European Open 2024 Tips: 125/1 shot one of five for Germany

After Nacho Elvira hung on to take the title in last week’s Soudal Open, recording his second tour win in the process, the DP World Tour continues its European Swing in Germany this week, with the European Open at Green Eagle Resort’s North Course.

So here we go with Jamie Worsley's European Open predictions, including five selections ranging from 25/1 to 125/1...

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The European Open debuted on the DPWT in 1978 and was staged every year, up to and including 2009, with every renewal taking place in the UK or Ireland.

Following a six-year hiatus, the tournament returned in 2015, this time taking place in Germany at the Bad Griesbach Resort in 2015/16, before moving to its current home of Green Eagle in 2017.

The event held a more prestigious status in years gone by, with stars such as Sandy Lyle (1979), Sir Nick Faldo (1992) and Colin Montgomerie (2007) – which turned out to be his final DPWT victory – all recording a win in the event.

There are four players to have taken this title on two occasions. Scotland’s Gordon Brand Jnr (1984, 1993) was the first to complete this feat and he has since been joined by Bernhard Langer (1985, 1995), Per-Ulrik Johansson (1996, 1997) and most recently, Lee Westwood (1999, 2000).

Last five winners:

• 2023 – Winner: Tom McKibbin (-9); runners-up: Julien Guerrier, Max Kieffer, Marcel Siem (-7)
• 2022 – Winner: Kalle Samooja (-6); runner-up: Wil Besseling (-4)
• 2021 – Winner: Marcus Armitage (-8); runners-up: Thomas Detry, Edoardo Molinari, Matthew Southgate, Darius Van Driel (-6)
• 2019 – Winner: Paul Casey (-14); runners-up: Robert MacIntyre, Bernd Ritthammer, Matthias Schwab (-13)
• 2018 – Winner: Richard McEvoy (-11); runners-up: Christopher Blomstrand, Allen John, Renato Paratore (-10)

*2020 edition cancelled due to COVID

2023 saw Tom McKibbin impressively win his first DPWT title, seeing off Julien Guerrier, along with home favourites, Max Kieffer and Marcel Siem, by two shots. The Northern Irishman returns to defend this week.

THE COURSE

The concept of the Green Eagle Resort was conceived in the late 1990s by Michael Blesch, with the North Course as we know it opening in 2008. Blesch continues to tinker with the setup to this day.

One of the longest courses in Europe, the “Green Monster” has played at several different yardages since taking over hosting duties of this event in 2017. Though this year it is stated to play longer than ever, with the par 73 measuring a mammoth 7882 yards.

It is worth noting that a major part of that length comes from the 6x par 5s, of which five come in at over 600 yards - including the ridiculously long, 705-yard 16^th - and will be three-shotters for many in the field. The par 3s and 4s aren’t quite as severe in length, with the 7x par 4s ranging between 376-492 yards and the 5x par 3s ranging between 170-268 yards.

This flat, exposed course is rugged yet well-maintained and has averaged a winning score of -10.2 over the six renewals since 2017, and it’s easy to see why.

Not only do players have to contend with that extreme length but there is water in-play on almost every hole on the course, often threatening both tee-shots and approaches on the same hole.

Whilst there are a handful of narrower fairways, most look fairly generous though large and prominent strategic bunkering pinches the landing areas. However, they are usually quite receptive and simple to stick.

The large, eccentrically-shaped bentgrass greens are notoriously difficult, with stark undulations and many multi-tiered. They regularly rank as some of the most demanding to hit on tour, and with intimidating, deep bunkering hugging many and thick rough for protection, they also rank as some of the most difficult to scramble around.

This is a challenge that can test the patience of even the calmest of players, with seemingly decent rounds capable of unravelling in an instant. We usually see a reasonable amount of withdrawals and at this lengthened yardage, I expect to see quality players crumble under the demands of the Green Eagle North Course once again this week.

THE WEATHER

Weather can make this exposed, demanding course all the more challenging and there looks to be some potentially testing conditions on the way this week.

Whilst not currently predicted to be too heavy, rain is forecast to be a constant feature, which should ensure these fairways remain receptive and make the course play even longer.

Though a constant 5-10mph breeze wouldn’t ordinarily cause too many problems, it doesn’t take much to change things on an exposed course and with gusts potentially reaching as high as 27mph over the weekend, the conditions won’t make Green Eagle any less daunting.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach
• Greens-in-Regulation

Most importantly, you need to hit the ball well around this golf course, with high-class approach play looking a particularly key ingredient into these multi-tiered putting surfaces.

