FedEx St. Jude Championship 2024 Tips: Cantlay the man at Southwind

We approach the climax of this PGA Tour season with the beginning of the FedExCup Playoffs this week. As the top-70 in the standings head to TPC Southwind for the St. Jude Championship.

Our golf tipster Jamie Worsley is, of course, back with his in-depth preview and he's picked out fie players to consider backing each-way as he takes us through his FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Tips...

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The St Jude Championship is the latest version of the opening event to the FedExCup Playoffs, and it was first played in this guise in 2022. It was previously known as The Barclays (2007-2016) and The Northern Trust (2017-2021).

As with last year, we have the leading 70 players in the FedExCup rankings along for the first of these season-ending events, having been reduced from the top-125 last year. That top-70 will be cut to 50 players following the completion of this week’s event, with those players then advancing to the BMW Championship at Castle Pines Golf Club next week. There will be a further cut made after the BMW to 30, with those players heading to East Lake for the season finale, the Tour Championship.

Will Zalatoris won the first edition of the St Jude Championship in 2022, beating Sepp Straka in a dramatic playoff, with both players finishing tied on -15 after 72 holes.

Lucas Glover won the event in almost identical fashion last year, beating Patrick Cantlay in a playoff after the top-2 again finished equal on -15. Unfortunately, Glover doesn’t return to defend his title, having finished in 77^th place in this year’s FedExCup.

THE COURSE

TPC Southwind has been a regular stop on the PGA Tour for over 30 years, hosting the St Jude Classic from 1989-2018 and then the WGC-Invitational from 2019-2021.

The course was designed by Ron Prichard in 1988 and has undergone several renovations since. It was first toughened in 2004, with new tees, bunkers and trees added, and then underwent further changes in 2020, predominantly to the bunkering, with some removed and others increased/decreased in size.

The modern TPC Southwind provides a tough but fair challenge, averaging a winning score of -14 across the last 10 events staged here.

The course plays as a par 70 and measures in at 7243 yards. There are 12x par 4s (395-505 yards), 4x par 3s (162-205 yards) and 2x par 5s (530-579 yards).

This flat, tree-lined layout features narrow and undulating zoysia fairways that dogleg in both directions. Finding them is ultra-important, as TPC Southwind ranks as the fourth most penal course on tour when straying from the fairways, with strategic bunkering and lush bermudagrass rough offering protection.

A smart approach off the tee is a necessity in giving players the best chance of attacking these small (4,300 sq. ft.) and fast bermudagrass greens, with many angles into them blocked out by the trees. Some of these putting surfaces are crowned, with run-offs at their perimeters and are more sloped than severely contoured. This leads to TPC Southwind ranking as one of the simplest short-game tests on the PGA Tour, ranking among the bottom 10 in both scrambling and putting difficulty.

Water is in-play on 11 holes, which includes three of the four par 3s. Most notable is the short 162-yard 11^th, a hole that requires an approach into an island green not dissimilar to the 17^th at TPC Sawgrass.

If players can handle the visual pressure put on them from the water, the par 3s aren’t overly demanding and the two par 5s are short enough that most in the field should be able to attack them. However, the par 4s are extremely challenging.

This is no more evident than on the 453-yard 18^th. This closing hole doglegs sharply from right-to-left, with a lake protecting the narrow fairway to the left, whilst there are bunkers to the right. This same lake hugs the left-hand side of the small, narrow and sloping 18^th green, making for a nerve-jangling hole from start to finish. It ensures that there is no shortage of drama as the players complete the tournament on Sunday evening.

THE WEATHER

Hot and humid conditions remain this week and could lead to thunderstorms preceding the event on Tuesday, and persisting as a lingering threat throughout the tournament.

There doesn’t appear to be too much to trouble the players in terms of wind, with nothing exceeding a mild breeze currently forecast.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach
• Greens-in-Regulation
• Proximity from 150-175

TPC Southwind needs a strong all-round game, but I’d certainly put more emphasis on siding with quality ball-strikers this week. With high-class iron play into these small putting surfaces a standout requirement.

Lucas Glover was a solid 16^th in approach last season, with four of the top-5 ranking inside the top-25 and three in the top-10 in greens-in-regulation.

