DP World Tour Championship 2025 Betting Tips: ‘Twinning’ formula in Dubai?

Following a fantastic week in Abu Dhabi – where Aaron Rai returned from an eight-week absence to beat Tommy Fleetwood in a playoff at Yas Links – we now arrive at the final event of the 2024/25 DP World Tour season: the DP World Tour Championship at Jumeirah Golf Estates’ Earth Course.

Our golf tipster Jamie Worsley is back with his usual long-read preview of the event and has picked out three players he likes the look of this week. Check out Jamie's thoughts and his DP World Tour Championship 2025 Betting Tips below...

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Just like 2024, Rory McIlroy has a commanding lead in the Race to Dubai going into our final event, with 2025 breakout star Marco Penge next in the rankings. If Rory gets the job done this week, he'll become a seven-time Race to Dubai winner and will move into outright second on the all-time list behind Colin Montgomerie on eight wins – capping off a wonderful season for the Northern Irishman.

The end of the season also means that the challenge for those 10 highly-coveted PGA Tour cards reaches its climax. Marco Penge, Kristoffer Reitan, Adrian Saddier, John Parry, Alex Noren, Laurie Canter, Haotong Li, Daniel Brown, Keita Nakajima, and Jordan Smith currently occupy those spots. The intense battle to secure these positions adds another thrilling dimension to our season finale.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY 

The DP World Tour Championship replaced the Volvo Masters as the tour's season-ending event in 2009. It has taken place every year since, with each edition staged at the Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates.

Lee Westwood won the very first edition in 2009 and has been succeeded by nine different winners.

Henrik Stenson (2013, 2014) and Matt Fitzpatrick (2016, 2020) have both claimed the title twice. However, Jon Rahm (2017, 2019, 2022) went one better, and he was joined by Rory McIlroy in 2024, who won his third DP World Tour Championship following victories in 2012 and 2015.

Last five winners:

• 2024

Winner: Rory McIlroy (-15)

Runner-up: Rasmus Hojgaard (-13)

• 2023

Winner: Nicolai Hojgaard (-21)

Runners-up: Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland, Matt Wallace (-19)

• 2022

Winner: Jon Rahm (-20)

Runners-up: Tyrrell Hatton, Alex Noren (-18)

• 2021

Winner: Collin Morikawa (-17)

Runners-up: Alexander Bjork, Matt Fitzpatrick (-14)

• 2020

Winner: Matt Fitzpatrick (-15)

Runner-up: Lee Westwood (-14)

Rory was tied for the 54-hole lead with Rasmus Hojgaard in 2024 and largely dominated the final round to run out a two-shot winner. At the end of a stellar year, he returns to defend this week.

THE COURSE

Opening in 2009 and designed by Greg Norman, the immaculate Earth Course at Jumeirah Estates was created with this very championship in mind. It provides a solid all-round test of golf, averaging a winning score of -18.2 across the last 10 renewals.

The course plays as a par 72 and measures 7706 yards – making it one of the longest courses on the DP World Tour. It contains 4x par 3s (186-245 yards), 10x par 4s (371-499 yards), and 4x par 5s (572-651 yards).

This spacious, undulating venue is packed with elevation changes, frequently playing uphill into the greens. Holes are framed by tree-lined waste areas, whilst strikingly large bunkers offer protection, and water is a constant threat at the end, coming into play on four of the final five holes.

The fairways are wide, though they often bottleneck the further you go. Those unforgivingly deep bunkers are strategically placed, with many sitting in the middle of the landing area, and although the rough isn't especially long, it is thick and difficult to play from.

Bermudagrass covers the course, including on the huge, fast putting surfaces. These greens are challenging and showcase variety, displaying both subtle and more extreme breaks, whilst abundant bunkering and run-off areas guard their perimeters. They are easy to find, but rank 9^th in putting difficulty and are the 14^th-toughest to scramble around.

