Dubai Invitational 2026 Betting Tips: Four to fire in the desert

The DP World Tour reconvenes in Dubai this week, with the first of seven events that make up the International Swing portion of the 2025/26 season.

We are set for a heavyweight tussle to begin the year, as Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood return to the Dubai Creek Resort to again do battle in the Dubai Invitational.

Our golf tipster Jamie Worsley is back with his usual long-read preview of the event. He's picked out four players he likes the look of this week, so check out Jamie's thoughts and his Dubai Invitational 2025 Betting Tips below...

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TOURNAMENT HISTORY 

The Dubai Invitational is a biennial event that was first held in 2024 and is the first stop on the DP World Tour's (DPWT) International Swing. As with the inaugural edition, it will be played at the Dubai Creek Resort.

Previous result:

• 2024

Winner: Tommy Fleetwood (-19)

Runners-up: Rory McIlroy, Thriston Lawrence (-18)

Tommy Fleetwood is this week's defending champion after he came out on top of a ding-dong battle with Rory McIlroy two years ago, making a 16-footer for birdie on the final hole as Rory closed with a bogey after finding the water off the tee. The Englishman returns to defend this week.

THE COURSE

Dubai Creek Resort

• Opened: 1993 (second-oldest 18-hole golf course in Dubai)
• Original architect: Karl Litten
• Latest renovation: 2003-2007 performed by European Golf Design
• Previous tournaments: 1999 & 2000 editions of the Dubai Desert Classic; 2021 Asia-Pacific Amateur Championship
• Par / Yardage: Par 71 / 7059 yards
• Hole breakdown:
  • 4x par 3s (158-223 yards)
  • 11x par 4s (336-492 yards)
  • 3x par 5s (551-569 yards)
• Course style: Spacious, watery and well-manicured desert parkland, with holes framed by towering palm trees
• Fairways: Bermudagrass and average in width overall, some narrow and others generous; lined by sand with large bunkers and waste areas commonplace
• Greens:
  • Smallish, sloping and elevated bermudagrass surfaces
  • Often at an angle to the fairway position, making them tough to hit
  • Sharp run-off areas litter the perimeters
• Defences: Water (in play on 10 holes); strategic bunkering; wind; thicker rough and firmer surfaces than in 2024

Dubai Creek is a fun, risk/reward test with danger lurking throughout. Players largely had things their own way in 2024, with little wind and a simpler course setup; if those tweaks have the desired impact, we should see a sterner examination this week.

THE WEATHER

Conditions are forecast to be warm and bright throughout, with temperatures over 20°C predicted each day. However, wind looks like being a bigger factor than in 2024, with constant speeds of 12-16mph and gusts reaching as high as 31mph on Friday.

KEY STATS

SG: Around-the-Greens / Scrambling

The main contenders at Dubai Creek in 2024 generally performed well through the bag, but what stood out in particular was their quality around the greens. With likely tougher playing conditions this time, which would result in even fewer greens hit, I expect its importance to increase.

• 2024
  • Tommy Fleetwood (Winner): 4^th in SG: Around-the-Greens (SG: ATG) / 6^th in scrambling
  • Rory McIlroy (2^nd): 5^th in SG: ATG / 3^rd in scrambling
  • Thriston Lawrence (2^nd): 2^nd in scrambling
  • Jordan Smith (4^th): 9^th in scrambling

SG: Approach / Greens-in-Regulation

High-class iron play was another area that featured heavily among the challengers here two years ago.

• 2024
  • Tommy Fleetwood (Winner): 2^nd in SG: Approach / 1^st in greens-in-regulation (GIR)
  • Rory McIlroy (2^nd): 7^th in GIR
  • Jordan Smith (4^th): 1^st in SG: Approach / 2^nd in GIR
  • Francesco Molinari (5^th): 8^th in SG: Approach / 7^th in GIR

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Due to just one recent event being staged at this venue, and the limited 60-man field, it's hard to draw firm conclusions relating to comp form. That said, I have a quartet of courses that can provide us with some clues.

Dubai Desert Classic (Emirates Golf Club)

Any form across the Middle East is a positive here, but it's Emirates Golf Club that stands out. Also designed by Karl Litten, it uses bermudagrass throughout and the ball-striking numbers (driving accuracy and GIR) at Dubai Creek in 2024 closely resembled what we typically see there.

Ras Al Khaimah Championship (Al Hamra Golf Club)

Al Hamra Golf Club is another venue worth checking out. This typically flat desert course ranks similarly to Dubai Creek in virtually every area, particularly in approach and around the greens.

Open de France (Le Golf National)

Flat, spacious and perilously packed with water, Le Golf National was among my comp courses here two years ago. With former Open de France winner Tommy Fleetwood walking away with the title, it certainly seemed to play out and can again be a helpful guide this week.

Open de Espana (Club de Campo Villa de Madrid)

Although it is a more compact and tightly tree-lined track, Club de Campo Villa de Madrid has several risk/reward opportunities, and it compares favourably to Dubai Creek in driving and short-game difficulty.

THE FIELD

World No. 2 Rory McIlroy kicks off his year in Dubai and will be joined by No. 3 Tommy Fleetwood – the man who beat him to this title two years ago.

Jayden Schaper will tee it up after ending 2025 with incredible back-to-back victories in South Africa and Mauritius. Meanwhile, fellow breakthrough winners in the new season, David Puig and Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, are also in action.