Will Zalatoris’ first PGA Tour win in 2022 was engineered by a superb field-leading performance in approach and a top-10 ranking in GIR. Sepp Straka in 2^nd ranked 2^nd in GIR and 13^th in approach and 3^rd-place finisher, Brian Harman ranked top-5 in both areas.

Abraham Ancer ranked 5^th in approach and 6^th in GIR when winning here in 2021. He led home a particularly approach-heavy leaderboard, with his three closest challengers ranking no worse than 7^th.

Justin Thomas ranked 2^nd in approach in 2020, with runner-up, Brooks Koepka 1^st in this area as well as GIR.

In addition, whilst approaches from 125-200 yards typically account for over 60% of approaches at TPC Southwind, the 150-175-yard range looks crucial.

• SG: Off-the-Tee and/or Driving Accuracy

Few players are able to contend at TPC Southwind without driving the ball solidly and/or accurately.

Lucas Glover found plenty of fairways last year, ranking 14^th in driving accuracy, whilst his three nearest competitors each ranked top-15 both off-the-tee and in driving accuracy.

All of the three previous winners ranked inside the top-20 OTT, with most hitting it straight along with their main contenders. Brooks Koepka did exactly this when taking the title in 2019, ranking 4^th OTT and 12^th in driving accuracy.

• Scrambling

Small greens and an overall difficult ball-striking test means we’ll see plenty of these putting surfaces missed, which will call on the scrambling skills of the field.

Each of the top-2 last year, Lucas Glover and Patrick Cantlay, ranked top-5 in scrambling, with Glover 3^rd and Cantlay 5^th.

It was the same for the leading duo of Abraham Ancer and Sam Burns in 2021, who ranked 4^th and 3^rd respectively. 2020 winner, Justin Thomas ranked 7^th and Brooks Koepka ranked 3^rd in scrambling in 2019.

• SG: Putting (bermudagrass)

The putter would be the least important club, for all recent winners have putted at least solidly, with Brooks Koepka leading the field on the greens in 2019.

A proven ability to putt on bermudagrass is an obvious positive.

• Par 4 Scoring

Finally, the par 4s are comfortably the most important holes on the course.

Lucas Glover and Patrick Cantlay finished the 72 holes tied at the top last year and both ranked joint-first in par 4 scoring. Furthermore, none of the previous five winners of the event have ranked lower than 3^rd in this stat.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Valspar Championship (Innisbrook Resort – Copperhead Course)

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is a demanding, tree-lined course with lots of water in-play and requires a high standard of ball-striking. With fast bermudagrass-based greens that aren’t too demanding to scramble around, there are many similarities between these two venues.

Notable correlating form:

Lucas Glover:

St Jude (1^st, 3^rd) / Valspar (4^th)

Abraham Ancer:

St Jude (1^st) / Valspar (5^th)

Brian Gay:

St Jude (1^st) / Valspar (4^th)

Sam Burns:

St Jude (2^nd) / Valspar (1^st, 1^st)

Webb Simpson:

St Jude (2^nd, 3^rd) / Valspar (2^nd)

Robert Garrigus:

St Jude (2^nd) / Valspar (2^nd, 4^th)

Scott Stallings:

St Jude (2^nd) / Valspar (3^rd)

Troy Merritt:

St Jude (2^nd) / Valspar (6^th, 8^th)

Tommy Fleetwood:

St Jude (3^rd, 4^th) / Valspar (3^rd)

Stewart Cink:

St Jude (4^th, 5^th) / Valspar (2^nd, 3^rd)

Taylor Moore:

St Jude (5^th) / Valspar (1^st)

Charles Schwab Challenge (Colonial Country Club)

Colonial Country Club is another tree-lined setup that tests players with a similarly demanding ball-striking test to what they’ll face this week. It ranks closely to TPC Southwind in driving accuracy into the narrow fairways and is also among the more penal courses on tour when wayward with driver.

Additionally, the range of approach compares greatly to this week, with that 150–175-yard range especially prevalent.

