Open de Espana 2024 FRL Tips: Five to go low in Spain

The DP World Tour heads to Spain this week and our golf tipster Jamie Worsley has already posted his Open de Espana Betting Preview here at Betfred Insights.

Now though, he focuses on the First Round Leader market and has five names to consider playing at good odds. Check out his Open de Espana FRL Tips below...

*You can get all the latest Open de Espana Odds over at betfred.com

The Open de Espana begins tomorrow amidst some turbulent conditions. However, there’s one side of the draw that looks to have the advantage, and I’m hoping to capitalise on that to find the first-round leader at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid.

Rain and strong winds look set to cause chaos across the day, though the later starters look in for the worst of it. Gusts of 27-31mph for the early starters will be no joke, but it is forecast to reach highs of 40-44mph for the afternoon starters and just when it is forecast to die down a little later in the day, that is when the rain is predicted to reappear.

If this materialises, the early starters will be clearly favoured and that’s where I’m going to focus all of my attention this week.

0.75 pts Ewen Ferguson ew (1/4, 5 places) @ 50/1 

Start time: 09:20

Ewen Ferguson went well on debut in Madrid last year and arrives here after recording his first top-20 since winning the BMW International Open at the start of June. As a proven wind player, he looks to have a good chance of taking the early lead tomorrow.

Ferguson enjoyed a strong start to the year prior to winning the BMW International Open. Although he’s missed half of his last six cuts, he did show his ability in the wind when 22^nd in The Open and 36^th in the Irish Open, before then hitting the top-20 at Wentworth last week, finishing 18^th.

The Scot has performed well in round one this year, ranking 18^th in this field and he rates highly in all of the areas you’d want in those tough conditions tomorrow, ranking 12^th in bogey avoidance, 20^th in greens-in-regulation and 20^th in scrambling.

Ferguson finished 9^th here last year, firing four rounds in the 60s and though he’ll need to display a different skillset tomorrow, he looks one of the most well-equipped to handle that testing weather.

0.75 pts Julien Guerrier ew (1/4, 5 places) @ 60/1

Start time: 09:30

Julien Guerrier has been starting solidly for most of the year and possessing an excellent record at this course, he can take the first-round lead on Thursday.

Guerrier narrowly missed the cut last week; however, it was his first in nine starts and in a year in which he’s recorded seven top-25 finishes, including a best of 4^th in the European Open, he can bounce back here.

He ranks 14^th in round one performance this year and is top-25 in bogey avoidance, owing to his solid top-50 rankings in scrambling and greens-in-regulation. A skillset that enables him to perform best when the going is difficult.

That should serve Guerrier well tomorrow and whilst he’s recorded his excellent 3^rd and 6^th-place finishes here when the scoring was much lower – firing a 63 and three rounds of 66 across those two starts – he has the game to perform similarly in tougher conditions.

0.75 pts Andrew Johnston ew (1/4, 5 places) @ 70/1

Start time: 09:30

Andrew ‘Beef’ Johnston has finally found his way back after a couple of very difficult years off the course. He can rely on his ability to perform in demanding conditions to hit the top of the leaderboard in round one.

Beef has made five of his last six cuts and recorded three top-25s, including an excellent 3^rd-place finish in the Omega European Masters. An event in which he opened with a 5-under 65 to sit 7^th after the opening round.

He’s found his stride with the driver and has been scrambling well for most of the year. Combined with his ability in tough conditions, as seen by his 2016 win in this event at Valderrama (won with a score of +1), as well as a runner-up finish in 2018 Indian Open, he has the expertise to win this battle with the elements.

Johnston finished 24^th here on debut in 2021 and with plenty of positive experience in Spain outside of that win at Valderrama, he should relish teeing off in Madrid tomorrow.

0.5 pts Renato Paratore ew (1/4, 5 places) @ 150/1 

Start time: 09:50

A couple of longshots now and after making his first cut in five starts, I’m taking a punt on Renato Paratore carrying that form over into tomorrow’s first round. At a course at which he possesses a good record.

Paratore was showing some positive signs at the end of last year but has fallen off a cliff in 2024, making just two cuts in 16 starts. The latest of which was a 45^th-place finish on a windy week in Northern Ireland.

That should act as a big positive for this test and even more so is the fact that he started solidly there, shooting level par to sit 33^rd after round one. In fact, he had a similarly sound start on his previous start in the European Masters, where he fired a 2-under 68 to sit 38^th, before a second-round 73 caused him to miss the cut.

The Italian produced some of his best ball-striking of the year in the Irish Open and as a player who has always had an excellent touch on and around the greens, he’ll be less perturbed than many when having to rely on his scrambling on day one.

Paratore has often performed well on courses like this, owning a particularly good record at Crans. Indeed, he’s proven his suitability to this setup on the last two renewals, finishing 9^th and 13^th, and he can give himself a good chance of making a second cut in a row by getting off to a fast start on Thursday.

0.5 pts Stephen Gallacher ew (1/4, 5 places) @ 200/1

Start time: 08:40

Stephen Gallacher has gone somewhat well in the opening round of each of his last three starts. As a player who has often performed well in tough conditions, he can make it four in a row in tomorrow’s first round.

Gallacher had done little of note this year but has enjoyed his best stretch of golf in recent weeks, finishing 46^th at The Belfry, 22^nd at Crans and then he narrowly missed the cut at Royal County Down in the Irish Open.

He started excellently at The Belfry, shooting a 3-under 69 to sit 5^th after the opening round and also made a positive start in the European Masters, with a 3-under 67 taking him into 20^th place.

Gallacher has made the cut on each of his previous visits here, finishing 18^th in 2022 and 72^nd last year. He also has a strong record at the challenging DLF G&CC in the Indian Open, winning there in 2019. Plenty of patience will be required tomorrow and I’m taking the Scot – who turns 50 in November – to turn back the clock in the opening round of the Open de Espana.

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