Dubai Desert Classic 2025 Tips: Tyrrell to run riot in the Desert

In the wake of Team GB & Ireland’s dominant 17-8 win in the biennial Team Cup – an event that will hopefully have helped Europe Ryder Cup captain, Luke Donald work a few things out before the big one later in the year – the DP World Tour resumes its 2024/25 season in Dubai this week.

The players will tour the Middle East over the next four weeks, with trips to Ras Al Khaimah, Qatar and Bahrain to come, but first it’s to Emirates Golf Club, where the stars will be out in force in the Dubai Desert Classic.

As usual, here is Jamie Worsley's comprehensive preview and his Dubai Desert Classic 2025 Tips. He's picked out four players including a huge 225/1 shot.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The Dubai Desert Classic debuted in 1989 and has remained on the schedule since, becoming one of the DP World Tour’s biggest events in the process.

It often draws a high-class, global field, which has helped produce a star-studded list of former winners. This includes Tiger Woods being a two-time champion, taking the title in 2006 and 2008, whilst we’ve also seen wins from Seve Ballesteros (1992), Fred Couples (1995), Jose Maria Olazabal (1998) and Bryson DeChambeau (2019), among many more.

Ernie Els previously held the record for most wins, winning three times in 1994, 2002 and 2005. However, he has been equalled and then surpassed in the last two years by Rory McIlroy, who added to his 2009 and 2015 victories with back-to-back wins in 2023 and 2024, taking him to four wins in total.

Last five winners:

• 2024 – Winner: Rory McIlroy (-14)

        Runner-up: Adrian Meronk (-13)

• 2023 – Winner: Rory McIlroy (-19)

        Runner-up: Patrick Reed (-18)

• 2022 – Winner: Viktor Hovland (-12, playoff)

        Runner-up: Richard Bland (-12)

• 2021 – Winner: Paul Casey (-17)

        Runner-up: Brandon Stone (-13)

• 2020 – Winner: Lucas Herbert (-9, playoff)

        Runner-up: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-9)

Rory McIlroy became just the second player to successfully defend the Dubai Desert Classic in last year’s renewal, matching the feat achieved by Stephen Gallacher in 2013/2014.

The Northern Irishman did so by overcoming a relatively slow start, sitting in 24^th place entering the weekend, but he fired his way into contention with a superb 9-under 63 in round three before eventually holding off Adrian Meronk by a shot in the final round. He returns to defend this week.

THE COURSE

Emirates Golf Club’s Majlis Course was designed by Karl Litten in 1988, making it the first all-grass golf course to be built in the Middle East. It hosted this event for the first time the following year and excluding the 1999 and 2000 editions – which took place at Dubai Creek Golf and Yacht Club, another Litten design – it has hosted every other renewal.

The course plays as a par 72 and measures in at 7439 yards – just 11-yards longer than last year. It possesses 4x par 3s (169-190 yards), 10x par 4s (359-488 yards) and 4x par 5s (549-601 yards).

This venue has been one of the most challenging on the DP World Tour in recent years, averaging a winning score of -14.2 across the previous five renewals.

The Majlis Course is a well-maintained and attractive desert oasis, set against the photogenic backdrop of the Dubai skyline. Desert dunes frame this subtly undulating setup, which bounces back and forth between holes that are open and exposed, and those that are densely tree-lined, whilst most are flanked by punishing sandy waste areas.

The fairways are narrow, possessing the fifth-lowest driving accuracy numbers on the DPWT in the last five years. They dogleg in both directions, though predominantly right-to-left, and are protected by strong strategic bunkering and some notoriously troublesome rough.

Those challenges off-the-tee naturally have a follow-on impact on the players’ ability to approach these large, slick and undulating bermudagrass greens with precision. They’re often elevated and with many placed at an angle to the fairway, they rank as the second-toughest to find on the DPWT despite their size. This all helps make the Majlis Course one of the harshest ball-striking tests on tour.