Tom McKibbin followed a long line of quality iron players to win here, ranking 8^th in approach and 6^th in greens-in-regulation when winning last year; with his three nearest challengers all ranking at least 13^th in approach

Kalle Samooja ranked 2^nd in approach and 2^nd in GIR when winning in 2022; Marcus Armitage  was 13^th in approach when taking the title in 2021; whilst other winners, Paul Casey (2019), Richard McEvoy (2018) and Jordan Smith (2017), all excelled with their irons.

• SG: Off-the-Tee
• Driving Distance

McKibbin was equally as strong with the driver last year, combining power and accuracy to rank 4^th off-the-tee; each of the top-4 ranked inside the top-25.

Samooja ranked 11^th OTT in 2022; Armitage was top-25 in 2021; and again, we can look even further back to Casey and Smith, who are both players that drive the ball well.

Shorter, more accuracy-dependent players have enjoyed success here, as shown by McEvoy’s win in 2018. Having said that, the other winners have all possessed some length and with the course playing even longer in 2024, I expect power to come even further to the fore.

• Scrambling

With greens that rank as some of the most difficult to find on tour, it’s no surprise to see scrambling play an important role in the statistical makeup of many winners.

McKibbin was a standout in this regard last year, ranking 6^th; Samooja ranked 22^nd in 2022; and Armitage was  8^th in 2021.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Czech Masters (Albatross Golf Resort)

Albatross Golf Resort is a flat, lengthy and exposed course, that is usually receptive and provides a similar driving challenge to the North Course; making it a favourite of bigger hitters.

Notable correlating form:

Max Kieffer:

European Open (2^nd) / Czech Masters (1^st)

Robert MacIntyre:

European Open (2^nd) / Czech Masters (4^th)

Matthias Schwab:

European Open (2^nd) / Czech Masters (5^th)

Renato Paratore:

European Open (2^nd) / Czech Masters (5^th)

Julien Guerrier:

European Open (2^nd) / Czech Masters (9^th)

Zander Lombard:

European Open (5^th) / Czech Masters (5^th)

Marcel Schneider:

European Open (5^th, 7^th) / Czech Masters (6^th)

Wales Open (Celtic Manor – Twenty Ten Course)

The Twenty Ten Course at Celtic Manor is another exposed brute of a course, built on relatively flat terrain for the most part. The challenge in hitting and scrambling around the greens is similarly difficult to this week and with plenty of water in-play, it should act as a strong comp.

Notable correlating form:

Marcus Armitage:

European Open (1^st) / Wales Open (9^th)

Richard McEvoy:

European Open (1^st) / Wales Open (9^th)

Thomas Detry:

European Open (2^nd) / Wales Open (2^nd)

Julien Guerrier:

European Open (2^nd) / Wales Open (3^rd)

Renato Paratore:

European Open (2^nd) / Wales Open (3^rd)

Edoardo Molinari:

European Open (2^nd) / Wales Open (4^th, 4^th)

Romain Wattel:

European Open (5^th, 6^th) / Wales Open (8^th, 9^th)

Qatar Masters (Doha Golf Club)

With large, undulating greens that play a part in it ranking as one of the tougher short-game challenges on tour, the long and open Doha Golf Club has plenty of crossover form with the European Open.

Notable correlating form:

Tom McKibbin:

European Open (1^st) / Qatar Masters (4^th)

Kalle Samooja:

European Open (1^st) / Qatar Masters (5^th)

Marcus Armitage:

European Open (1^st) / Qatar Masters (5^th)

Jordan Smith:

European Open (1^st) / Qatar Masters (5^th, 6^th)

Renato Paratore:

European Open (2^nd) / Qatar Masters (4^th)

Bernd Wiesberger:

European Open (5^th) / Qatar Masters (3^rd)

Pablo Larrazabal:

European Open (7^th) / Qatar Masters (4^th, 5^th)

2022 & 2023 South African Open (Blair Atholl Golf and Equestrian Estate)

Blair Atholl has hosted the last two versions of the South African Open and despite being situated at altitude, it still plays as an absolute monster at over 8000 yards.

This makes it as close a match to Green Eagle as anything in terms of yardages, and it also has an unusual makeup of 5x par 3s and par 5s, similar to this week. With fairways that are easy to find, and large, undulating and sloping greens that require precise iron play to tame, it looks an obvious correlating course this week.

Notable correlating form:

Renato Paratore:

European Open (2^nd) / Blair Atholl (2^nd)

Marcel Siem:

European Open (2^nd) / Blair Atholl (5^th)

Edoardo Molinari:

European Open (2^nd) / Blair Atholl (9^th)

Frederic LaCroix:

European Open (5^th) / Blair Atholl (5^th)

Italian Open (Marco Simone Golf and Country Club)

Finally, there was a noticeable amount of comp form on offer between this week’s venue and previous Italian Open (as well as 2023 Ryder Cup) host, Marco Simone G&CC.

