Simone Golf & Country Club looks a great comp for this week’s course. The wide fairways have been some of the easiest to hit on the DPWT in recent years and the bentgrass green complexes provided one of the tougher short-game tests, ranking close to Jack Nicklaus Golf Club Korea in scrambling and putting difficulty.

Notable correlating form:

Pablo Larrazabal:

Korea (1^st) / Italy (8^th)

Scott Jamieson:

Korea (3^rd) / Italy (8^th)

Jorge Campillo:

Korea (3^rd) / Italy (8^th, 9^th)

Robert MacIntyre:

Korea (7^th) / Italy (1^st)

Clement Sordet:

Korea (7^th) / Italy (9^th)

Alexander Bjork:

Korea (14^th) / Italy (4^th)

Qatar Masters (Doha Golf Club)

Whilst the fairways at Doha Golf Club are narrower, this exposed course ranked closely to this week’s host in most other areas, including greens-in-regulation and putting percentages. This allowed the two events to develop some noteworthy form-ties.

Notable correlating form:

Pablo Larrazabal:

Korea (1^st) / Qatar (4^th, 5^th)

Jorge Campillo:

Korea (3^rd) / Qatar (2^nd, 2^nd)

Scott Jamieson:

Korea (3^rd) / Qatar (3^rd, 3^rd)

Mike Lorenzo-Vera:

Korea (7^th) / Qatar (2^nd, 4^th)

Robert MacIntyre:

Korea (7^th) / Qatar (6^th)

Jeunghun Wang:

Korea (14^th) / Qatar (1^st)

Gavin Green:

Korea (14^th) / Qatar (5^th)

Alfred Dunhill Championship (Leopard Creek Country Club)

Though a tighter and more densely tree-lined course, Leopard Creek ranked similarly to this week’s venue in many areas. Approach and scrambling stood out in particular, which resulted in some eye-catching comp form.

Notable correlating form:

Pablo Larrazabal:

Korea (1^st) / Alfred Dunhill (1^st)

Scott Jamieson:

Korea (3^rd) / Alfred Dunhill (3^rd, 3^rd, 4^th)

Joost Luiten:

Korea (3^rd) / Alfred Dunhill (5^th)

Robert MacIntyre:

Korea (7^th) / Alfred Dunhill (6^th)

Andy Sullivan:

Korea (10^th) / Alfred Dunhill (3^rd, 7^th)

European Open (Green Eagle Resort – North Course)

The Green Eagle North Course is another water-laden setup that possesses a similar tee-to-green challenge as here in Korea.

Notable correlating form:

Pablo Larrazabal:

Korea (1^st) / European Open (7^th)

Robert MacIntyre:

Korea (7^th) / European Open (2^nd)

Alexander Bjork:

Korea (14^th) / European Open (6^th)

Guido Migliozzi:

Korea (14^th) / European Open (7^th, 8^th)

KLM Open 2021-2023 (Bernardus Golf)

Bernardus Golf hosted the KLM/Dutch Open from 2021 – 2023. With its extremely wide fairways and the short game difficulties it poses, it can act as a good pointer to this event.

Notable correlating form:

Pablo Larrazabal:

Korea (1^st) / KLM (1^st)

Alexander Bjork:

Korea (14^th) / KLM (7^th)

Gavin Green:

Korea (14^th) / KLM (8^th)

Guido Migliozzi:

Korea (14^th) / KLM (10^th)

THE FIELD

Home favourites, Tom Kim and Byeong Hun An are the star attractions in this week’s field and the only players from inside the world’s top 50, sitting 25^th and 36^th in the rankings respectively. #53 Nicolai Hojgaard comes next on the list and is the only other member of the top 100.

This week is hugely important for many players and we need to pay particular attention to those who are around that 114 mark in the Race to Dubai. This includes Ashun Wu (113) and Freddy Schott (114) sat just inside the threshold, whilst Marco Penge (115) and Santiago Tarrio (116) sit just outside and will need a good showing to retain their full playing privileges.

Additionally, as an event co-sanctioned with the Korean Tour we welcome 30 players from their rankings, which includes last year’s Genesis Championship victor and winner of 14 events worldwide, Sanghyun Park. Furthermore, former top 40 amateur and the current #1 ranked player on the KPGA standings, Yubin Jang will be hoping to announce his talent to this wider audience.

Genesis Championship Odds

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Market leaders (1/4 5 places): Tom Kim 7/1, Byeong Hun An 8/1, Nicolai Hojgaard 20/1, Yannik Paul 22/1, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 25/1, Sebastian Soderberg 25/1, Johannes Veerman 25/1

The top-ranked home duo predictably head the betting and Tom Kim did make some appeal. He missed the cut in the Shriners Open on the PGA Tour last week, though did have to play in the worst of the conditions and still hit the ball solidly. Ben An, on the other hand, just doesn’t win enough to tempt me in at this price, for all he’s played excellent golf this year.

Instead, I’m first going to focus on those players just behind in the betting and there’s a sense of déjà vu, as I’m taking three players who made my selections in last week’s Andalucia Masters, starting with Nicolai Hojgaard.

2.25 pts Nicolai Hojgaard each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 22/1 

Sitting 78^th in the Race to Dubai standings, Hojgaard will be desperate to earn enough points this week to move himself inside the top 70 at least, giving himself the opportunity to defend his DP World Tour Championship title at Jumeirah Estates in three weeks.

He comes here having recorded his second top 20 in a row, following an 18^th-place finish in the Open de France with a finish of 20^th in the Andalucia Masters. The latter of those is a result that can be upgrade a touch, as he opened with a 1-over 73 to sit in 91^st place after the opening round but rallied over the next three, with rounds of 69-67-69 catapulting him 71 spots up the leaderboard.