Water is in-play on eight holes, the majority of which come on the front nine. However, it is perhaps most familiar for protecting the front of the large but shallow green on the exciting par 5 18^th. We’ve seen many a player’s chance meet a watery end on this closing hole and risk/reward is a prominent feature of the back nine, on which three of the four par 5s appear and also includes the potentially drivable 359-yard par 4 17^th.

The interesting routing of the course and its ever-changing direction of play means strong winds can cause havoc if they appear. This week’s field will be hoping for a kind forecast, so this already testing course doesn’t become even more demanding.

THE WEATHER

The weather is forecast to be warm, bright and clear in Dubai this week. Accompanied by consistent but manageable winds of around 9mph (which could gust at close to 20mph) throughout, the conditions look ideal.

KEY STATS

• SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance

This is one of the toughest driving courses on the DP World Tour and it’s of little surprise to see those who excel off-the-tee enjoying plenty of success here. Whilst it is also noticeable how the longer hitters tend to dominate the leaderboard.

We don’t have to search too deep for evidence of this, as last year’s winner, Rory McIlroy ranked 1^st in driving distance and 2^nd off-the-tee. The leaderboard there was littered with similar driving displays, as runner-up, Adrian Meronk ranked 1^st OTT and 9^th in driving distance; Cameron Young in 3^rd ranked 2^nd in driving distance and 9^th OTT; meanwhile, 4^th-place finisher Joaquin Niemann is another strong, lengthy driver, who ranked 4^th in driving distance and 14^th OTT.

2023 was a similar story as Rory led the field with driver. In addition, Lucas Herbert and Callum Shinkwin ranked top 20 in each area and finished inside the top 4.

Viktor Hovland ranked 9^th OTT when winning in 2022 and Paul Casey ranked 2^nd when taking the title in 2021, with his nearest challengers each ranking top 4.

The four previous winners: Lucas Herbert (2020), Bryson DeChambeau (2019), Haotong Li (2018) and Sergio Garcia (2017) all very much strengthen this point.

• SG: Approach/Greens-in-Regulation

A strong all-round ball-striking display is a must. We have seen many winners/contenders match or even better their performance off-the-tee with a top-tier iron display.

Rory ranked 4^th in approach and 9^th in greens-in-regulation when winning last year. Adrian Meronk in 2^nd ranked 3^rd in GIR and 13^th in approach, Cameron Young led the field in approach and Joaquin Niemann ranked top 6 in each area.

Other notable approach displays include Patrick Reed ranking 2^nd when runner-up to McIlroy in 2023; Viktor Hovland ranking 4^th in approach and 6^th in GIR when claiming the trophy in 2022; whilst Paul Casey ranked 2^nd in approach and 4^th in GIR in 2021.

• Par 5 Scoring

Lastly, the par 5s offer the best birdie chances and with how they’re positioned on the back nine, have a huge say in how this tournament develops.

Indeed, each of the top 3 last year excelled on these holes, with Adrian Meronk ranking 1^st in par 5 scoring whilst Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young ranked 3^rd.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Qatar Masters (Doha Golf Club)

We’ll start in the Middle East and the Qatar Masters at Doha Golf Club has long had tons of crossover form with the Dubai Desert Classic.

These two desert courses play to a similar level of difficulty, possessing comparable averages in birdies and bogeys made, whilst are also closely matched in driving accuracy and scrambling difficulty.

Notable correlating form:

Alvaro Quiros:

Dubai Desert Classic (1^st, 3^rd) / Qatar (1^st, 2^nd, 2^nd)

Rafa Cabrera-Bello:

Dubai Desert Classic (1^st, 2^nd) / Qatar (2^nd, 3^rd, 3^rd)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout:

Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / Qatar (2^nd)

Adrian Meronk:

Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd, 4^th) / Qatar (3^rd)

Alex Noren:

Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / Qatar (4^th)

Thorbjorn Olesen:

Dubai Desert Classic (3^rd, 5^th) / Qatar (2^nd, 3^rd)

Justin Harding:

Dubai Desert Classic (4^th, 7^th) / Qatar (1^st)

Erik Van Rooyen:

Dubai Desert Classic (4^th) / Qatar (2^nd)

Bernd Wiesberger:

Dubai Desert Classic (4^th, 6^th) / Qatar (3^rd)

Byeong Hun An:

Dubai Desert Classic (4^th, 6^th) / Qatar (5^th)

Kalle Samooja:

Dubai Desert Classic (4^th) / Qatar (5^th)

George Coetzee:

Dubai Desert Classic (5^th, 7^th) / Qatar (2^nd, 2^nd)

Ras Al Khaimah Championship (Al Hamra Golf Club)

Al Hamra Golf Club is a less demanding challenge but again, one at which strong drivers have excelled. It ranks closely to this week’s venue in driving accuracy, greens-in-regulation and putting averages, and also features an exciting closing par 5 that is protected by water.

Notable correlating form:

Haotong Li:

Dubai Desert Classic (1^st) / Ras Al Khaimah (3^rd)

Adrian Meronk:

Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd, 4^th) / Ras Al Khaimah (4^th, 6^th)

Brandon Stone:

Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / Ras Al Khaimah (4^th)

Thorbjorn Olesen:

Dubai Desert Classic (3^rd, 5^th) / Ras Al Khaimah (1^st)

Adri Arnaus:

Dubai Desert Classic (3^rd, 9^th) / Ras Al Khaimah (6^th, 9^th)

Callum Shinkwin:

Dubai Desert Classic (4^th) / Ras Al Khaimah (4^th)

Alexander Bjork:

Dubai Desert Classic (6^th) / Ras Al Khaimah (2^nd)

BMW International Open (Golfclub Munchen Eichenried)

There was no other course I came across this week that possessed as much correlating form with Emirates Golf Club as Golfclub Munchen Eichenried, host of the BMW International Open.

The ball-striking test in Germany is more forgiving, though it has similar numbers in terms of short game difficulty. Meanwhile, it offers up an exciting risk/reward finish, with a drivable par 4 and water-protected par 5 coming up over the final three holes.

Notable correlating form:

Haotong Li:

Dubai Desert Classic (1^st) / BMW International (1^st)

Viktor Hovland:

Dubai Desert Classic (1^st) / BMW International (1^st)

Rafa Cabrera-Bello:

Dubai Desert Classic (1^st, 2^nd) / BMW International (3^rd, 3^rd)

Alvaro Quiros:

Dubai Desert Classic (1^st, 3^rd) / BMW International (3^rd)

Henrik Stenson:

Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / BMW International (2^nd)

Richard Bland:

Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / BMW International (2^nd)

Adrian Meronk:

Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd, 4^th) / BMW International (3^rd)

Matt Wallace:

Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / BMW International (3^rd)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout:

Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / BMW International (3^rd)

Alex Noren:

Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / BMW International (4^th)

Andy Sullivan:

Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd, 4^th) / BMW International (5^th)

Alex Levy:

Dubai Desert Classic (4^th) / BMW International (3^rd)

Bernd Wiesberger:

Dubai Desert Classic (4^th, 6^th) / BMW International (4^th, 5^th)

Justin Harding:

Dubai Desert Classic (4^th, 7^th) / BMW International (5^th)

Sam Horsfield:

Dubai Desert Classic (4^th) / BMW International (5^th)

Chris Paisley:

Dubai Desert Classic (5^th) / BMW International (3^rd)

George Coetzee:

Dubai Desert Classic (5^th, 7^th) / BMW International (3^rd)

British Masters/2020 UK Championship (The Belfry – Brabazon Course)

The Belfry’s Brabazon Course was by far the strongest statistical match this week. It ranks closely to the Majlis Course in virtually every aspect, with the tee-to-green challenge comparably tough and has almost identical birdie/bogey averages

Notable correlating form:

Richard Bland:

Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / British Masters (1^st)

Adrian Meronk:

Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd, 4^th) / British Masters (3^rd)

Andy Sullivan:

Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd, 4^th) / British Masters/UK Championship (6^th, 9^th)

Bernd Wiesberger:

Dubai Desert Classic (4^th, 6^th) / UK Championship (5^th)

Julien Brun:

Dubai Desert Classic (5^th) / British Masters (8^th)

2021-2023 Italian Open (Marco Simone Golf & Country Club)

My final comp course for this week is host of the 2023 Ryder Cup, as well as the Italian Open from 2021-2023, Marco Simone Golf & Country Club – a venue at which high-class drivers typically dominated the leaderboards.