On closer inspection it makes plenty of sense, with Marco Simone an exposed venue with fairways that ranked as some of the easiest to find on tour. There is also an emphasis on strong iron play into large, undulating greens that have been among the most difficult to scramble around in recent years.

Notable correlating form:

Marcus Armitage:

European Open (1^st) / Italian Open (9^th)

Kalle Samooja:

European Open (1^st) / Italian Open (9^th)

Robert MacIntyre:

European Open (2^nd) / Italian Open (1^st)

Julien Guerrier:

European Open (2^nd) / Italian Open (3^rd)

Max Kieffer:

European Open (2^nd) / Italian Open (5^th)

Edoardo Molinari:

European Open (2^nd) / Italian Open (5^th)

Masahiro Kawamura:

European Open (5^th) / Italian Open (5^th)

THE FIELD

Keita Nakajima is the highest-ranked player in this week’s field at #84 in the world and he is joined by just a further two from inside the top-100: #92 Rasmus Hojgaard and #98 Jordan Smith.

Tom McKibbin returns to defend and is one of only four former winners in attendance, along with Marcus Armitage (2021), Jordan Smith (2017) and Ross Fisher (2008).

Nacho Elvira will be looking for a quickfire double after his victory in Belgium last week; Yannik Paul heads the home contingent; Danny Willett makes his first DPWT start of the year following his return at The Masters six-weeks ago; and it will be exciting to see what Denmark’s Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen can do it this level, after taking the Challenge Tour by storm this year with two victories and three additional top-7s in his last five starts.

European Open Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main European Open market on Betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this tournament

SELECTIONS

Market leaders: Rasmus Hojgaard 18/1, Richard Mansell 22/1, Jordan Smith 22/1, Tom McKibbin 22/1, Bernd Wiesberger 25/1

This is an expectedly open DPWT event but there’s one player near the top of the market that really stood out to me this week, and after continuing to look good on his return to the tour, I think this will finally be the week that Bernd Wiesberger goes close.

2 pts Bernd Wiesberger each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 25/1

Since returning to the tour at the start of the year, Wiesberger has made eight starts and shown an attention-grabbing level of consistency. He’s missed just one cut over those starts, which came in India and of the other seven, he’s finished no worse than 37^th; hitting the top-25 on six occasions.

As yet, he’s been unable to get himself into the top-10 and contention but in his 24^th-place finish in the Soudal Open last week, we once again saw why.

The Austrian was the second-best player in the field in Belgium tee-to-green but really struggled on the greens. Which has very much been the story of his season. He’s the leading player on tour tee-to-green and has been hitting the ball excellently, ranking 1^st in greens-in-regulation, 8^th in approach and 32^nd off-the-tee. He ranks 2^nd in scrambling and has made the fewest bogeys (on average) of anyone, but he ranks 126^th in putting.

That means that he’s not been converting enough of his abundant birdie chances to contend in some of these lower scoring events, but on a course at which single digits under par has won in each of the last three renewals, making a bunch of comfortable two-putt pars is going to be more of an asset than a frustration.

Wiesberger was an excellent 5^th here on debut in 2019 and with a 3^rd-place finish in Qatar also a handy piece of form in relation to this challenge, I feel optimistic that he’ll be at the business end of the leaderboard this week.

1.5 pts Jesper Svensson each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 35/1

Sweden’s Jesper Svensson performed well on his major championship debut in the PGA Championship two weeks ago, and after taking last week off, he should be feeling fresh and ready to take it to what looks a suitable setup.

I put Svensson up to be the top Nordic player at Valhalla and while he narrowly missed out on placing – finishing 4^th in that market – his 53^rd-place finish there on his first stab at a major has to go down as a success.

It should have come as no surprise to see him perform so well at that level, as he’s done nothing but impress in his rookie season on the DPWT. We saw evidence of his potential at the end of last year, as he finished 2^nd in the South African Open and he again hit the runner-up spot in Bahrain earlier this year. He then got his rewards in the Singapore Classic four starts ago, with his blistering final-round 63 enough to get him into a playoff against Kiradech Aphibarnrat, in which he duly dispatched of his Thai counterpart to record that maiden tour success.

His performance at Valhalla was in large part down to his quality driving, ranking 11^th. This is the area in which he has excelled most all year on the DPWT, ranking 15^th and is a lengthy 6^th in driving distance. Having said that, his game is one of all-round quality, ranking 30^th in scrambling, 37^th in greens-in-regulation and 41^st in putting; whilst he’s also gaining strokes both in approach and around-the-greens this season.