The finish at the Earth Course is one of the most exciting of the year: featuring two risk/reward par 5s, one short, attackable par 4, another longer par 4 protected by water, and a par 3 into an island green. The last of these is the mammoth 651-yard par-5 18^th – which has been extended by 31 yards since last year – where a creek splits the fairway and sits to the left of the narrow, undulating green.

It results in an intense and unpredictable conclusion every year, ensuring drama until the final putt is holed on Sunday.

THE WEATHER

This week's field will be welcomed by perfect conditions in Dubai. It is forecast to be bright and warm throughout, with temperatures exceeding 30°C each day. Accompanied by little more than a 4-7mph breeze, the Earth Course will have to rely on its own defences.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach/Greens-in-Regulation

High-class ball-striking is an absolute must around the Earth Course, and it's quality iron play into these large, undulating greens that carries the most importance.

Rory McIlroy ranked 2^nd in approach and 1^st in greens-in-regulation (GIR) when winning this event for the third time in 2024. Runner-up Rasmus Hojgaard ranked 12^th in approach, whilst 3^rd-place finishers, Shane Lowry and Adam Scott, ranked 3^rd and 7^th in approach, respectively.

2023 winner Nicolai Hojgaard excelled in approach, ranking 4^th. He was chased home by Matt Wallace, who ranked 8^th in approach and 4^th in GIR.

Jon Rahm ranked 2^nd in approach on his way to victory in 2022; Collin Morikawa ranked 5^th in this area when taking the title in 2021; and 2020 runner-up Lee Westwood ranked 2^nd.

• SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance

Driving it strongly has also been imperative in many recent renewals. Whilst length hasn't been a necessity, it is certainly a huge positive around such a long layout.

Rory was 2^nd off-the-tee (OTT) in 2025 and led the field in driving distance. Rasmus Hojgaard in 2^nd was 12^th OTT and the third-longest driver in the field, and 3^rd-place finisher Antoine Rozner ranked 4^th OTT and 9^th in driving distance.

Nicolai Hojgaard led the field in driving distance when he won in 2023; the 2022 champion Collin Morikawa ranked 6^th OTT and 10^th in driving distance; and big-hitting Jon Rahm has used his power to favourable effect to record three wins, ranking 3^rd OTT and 8^th in driving distance for his 2019 victory.

• SG: Putting (bermudagrass)

It doesn't carry as much weight as the long game, but players who have proved that they can putt well on fast and undulating bermudagrass greens are of obvious interest.

Rasmus Hojgaard pushed Rory McIlroy close last year due to his excellence on the greens, ranking 2^nd, and twin brother Nicolai ranked 6^th with the club when he took the title in 2023.

Jon Rahm regularly putts positively here, ranking 2^nd when he won in 2022; 2021 runners-up, Alexander Bjork and Matt Fitzpatrick ranked 1^st and 3^rd on the greens; and Fitzpatrick led the field with the club to win in 2020.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Abu Dhabi Championship (Yas Links)

While form across the Middle East is a plus, last week's Abu Dhabi Championship at Yas Links is not only a great guide for current form, but it also looks the perfect comp for the Earth Course.

Each of these undulating venues have generous, strategically bunkered fairways; large, heavily contoured greens; and they have similar rankings in scrambling and putting difficulty.

Notable correlating form:

Nicolai Hojgaard:

DPWTC (1^st) / Abu Dhabi (3^rd)

Tyrrell Hatton:

DPWTC (2^nd, 2^nd) / Abu Dhabi (2^nd, 6^th, 7^th)

Tommy Fleetwood:

DPWTC (2^nd, 2^nd) / Abu Dhabi (2^nd, 2^nd)

Matt Wallace:

DPWTC (2^nd, 2^nd) / Abu Dhabi (3^rd)

Victor Dubuisson:

DPWTC (2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th) / Abu Dhabi (4^th)

Viktor Hovland:

DPWTC (2^nd, 3^rd) / Abu Dhabi (4^th)

Alex Noren:

DPWTC (2^nd) / Abu Dhabi (5^th)

Antoine Rozner:

DPWTC (3^rd) / Abu Dhabi (6^th)

Francesco Molinari:

DPWTC (4^th, 4^th) / Abu Dhabi (5^th)

Thriston Lawrence:

DPWTC (5^th) / Abu Dhabi (6^th)

Victor Perez:

DPWTC (7^th, 8^th) / Abu Dhabi (1^st)

Jeff Winther:

DPWTC (9^th) / Abu Dhabi (6^th)

Qatar Masters (Doha Golf Club)

Doha Golf Club is another desert course that shares strong form ties with the Earth Course. It has comparable averages in greens-in-regulation, short-game difficulty, and bogey avoidance to this week's fellow Middle Eastern host.

Notable correlating form:

Victor Dubuisson:

DPWTC (2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th) / Qatar (9^th, 9^th, 9^th)

Branden Grace:

DPWTC (3^rd, 6^th) / Qatar (1^st, 1^st)

Mike Lorenzo-Vera:

DPWTC (3^rd) / Qatar (2^nd, 4^th)

Antoine Rozner:

DPWTC (3^rd) / Qatar (4^th, 6^th)

Bernd Wiesberger:

DPWTC (4^th) / Qatar (3^rd)

Adrian Otaegui:

DPWTC (4^th) / Qatar (5^th)

Emiliano Grillo:

DPWTC (4^th) / Qatar (5^th)

Byeong Hun An:

DPWTC (4^th) / Qatar (5^th)

Sami Valimaki:

DPWTC (5^th) / Qatar (1^st)

Jorge Campillo:

DPWTC (9^th, 9^th) / Qatar (2^nd, 2^nd)

Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

The Dunhill Links had as much crossover form with the DP World Tour Championship as any other event. This shouldn't come as much of a surprise, as these spacious venues with their wide fairways and large, undulating greens – which are similarly challenging to putt on – have plenty in common with the Earth Course.

Notable correlating form:

Matt Fitzpatrick:

DPWTC (1^st, 1^st) / Dunhill Links (1^st)

Danny Willett:

DPWTC (1^st, 4^th, 5^th) / Dunhill Links (1^st, 2^nd)

Tyrrell Hatton:

DPWTC (2^nd, 2^nd) / Dunhill Links (1^st, 1^st, 1^st)

Tommy Fleetwood:

DPWTC (2^nd, 2^nd) / Dunhill Links (2^nd, 2^nd)

Alex Noren:

DPWTC (2^nd) / Dunhill Links (2^nd, 3^rd)

Victor Dubuisson:

DPWTC (2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th) / Dunhill Links (3^rd, 5^th)

Shane Lowry:

DPWTC (2^nd, 3^rd, 5^th) / Dunhill Links (3^rd, 4^th)

Kiradech Aphibarnrat:

DPWTC (2^nd) / Dunhill Links (4^th)

Branden Grace:

DPWTC (3^rd, 6^th) / Dunhill Links (1^st)

Antoine Rozner:

DPWTC (3^rd) / Dunhill Links (4^th)

Robert MacIntyre:

DPWTC (4^th) / Dunhill Links (1^st)

Nicolas Colsaerts:

DPWTC (4^th) / Dunhill Links (2^nd)

Bernd Wiesberger:

DPWTC (4^th) / Dunhill Links (4^th, 7^th)

Tom Lewis:

DPWTC (6^th, 7^th) / Dunhill Links (3^rd, 5^th)

Victor Perez:

DPWTC (7^th, 8^th) / Dunhill Links (1^st)

Scottish Open (The Renaissance Club)

The Renaissance Club's rolling fairways are wide and have a similar level of strategic bunkering. With their big, sloping greens ranking as some of the toughest to putt on tour, it could be a useful guide this week.