Notable correlating form:

Lucas Herbert:

Dubai Desert Classic (1^st, 3^rd) / Italy (5^th)

Adrian Meronk:

Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd, 4^th) / Italy (1^st, 2^nd)

Richard Bland:

Dubai Desert Classic (2^nd) / Italy (5^th)

Robert MacIntyre:

Dubai Desert Classic (3^rd) / Italy (1^st)

Alexander Bjork:

Dubai Desert Classic (6^th) / Italy (4^th)

Kurt Kitayama:

Dubai Desert Classic (6^th) / Italy (7^th)

THE FIELD

We have an exciting field teeing it up in Dubai this week, which is headed by world #3 and four-time Dubai Desert Classic winner, Rory McIlroy. He is one of three players from inside the top 10, alongside #8 Viktor Hovland and #10 Tommy Fleetwood.

There is a strong group of players from LIV, as Jon Rahm makes his debut in the event and is joined by several others including Tyrell Hatton and two runners-up here, Patrick Reed and Adrian Meronk.

Rory is of course the defending champion of the last two editions and is part of a small group of just three former winners in attendance. The aforementioned Viktor Hovland was our last non-Rory winner in 2022 and 2018 winner, Haotong Li is the third man of that trio.

The PGA Tour’s Akshay Bhatia is among the more interesting entrants this week, making his debut in the event; current top-10 amateurs, David Ford and Preston Summerhays will be hoping to make a name for themselves amongst this elite group of players; and it will also be fascinating to see how winning rookies, Ryggs Johnston and Elvis Smylie fare in these deeper waters, following those breakthrough victories at the end of 2024.

Dubai Desert Classic Odds

SELECTIONS

Market leaders (1/4 5 places): Rory McIlroy 7/2, Jon Rahm 11/2, Tyrrell Hatton 9/1, Tommy Fleetwood 11/1, Viktor Hovland 16/1, Robert MacIntyre 20/1

This event almost exclusively goes the way of one of the big guys, meaning the top of the betting gets most of my focus this week.

I did consider Rory for obvious reasons, though he is entitled to be a little rusty having not teed it up in two months and my vote instead goes to Tyrrell Hatton, who had a nice tune-up in the Team Cup last week.

5 pts win Tyrrell Hatton @ 9/1

Hatton enjoyed a good year in 2024, winning in Nashville in his first season on LIV, hitting the top 10 at Augusta for the first time and then finishing his year in good shape on the DP World Tour/Asian Tour with five consecutive top 10s, including a third win in the Dunhill Links and a runner-up finish in Abu Dhabi.

He began this year in the Team Cup last week and went unbeaten across his four matches, winning three and halving one. He looked in especially good form in the Sunday singles, taking down Thorbjorn Olesen 3&1 after going -7 thru 17 holes.

There is no strokes-gained data from his time on LIV, though from his starts in majors and on the DPWT, we can see that he maintained a high level of play last year. Indeed, he ranks 3^rd in this field in strokes-gained total over his last 50 rounds and ranking top 6 over that same period in both driving and approach, he has the ball-striking prowess for this test.

Hatton missed his cut at Emirates Golf Club in 2014 but has made his last nine and amassed four top 10s, including 3^rd-place finishes in 2017 and 2018. Last week should act as a good primer for this and hopefully making him that touch sharper than the top two in the betting, he’s got every chance of winning in Dubai.