Svensson will be making his debut at Green Eagle this week, but he did show his ability to perform on monster layouts last year, recording that 2^nd-place finish in the South African Open at Blair Atholl. A 16^th-place finish on his Qatar Masters debut this year also bodes well and I fancy him to take as quickly to this place as McKibbin did last year.

1.25 pts Thriston Lawrence each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 40/1

It says a lot about the quality and variety of Thriston Lawrence’s performances in recent years, that he looks an equally strong match for this outrageously long, exposed setup as he did for last week’s tight, tree-lined track. Though disappointing in Belgium, I’m happy to chance him again at such a price considering the winning habit he’s developed.

It’s easy to be critical of his 46^th-place finish last week, though he is given the benefit of the doubt having just returned from a four-week stint in the U.S.

After all, he did show promise at Rinkven, bookending his week with rounds of 67, and prior to heading across the Atlantic his early-season form on the DPWT had been strong, recording runner-up finishes in the Dubai Invitational and Jonsson Workwear Open.

The South African has looked strong with the driver this season, ranking 19^th thanks to a reasonably even blend of power and precision. He’s also been excellent on the greens, ranking 2^nd and is a strong top-25 in scrambling. Though his irons haven’t been quite as reliable as last year, he can take inspiration from a strong approach display at Green Eagle on debut in 2022.

Lawrence finished a promising 18^th that year, recovering brilliantly from an opening 78 – that had him sat in 188^th place - to creep up the leaderboard and sneak inside the top-20 by week’s end. His win at Blair Atholl in 2022 is surely another huge positive and with a top-10 finish on his Czech Masters debut that same year, there is plenty of form on offer to suggest another big performance could be on the way this week.

1.25 pts Romain Langasque each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 45/1

Romain Langasque is playing his best golf of the year currently and after finally looking to have gotten the hang of this venue last year, finishing 10^th, and possessing some extremely attractive pieces of comp form, he has every chance this week.

Langasque started the year with promise, recording back-to-back top-25s in Dubai but wasn’t able to carry that form on, missing three of his next five cuts and finishing no higher than 35^th. He hit the top-25 again five starts ago in Singapore and has since gone on to produce his best finishes of the year over the course of his last four starts.

Immediately following that effort in Singapore, he finished 5^th in the Indian Open, having entered the final round in 2^nd place. However, he improved on that result last week in Belgium, finishing just one shot short of Nacho Elvira’s winning total.

He was rock-solid across the board there and that is the story of his season overall, ranking inside the top-50 in approach, off-the-tee, scrambling, putting, bogey avoidance and birdies made. Displaying a remarkable level of consistency right throughout his game.

Langasque initially struggled to get to grips with this setup, missing his first two cuts in 2017 and 2021, before finishing 40^th in 2022. He improved considerably on that last year, closing out his week with a 5-under 68 (tying the best round of the final day) to finish 10^th. As a past winner in Wales and possessing a runner-up finish at Marco Simone, this needn’t be a one-off and I’m hoping he can build on that experience this week.

1 pt David Ravetto each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 125/1

I’m going to head back to France for my final selection with David Ravetto. This superb driver is enjoying the best season of his young career and can rely on his biggest strength to make his DPWT breakthrough this week.

The former top-25 amateur and previous winner of the prestigious Brabazon Trophy showed some promise in his rookie season last year, but ultimately failed to do enough to retain full playing privileges for this year. Although, another successful trip to Q-School ensured he’d get plenty of starts this year.

Ravetto had to wait until February to make his first start this year, missing the cut in Qatar but he certainly made up for it when next teeing it up, winning the Dimension Data Pro-Am in South Africa for his first professional victory.

He almost doubled up his South African tally two starts later, but this time on the upgraded stage of the DPWT in the SDC Championship, where he finished 3^rd, two shots behind America’s Jordan Gumberg.

Whilst missing three of his last three cuts, he’s continued to show quality, hitting the top-25 in the Singapore Classic and three starts ago he finished 13^th in the Abu Dhabi Challenge on the Challenge Tour.

Ravetto showed himself to be a top-level driver last year and is again showcasing his skills in this area in 2024, ranking 10^th on the DPWT; complimenting his immense power, ranking 7^th in driving distance, with a good level of accuracy. Whilst he’s also been hitting lots of greens.

He missed the cut here on debut last year but only by the two strokes. Positive performances on both visits to Blair Atholl, finishing 30^th in 2022 and 17^th last year, suggest he’s capable of better, as do solid efforts in the Czech Masters and Italian Open, and as a player whose talent is far from being fully unearthed, he looked an attractive price this week.

You can find all Jamie's latest Golf Betting Tips over on our dedicated golf Insights hub.