Notable correlating form:

Matt Fitzpatrick:

DPWTC (1^st, 1^st) / Scottish (2^nd)

Nicolai Hojgaard:

DPWTC (1^st) / Scottish (4^th, 6^th)

Tommy Fleetwood:

DPWTC (2^nd, 2^nd) / Scottish (2^nd, 4^th)

Robert MacIntyre:

DPWTC (4^th) / Scottish (1^st, 2^nd)

Bernd Wiesberger:

DPWTC (4^th) / Scottish (1^st)

Byeong Hun An:

DPWTC (4^th) / Scottish (3^rd)

Nedbank Golf Challenge (Gary Player Country Club)

I'm going to finish with host of the Nedbank Golf Challenge, Gary Player Country Club. Top-class ball-strikers have thrived at this lengthy layout, which is closely matched to the Earth Course in driving and scrambling difficulty.

Notable correlating form:

Lee Westwood:

DPWTC (1^st) / Nedbank (1^st)

Nicolai Hojgaard:

DPWTC (1^st) / Nedbank (2^nd)

Tommy Fleetwood:

DPWTC (2^nd, 2^nd) / Nedbank (1^st, 1^st)

Victor Dubuisson:

DPWTC (2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th) / Nedbank (3^rd, 3^rd)

Matt Wallace:

DPWTC (2^nd, 2^nd) / Nedbank (5^th)

Rasmus Hojgaard:

DPWTC (2^nd) / Nedbank (6^th)

Branden Grace:

DPWTC (3^rd, 6^th) / Nedbank (1^st)

Bernd Wiesberger:

DPWTC (4^th) / Nedbank (3^rd)

Dean Burmester:

DPWTC (4^th, 4^th) / 2020 South African Open (4^th)

THE FIELD

The season finale is open to the top 50 available players in the Race to Dubai, and like last week, winning Ryder Cuppers, Ludvig Aberg and Shane Lowry, have been handed invitations.

World No. 2 Rory McIlroy is the highest ranking player in the field, leader of the Race to Dubai, and our defending champion. DP World Tour Championship debutant Marco Penge is next on those standings, followed by Tyrrell Hatton, and in the absence of the injured Viktor Hovland, No. 51 Brandon Robinson Thompson is the lucky last man into the field.

There are just two further former winners in attendance alongside Rory: Nicolai Hojgaard (2023) and Matt Fitzpatrick (2020, 2016). Meanwhile, among the 17 debutants – which includes the aforementioned Aberg, Penge, and Robinson Thompson – we have current No. 4 on the Race to Dubai Kristoffer Reitan, Open de France winner Michael Kim, and talented Dane, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen.

SELECTIONS 

Market leaders (1/4 5 places): Rory McIlroy 4/1, Tommy Fleetwood 11/2, Tyrrell Hatton 9/1, Ludvig Aberg 11/1, Robert MacIntyre 12/1, Matt Fitzpatrick 14/1

Rory McIlroy will obviously be a tough man to beat this week. He's already won the event three times and finished like a train in Abu Dhabi, signing off with a 10-under 62 – the best round of the week – to finish 3^rd. That being said, he's still not on consistently top form with his irons, which is enough to put me off such a price in an event that could turn into a shootout.

There are a lot of players with pressure on them this week, whether that be challenging for the Race to Dubai title or securing one of those sought after PGA Tour cards. However, that is not something that applies to the Hojgaard twins, who have each secured status on the PGA Tour for another year, and are also too far behind to challenge for the Race to Dubai.

With no pressure on their shoulders and excellent records at the Earth Course, both can freewheel and are likely to be extremely dangerous this week.

2.75 pts Nicolai Hojgaard each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 16/1

Nicolai Hojgaard fired a superb eight-under 64 to win this event from three off the pace back in 2023. He didn't make it into the field to defend his title in 2024, but arriving here after a superb ball-striking performance that took him to a 3^rd-place finish at Yas Links, he can regain the trophy this week.