This deep 60-man field is strengthened by familiar names such as Shane Lowry, Patrick Reed, Nicolai Hojgaard, Ryan Fox, and the other runner-up here in 2024, Thriston Lawrence.

SELECTIONS 

Market leaders (1/5 5 places): Rory McIlroy 10/3, Tommy Fleetwood 9/2, Jayden Schaper 14/1, Nicolai Hojgaard 14/1, Shane Lowry 16/1

2.5 pts Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 18/1

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen finally turned his immense promise into a DPWT victory at the end of 2025 when winning the Australian Open. He did so in style, beating a high-quality field that included Rory McIlroy, Cam Smith, and Adam Scott, and with his excellent tee-to-green game, he should hit the ground running in Dubai.

The Dane was in electric form during 2025 and rates as the fourth-best player in this field statistically across those 12 months. He recorded eight top-10s prior to winning in Australia, including runner-up finishes in Qatar and Puerto Rico, and he signed off the previous season with a 3^rd-place finish in the DP World Tour Championship to secure PGA Tour status for 2026.

His long game is superb, marrying power and accuracy to rank 6^th in SG: Off-the-Tee (SG: OTT) on the DPWT last season, and he was also top-20 in both SG: Approach and GIR. The short game is perfectly solid, ranking 24^th in scrambling and he's shown an ability to perform in all kinds of scoring conditions.

Neergaard-Petersen didn't play here in 2024, but he has tonnes of positive form in the Middle East. He won the UAE Challenge on the HotelPlanner Tour in 2024 and aside from his runner-up finish in Qatar, he also finished 10^th on his Dubai Desert Classic debut in 2025. A 5^th-place finish at the Open de Espana strengthens his case and suggests he'll appreciate the test at Dubai Creek.

2 pts Patrick Reed each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 25/1

Hailing from Texas, it’s no surprise that Patrick Reed has shown a liking for the typically breezy conditions in the Middle East. He comes into 2026 after producing some of the strongest approach play of his career last year and as one of the best short-game players in the world, this challenge should be right up his street.

There were lots of positives for Reed in 2025. He began the year with back-to-back top 10s in the UAE and then finished 3^rd at Augusta, before claiming his first LIV title in Dallas in June.

He mixed his time between the DPWT and Asian Tour after the LIV season ended and continued to perform well. Most notably, he finished 3^rd at Wentworth in the BMW PGA Championship back in September.

His iron play consistently fired, ranking 6^th in this field in SG: Approach in 2025. Although the putter wasn’t quite as reliable as we’ve come to expect, he was still excellent around the greens, ranking 2^nd in scrambling and 3^rd in SG: ATG on the DPWT.

Reed was a memorable runner-up to Rory McIlroy on his Dubai Desert Classic debut in 2023 and he returned to finish 10^th last year. He’s also got an 8^th-place finish at Ras Khaimah, and when combined with finishes of 10^th and 16^th on his two Open de Espana appearances, the former Masters champ ticks plenty of boxes.

1 pt Dan Bradbury each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 55/1

There were few players hitting the ball as well as Dan Bradbury towards the end of last year, which helped him to a 2^nd-place finish in the Nedbank Challenge on his second-last start. He has some encouraging comp form in relation to this course and if he can keep the putter firing he’ll be a danger to the market leaders.

Bradbury had just the two top-10s last season, coming back-to-back in June when 3^rd in the Italian Open and 7^th in the KLM Open. He did find some consistency late on, making five of his last seven cuts and he carried that into his first outing of the new season, finishing an excellent 2^nd to Kristoffer Reitan in the Nedbank Challenge.

He was striking it with great precision over that period, ranking 3^rd in SG: Approach, 3^rd in driving accuracy and 10^th in SG: OTT across the last six months. A ranking of 37^th in putting is another plus for a player that typically struggles with the club, and whilst he’s not as sharp as I’d like around the greens, his ranking of 22^nd in GIR on the DPWT is beneficial here.

Bradbury was a solid 30^th at Dubai Creek in 2024, looking particularly strong in approach. He won the Open de France later that same year and having never finished outside the top 30 in four Open de Espana starts, this appears a suitable layout.

1 pt Rikuya Hoshino each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 100/1

Japan’s Rikuya Hoshino returns to DPWT action after enduring a disappointing rookie season on the PGA Tour in 2025. However, he did show some promising signs in extremely windy conditions in Bermuda back in November, and as a generally accurate player with a strong short game who has winning form in the Middle East, he’s worth a shot at the price.

Hoshino made just eight of 20 PGA Tour cuts last year, but it’s a huge plus that his best effort came on a blustery week in Bermuda, where he finished 8^th. He shot two rounds in the 60s to narrowly miss the cut in the RSM Classic a week later, and although he was disappointing when down the leaderboard in the Nedbank Challenge, that course wouldn’t be an obvious fit.

Anything positive from him last year was engineered by his quality scrambling (ranking 44^th on the PGA Tour) and accuracy off the tee – reminiscent of his form on the DPWT in 2024. He’s also a decent iron player at his best (ranking 36^th in 2024) and I’m hoping he rediscovers that in these suitable surrounds.

Hoshino’s solo DPWT win came in Qatar back in 2024 when the wind was again a factor. He’s also finished 6^th at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship and having contended among top players with back-to-back 2^nd-place finishes in Australia in 2023, he should relish teeing it up against this quality of field.

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