Notable correlating form:

Daniel Berger:

St Jude (1^st, 1^st, 2^nd) / Charles Schwab (1^st)

Ben Crane:

St Jude (1^st) / Charles Schwab (3^rd, 4^th, 5^th)

Harris English:

St Jude (1^st) / Charles Schwab (2^nd, 5^th)

Sam Burns:

St Jude (2^nd) / Charles Schwab (1^st)

Webb Simpson:

St Jude (2^nd, 3^rd) / Charles Schwab (3^rd, 5^th)

Andrew Putnam:

St Jude (2^nd, 5^th) / Charles Schwab (3^rd)

Scott Stallings:

St Jude (2^nd) / Charles Schwab (4^th, 4^th)

Bryce Molder:

St Jude (2^nd) / Charles Schwab (5^th)

Sepp Straka:

St Jude (2^nd) / Charles Schwab (5^th)

Stewart Cink:

St Jude (4^th, 5^th) / Charles Schwab (4^th)

Chez Reavie:

St Jude (4^th, 6^th, 6^th) / Charles Schwab (5^th)

RBC Heritage (Harbour Town Golf Links)

Harbour Town Golf Links is a strategic, tree-lined course that ranks closely to TPC Southwind in most aspects, from ball-striking to the difficulty of playing on/around the small bermudagrass-based greens.

Notable correlating form:

Brian Gay:

St Jude (1^st) / Heritage (1^st)

Abraham Ancer:

St Jude (1^st) / Heritage (2^nd)

Daniel Berger:

St Jude (1^st, 1^st, 2^nd) / Heritage (3^rd)

Webb Simpson:

St Jude (2^nd, 3^rd) / Heritage (1^st, 2^nd)

Troy Merritt:

St Jude (2^nd) / Heritage (3^rd)

Sepp Straka:

St Jude (2^nd) / Heritage (3^rd, 5^th)

Bryce Molder:

St Jude (2^nd) / Heritage (6^th)

Meenwhee Kim:

St Jude (2^nd) / Heritage (6^th)

Stewart Cink:

St Jude (4^th, 5^th) / Heritage (1^st, 1^st, 1^st)

Matt Fitzpatrick:

St Jude (4^th, 5^th, 6^th) / Heritage (1^st)

Sony Open (Waialae Country Club)

Waialae Country Club is in many ways a kinder test than TPC Southwind, though providing a similar test on approach into the bermudagrass greens, these two events have been able to develop some eye-catching form-ties.

Notable correlating form:

Justin Thomas:

St Jude (1^st) / Sony (1^st)

Fabian Gomez:

St Jude (1^st) / Sony (1^st)

Harrison Frazar:

St Jude (1^st) / Sony (2^nd, 2^nd)

Harris English:

St Jude (1^st) / Sony (3^rd, 4^th)

Brian Gay:

St Jude (1^st) / Sony (5^th, 6^th)

Webb Simpson:

St Jude (2^nd, 3^rd) / Sony (3^rd, 4^th, 4^th)

Andrew Putnam:

St Jude (2^nd, 5^th) / Sony (2^nd, 4^th)

Greg Owen:

St Jude (2^nd) / Sony (5^th)

Brian Harman:

St Jude (3^rd, 6^th) / Sony (4^th)

Chez Reavie:

St Jude (4^th, 6^th, 6^th) / Sony (3^rd)

Russell Henley:

St Jude (6^th, 7^th) / Sony (1^st, 2^nd)

THE PLAYERS Championship (TPC Sawgrass)

TPC Sawgrass and TPC Southwind are closely-matched from a ball-striking perspective and each tree-lined, with small greens and lots of water in-play, they have plenty in common.

Notable correlating form:

Justin Thomas:

St Jude (1^st) / PLAYERS (1^st)

Lucas Glover:

St Jude (1^st, 3^rd) / PLAYERS (3^rd)

Ben Crane:

St Jude (1^st) / PLAYERS (4^th, 5^th)

Webb Simpson:

St Jude (2^nd, 3^rd) / PLAYERS (1^st)

Tommy Fleetwood:

St Jude (3^rd, 4^th) / PLAYERS (5^th, 7^th)

Brian Harman:

St Jude (3^rd, 6^th) / PLAYERS (2^nd, 3^rd)

Stewart Cink:

St Jude (4^th, 5^th) / PLAYERS (3^rd)

Cognizant Classic (PGA National)

I’m going to finish with the Cognizant Classic at PGA National. The ball-striking tests at these two courses are somewhat similar, with players able to setup comparable approach distances into the bermudagrass greens at each course.