Nicolai's game has looked in great shape in this second half of the year. He recorded his first solo top-five finish in the Scottish Open in July, backing it up with a 14^th-place finish in The Open. He then went close to winning the 4^th DP World Tour title of his career at the British Masters, finishing one shot behind eventual winner Alex Noren in 2^nd.

Three missed cuts followed that, but he rediscovered his form on the PGA Tour two starts ago, finishing 14^th in the Baycurrent Classic. He built on that in Abu Dhabi last week, firing rounds of 65-67-65-67 to finish 3^rd – one shot outside of the playoff between Aaron Rai and Tommy Fleetwood.

His irons have stood out in 2025, ranking 11^th in approach and 15^th in greens-in-regulation on the PGA Tour. In addition, the driver continues to be an asset, ranking 6^th off-the-tee and 1^st in driving distance at Yas Links, and he's also halted a poor run of performances with the putter.

That club hasn't been an issue for Nicolai in two visits here, gaining strokes on each occasion. He finished an impressive 4^th on debut in 2021, and returned to win two years later, beating the trio of Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland, and Matt Wallace by two strokes.

Correlating form figures of 2^nd in the Nedbank Challenge, 3^rd in the Abu Dhabi Championship, and 4^th and 6^th in the Scottish Open strengthen his already watertight case.

2.5 pts Rasmus Hojgaard each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 18/1

Playing his first full season as a PGA Tour member and making his Ryder Cup debut on that memorable week in New York, Rasmus Hojgaard has broken new ground in 2025. His results have been strong before and after that triumph, and he can sign off the DP World Tour season in style by going one better than his runner-up finish at the Earth Course last year.

Rasmus produced the best major performance of his career at The Open, finishing 16^th at Royal Portrush. He’s barely put a foot wrong since, finishing 2^nd in the Omega European Masters and Danish Golf Championship on the DP World Tour; following finishes of 3^rd in the Sanderson Farms Championship and 14^th in the Baycurrent Classic on the PGA Tour, he returned to action to finish 23^rd in last week’s Abu Dhabi Championship.

The driver has been key to his form, ranking 5^th off-the-tee and 6^th in driving distance on the DP World Tour. He’d also been solid with his irons previously, but they have gone missing in recent weeks. However, he’s compensated for that with the putter, ranking 10^th on tour overall, and he was 2^nd on those tricky, undulating surfaces in Abu Dhabi.

Rasmus has played in the last five renewals of this event and after initially struggling to find his feet he’s finally got the hang of it, finishing 7^th (2022), 11^th (2023), and 2^nd (2024) in the last three years. He’s particularly thrived on the greens here, and with top-10s in the Qatar Masters, Scottish Open, and Nedbank Challenge, it’s a layout that clearly suits his power-packed game.

1 pt Thriston Lawrence each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 70/1

Last up is the unpredictable but often exceptional Thriston Lawrence. He hasn’t quite managed to put his best foot forward in his rookie PGA Tour season, looking certain to drop off the tour next season. That said, he could still book his return there with a big performance this week, and as a five-time tour winner who has nothing to lose but a lot to gain, he represents value at a course where he’s gone well previously.

Lawrence missed 10 of his first 12 cuts this season, but he burst into life when returning to the DP World Tour in May, finishing 4^th in the Soudal Open. He looked like he may maintain form following that, finishing 12^th in the U.S. Open and 8^th in the Rocket Classic, though as he so often does, he’s blown hot and cold since.

He was without a top-40 finish in six starts when winning the European Masters at the end of August. His form again deserted him following that, producing results of MC-MC-48 on his next three appearances, but he contended in India four weeks ago, finishing 3^rd. With his general inconsistent play, I’m happy to ignore two poor performances since.

Lawrence finished down in 41^st when he made his debut at the Earth Course in 2022. However, he shone when 5^th in 2023, while a 30^th-place finish last year also offered promise.

His 6^th in Abu Dhabi in 2024 is an encouraging piece of form, and as a player who doesn’t need to be showing an awful lot to thrive on a suitable setup, don’t be surprised to see him in the mix come Sunday.

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