The Dane had been going through a rough patch of form with the driver, but he turned that around in Spain, ranking 7^th off-the-tee and finding plenty of fairways. In contrast, his approach play has looked in fine shape all year and he comes into this week ranking 6^th in this field.

Hojgaard didn’t play here last year. However, his excellent record at Marco Simone, where he won in 2021 and finished 5^th last year, bodes well and can help him towards a victory that would put him in position for a return to the Earth Course.

2 pts Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 25/1 

Next up is fellow Dane, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen. He didn’t quite hit the heights expected in his 50^th-place finish last week but there was little to cause concern, and I still think he represents good value at this reduced price in a considerably weaker field.

Despite Neergaard-Petersen’s lower finish, it was a fourth made cut in a row and the fifth time in six DPWT starts that he’s made the weekend. He did catch the eye in the final round, shooting a 7-under 65 (the joint-best round of the day) and with his iron play again looking strong he can do some damage in Korea.

He ranked 10^th in approach last week and this is the area that has driven him to some excellent recent results – such as a 4^th-place finish in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship – ranking 3^rd in this field since he made the step up to the DPWT.

For all it didn’t fire in Andalucia, the driver is another major weapon of his, ranking 21^st over that same time period and whilst his putter would be the biggest concern, he did sign off last week by tying his previous best round on the greens this season. Something I’m hoping he can carry into this week.

Neergaard-Petersen hasn’t played here, nor has he had enough time to amass a solid book of comp form, though it shouldn’t put us off. His world-class ball-striking makes him one of the most exciting talents on the tour and he can take advantage of this weak field to record his first win at this level.

1 pt Daniel Hillier each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 55/1

Daniel Hillier is the third repeat selection from last week, where he was a frustrating follow at Real Club de Golf Sotogrande. He’d seemingly positioned himself well there in the first two rounds, but finished poorly in each, signing off Thursday with two bogeys on the spin and Friday with a double. He then started Saturday’s third round strongly, going 2-under thru five holes but failed to maintain momentum. From there on in, little happened, and he eventually finished in 43^rd position.

That being said, there was nothing to be concerned about in his performance, he again hit the ball well and looked strong on the greens. Now arriving at another course that should suit, he’s chanced for the second week in a row.

Hillier has made four cuts on the spin and eight of his last nine over the last three months. He’s recorded three top 25s over this time, which includes finishing 19^th in the Open Championship.

He ranks 24^th in this field in strokes-gained total over that period and his stats particularly appeal in relation to this week. His driving has just about been the standout, ranking 17^th, though his approach play and putting have been almost as impressive, ranking top 25 in each area. This makes him an ideal candidate for this course.

Hillier narrowly missed the cut here last year though did finish a respectable 15^th in that 2016 Asia-Pacific Amateur Championship. His 5^th-place finish in last year’s KLM Open looks a handy piece of comp form and as a player who is yet to miss the cut in Qatar, he has plenty in his favour to give a good account of himself this week.

1 pt Haotong Li each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 55/1

After initially starting this season positively, Haotong Li has been hit and miss throughout the last four months. However, he’s largely maintained a good level with his approach play and recording just his second top 10 of the year two starts ago in the Dunhill Links, and then following with another solid effort in France last time out, he looks to be in good enough shape to contend at this suitable setup.

Haotong didn’t miss a cut across his first nine starts this year and recorded five top-25 finishes. He’s then missed six of his last 12 and recorded just three further top 25s, though his 7^th-place finish in Scotland did tie his best finish of the season, when he was 7^th in the Dubai Desert Classic.

He’s been hitting the ball effectively for most of the season, with his approach play a particular standout, ranking 9^th. The driver has been a little in and out, but it has looked fine in recent starts and this big hitter has been typically strong on the greens, ranking 20^th.

Li made just two cuts throughout the entirety of 2023, however this was one of them, as he finished 71^st. With his game now in considerably better shape, he can improve on that result this week and as a proven three-time tour winner, he should fancy his chances of taking down this field.

0.5 pts Renato Paratore each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 350/1

1 pt Renato Paratore Top 20 @ 10/1

Of those at three-figures, talented German duo, Freddy Schott and Max Rottluff both look reasonably well suited to this setup and could get in the mix with their DPWT futures still to be decided. However, I’ve been closely following another man in recent weeks who needs a big performance in Korea to retain his card, and having again offered some encouragement in Andalucia, despite his missed cut, I’m taking Renato Paratore at a huge price.

I was initially surprised to find Paratore as high as #128 in the Race to Dubai, but I was forgetting he’d actually played well at the start of this 2023/24 season in South Africa at the end of last year, finishing 2^nd in the South African Open. Suffice to say, he hasn’t managed to transfer that promise to 2024.

In 20 starts in this calendar year the Italian has managed to make just two cuts. The first came in the BMW International Open in July, finishing 40^th, with the latest coming four starts ago in the Irish Open, where he finished 45^th.

He hit the ball better than he had all season in Ireland and although missing his last three cuts he’s offered further promise. He drove it solidly in the Open de Espana, missing the cut by just one and wasn’t far outside the cutline again last week, where his ball-striking again looked sound but unusually, he was let down by a poor week on the greens. As a typically strong putter, he can bounce back with that club here and if able to find added improvement with the long game, he could be a dangerous player with his tour card on the line.

Paratore didn’t play here last year but any course that helps him keep the ball in-play off the tee is a bonus. Finishes of 2^nd in the European Open and 4^th in Qatar should also serve him well, and as a two-time tour winner I’d fancy him to handle the pressure of this week better than some of the less experienced types who find themselves in a similar position.

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