Notable correlating form:

Justin Thomas:

St Jude (1^st) / Cognizant (1^st)

Daniel Berger:

St Jude (1^st, 1^st, 2^nd) / Cognizant (2^nd, 4^th, 4^th)

Ben Crane:

St Jude (1^st) / Cognizant (3^rd)

Lucas Glover:

St Jude (1^st, 3^rd) / Cognizant (4^th, 4^th)

Sepp Straka:

St Jude (2^nd) / Cognizant (5^th)

Tommy Fleetwood:

St Jude (3^rd, 4^th) / Cognizant (3^rd, 4^th)

Russell Henley:

St Jude (6^th, 7^th) / Cognizant (1^st)

THE FIELD

This week’s elite 70-man field consists of 45 of the top 50 players in the world and each of the top-8, headed by world #1 and recent Olympic champion, Scottie Scheffler.

We have no defending champion, though the 2022 St Jude Championship winner, Will Zalatoris is in the field. There are just a further two former TPC Southwind winners in attendance: Justin Thomas (2020) and Harris English (2013).

Several players will make their course debuts this week, including Ludvig Aberg, Nick Dunlap, Matthieu Pavon and Akshay Bhatia.

Meanwhile, there was just one change to the top-70 following last week, as Frenchman, Victor Perez moved up one position to secure that final spot in this week’s field.

*You can get all the up to date and live FedEx St, Jude Championship Odds over on betfred.com

SELECTIONS

Market leaders: Scottie Scheffler 4/1, Xander Schauffele 15/2, Rory McIlroy 9/1, Collin Morikawa 14/1, Ludvig Aberg 20/1

Scottie Scheffler has a less-than-stellar record at TPC Southwind by his own high standards and is easily opposed this week. It’s also a place that Xander Schauffele has struggled to crack barring a solitary top-10 finish.

I’m going to meander just outside this top quintet in the betting and after some impressive recent results, combined with a close runner-up finish here last year, I’m taking Patrick Cantlay to win the first of our Playoff events for 2024.

2 pts Patrick Cantlay each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 25/1

Cantlay’s year so far has not been blessed with the consistency of previous years, however he’s been perfectly solid, making 14 of his 15 cuts. Having said that, he only hit the top-10 twice in his first nine starts, but he has doubled that tally across his last three.

Following a disappointing run of results, he finished a superb 3^rd in the US Open at Pinehurst and backed that up with a 5^th-place finish in the Travelers Championship on his next start. He then hit the top-25 on his latest start in The Open Championship despite almost a month out.

His usually excellent ball-striking hasn’t been quite as reliable this season, though it has improved in recent months. Especially his approach play, for which he ranks 26^th over his last 20 rounds. At his best he simply has one of the strongest all-round games on tour, which translates to being able to perform just about anywhere.

Cantlay initially developed a strong record here, after finishing 12^th on his debut in 2019. However, he blew these performances out of the water with his 2^nd-place finish last year. As a runner-up at both the Valspar Championship and RBC Heritage, he has some appealing form in the right places and can go one better than his playoff loss last year.

2 pt Hideki Matsuyama each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 25/1

Hideki Matsuyama was an excellent 3^rd when we last saw him in the Olympics and with his ever-impressive tee-to-green game again looking strong there, he can go well at a course where he’s predominantly played well in the past.

Hideki has maintained good form since his spectacular win in the Genesis Open back in February. He’s missed just one cut in his last 11 starts and recorded five further top-10s, the best of which came with that 3^rd at Le Golf National two weeks ago.

He was 6^th in France tee-to-green, owing especially to his iron play, for which he ranked 6^th, as well as 3^rd in greens-in-regulation. Indeed, his tee-to-green game has been strong all season, ranking 4^th overall and with further rankings of 5^th in scrambling and 13^th in par 4 scoring, he has a strong statistical case this week. Even more so when we consider he has gained strokes on the greens in six of his last eight starts; an area in which he can struggle.