2.5 pts Robert MacIntyre each-way (1/5 - 8 Places)  @ 18/1 

Robert MacIntyre broke through in a big way last year, becoming a two-time winner on the PGA Tour. Though not really threatening the top of the leaderboard, he’s hit the ball well on his first two starts of this year in Hawaii and if able to maintain that this week, he’ll be among the main contenders at Emirates Golf Club.

MacIntyre’s two wins last year came in big events, as he won his first PGA Tour title in the Canadian Open in June. He then became the first home winner of the Scottish Open for 25 years a month later, banishing the memories of his agonising runner-up finish to Rory McIlroy 12 months previous.

He was in good form at the end of last year, hitting the top 25 in his last six starts. That carried over into the first event of this year, as he finished 15^th in The Sentry and though only 53^rd in last week’s Sony Open, it was a positive to see his long game firing again, ranking top 7 in ball-striking.

That should come as no surprise, as the Scot produced positive strokes-gained numbers right through his bag last year and he enters this week ranking 5^th in this field from tee-to-green over his last 50 rounds.

MacIntyre enjoyed an excellent start to life in this event, finishing 8^th on debut in 2020 before going even better the following year, finishing 3^rd. He hasn’t gone quite as well on his next two visits, but his victory in the 2022 Italian Open, where he beat a field that included Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton, is just another example of how he can perform on courses where quality off-the-tee is a must.

1.25 pts Akshay Bhatia each-way (1/5 - 6 Places) @ 35/1

Though making his debut this week, there’s enough evidence to suggest Akshay Bhatia will like what he finds at Emirates Golf Club. At an appealing price, I’m happy to take the young American in Dubai.

2024 was another productive year for Bhatia. He secured a second PGA Tour title in the Texas Open and achieved his first major top 20 when 16^th in the US Open. His form was strong towards the end of the year, as he recorded four top-5 finishes in his last 10 starts, including runner-up finishes in the Rocket Mortgage Classic and then in the prestigious Dunlop Phoenix Tournament on the Japanese Tour.

He made a slow start to 2025 in The Sentry two weeks ago, failing to break 70 in his first two rounds to sit 49^th of 59 players at the halfway point. However, he found his stride over the weekend, with rounds of 67 and 66 taking him to a 32^nd-place finish and with the ball-striking coming together, he can make a much better start this week.

Possessing quality in every area of his game, he ranks 7^th in this field in strokes-gained total over the last 12 months, and with ball-striking rankings of 16^th in approach and 26^th off-the-tee, he clearly has the skillset to tackle this layout.

Bhatia makes his debut here but that win in Texas can certainly be seen as a positive in relation to this test, with TPC San Antonio a desert course that rates as one of the toughest ball-striking tests on the PGA Tour.

0.75 pts Dan Bradbury each-way (1/5 - 8 Places) @ 225/1

Dan Bradbury was among the best ball-strikers on the DPWT in 2024, which eventually helped him to a second tour win in the Open de France back in October. He was still hitting the ball well at the end of the year and having looked good for a long time on his debut at Emirates Golf Club in 2023, he is taken to cause an upset at a huge price this week.

Bradbury’s long game was in good shape throughout last year, though due to struggles on the greens, his name was rarely seen near the top of the leaderboard. A switch to a long putter brought about some improvements at the end of September, which he then took advantage of by winning at Le Golf National. He continued to play solidly thereafter and though missing the cut when we last saw him in the Alfred Dunhill Championship, he only did so by one shot.

The Englishman ranked 9^th in approach and 34^th in greens-in-regulation on the DPWT Last year. When added to his strength off-the-tee, where he combines length with accuracy to rank 27^th in this field in the last year, we find a player with the ball-striking game to handle the demands of the Majlis Course.

He made his debut here in 2023 and performed excellently for three rounds, entering the final day in 2^nd place, three shots back of Rory McIlroy. Although succumbing to the pressure in round four, with a 4-over 76 dropping him to 28^th place, there was enough confidence to be taken from the rest of the week that makes him well worth chancing at this price.

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