Matsuyama finished 43^rd here on debut in 2019. He improved to finish 20^th in 2020 and suffered a playoff defeat at the hands of Abraham Ancer in 2021, before finishing 16^th last year. With comp form that has seen him win at Waialae and record several top-10s in THE PLAYERS Championship, there are many reasons to side with the Japanese star this week.

1 pt Adam Scott each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 50/1

Adam Scott has been driving the ball better than he has in several years in 2024 and coming here after an encouraging two-week spell in Scotland, he can record his first win in over four years this week.

Scott has played solidly this year, missing just two cuts in 17 starts and has recorded nine top-25s. He had, however, made just one top-10 prior to visiting Scotland, finishing 8^th in the Phoenix Open in February. Although, he added a further two in quick succession on the links, first finishing as a narrow runner-up to Robert MacIntyre in the Scottish Open, before a commendable 10^th-place finish in The Open.

He drove the ball well in both of those events, especially in the Scottish Open, ranking 4^th. This is an area in which he ranks 33^rd for the season and with all other areas of his game currently looking in good shape, he can contend again in Memphis.

The Aussie made his debut here all the way back in 2007, finishing 7^th. We then had to wait 10 years to see him back here again, when he impressed once more, finishing 10^th. Whilst when we last saw him in 2022, he recorded his best ever finish at the course of 5^th.

As a winner of THE PLAYERS Championship, Cognizant Classic and Charles Schwab Challenge, Scott has winning form that suggests he can hit the top of the leaderboard here and if carrying that momentum over from Scotland, he can do so this week.

1 pt Si Woo Kim each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 80/1

Si Woo Kim is another player shining with his tee-to-green game in 2024 and with his form at TPC Southwind continuing to trend upwards, he can bounce back from his missed cut in the Wyndham to become a five-time PGA Tour winner this week.

Last week’s missed cut was just Kim’s second of the season in 21 starts, having previously failed to make the weekend in the PGA Championship. He’s hit the top-25 in almost half of those starts and has recorded a best of 6^th in THE PLAYERS Championship.

He’s been hitting the ball superbly, ranking 12^th in approach and 21^st off-the-tee this season, which contributes towards him ranking 9^th tee-to-green. This level of play should’ve translated to more than just the solo top-10, however he has struggled on the greens, ranking 150^th. That being said, he does often look better on bermudagrass, with each of his four PGA Tour wins coming on the surface and if he is to find some form with the putter, this looks as likely a place as any.

The Korean did miss the cut on his course debut in 2016, though has improved with each subsequent visit, finishing 65^th in 2021, 42^nd in 2022 and recorded a best of 16^th last year.

As a previous winner of THE PLAYERS Championship and Sony Open, as well as possessing a runner-up finish in the RBC Heritage, Kim has plenty of comp form that indicates he can again upgrade his finish at TPC Southwind this week.

1 pt Austin Eckroat each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 110/1

Last week at the Wyndham Championship, Austin Eckroat recorded his first top-10 since winning the Cognizant Classic in March. He now makes his debut in the St Jude Championship and with that win at PGA National potentially a helpful guide, this excellent ball-striker may well like what he finds in Memphis.

Since earning that breakthrough victory, Eckroat has made 15 starts and only missed four cuts, though has recorded just the three further top-20s. The latest of which came when 6^th in the Wyndham Championship last week.

The short game has been the main factor in him not hitting the top of the leaderboard too often, as he’s been in excellent ball-striking form all season. His approach play has stood out, ranking 25^th and he also ranks 34^th in proximity from 150-175 yards. The driving hasn’t been too far behind, ranking 33^rd and at 19^th in driving accuracy, he should be able to avoid most of the trouble around here.

He has been slightly improved with the putter over recent starts, gaining strokes in his two starts prior to the Wyndham Championship and maintained that improvement last week, ranking 10^th on the bermudagrass greens in North Carolina.

With Eckroat’s win earlier in the year also coming on bermudagrass, he may well appreciate these greens. With top-20 performances at Colonial CC, Harbour Town and Waialae CC in limited starts strengthening the idea of TPC Southwind being a suitable setup, he looked an attractive price to go well this week.

All our latest Golf Odds can be found over on Betfred.com. 

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