Alfred Dunhill Championship 2025 Betting Tips: Five to flourish in Joburg

After Nordic success for Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen and Kristoffer Reitan in last week’s Australian Open/Nedbank Challenge double-header, just two events remain on the DP World Tour calendar for 2025.

With a trip to the Indian Ocean awaiting the players in next week’s season-ending Mauritius Open, we first head to South Africa for the Alfred Dunhill Championship at Royal Johannesburg’s esteemed East Course.

Our golf tipster Jamie Worsley tipped up Reitan last week and is back with his usual long-read preview of the event. He's picked out five players he likes the look of this week, so check out Jamie's thoughts and his Alfred Dunhill Championship 2025 Betting Tips below...

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*You can bet on the tournament and check out the latest Alfred Dunhill Championship 2025 Odds over on betfred.com

TOURNAMENT HISTORY 

The Alfred Dunhill Championship debuted in 2000 and has been a mainstay on the DP World Tour calendar since. It was staged at Leopard Creek Country Club from 2004 but will take a one-stop detour to Royal Johannesburg's East Course this week.

Global stars such as Adam Scott (2001), Justin Rose (2002), and Ernie Els (2005) have all gotten their hands on this trophy. However, nobody has enjoyed as much success in the event as home favourite Charl Schwartzel, who has recorded four wins (2004, 2012, 2013, 2015).

Spain's Pablo Martin is the only other player to claim multiple victories in the Alfred Dunhill Championship, winning back-to-back in 2009 and 2010.

Last five winners:

• 2024

Winner: Shaun Norris (-13)

Runners-up: Ryan Van Velzen, John Parry, Marcus Kinhult (-12)

• 2023

Winner: Louis Oosthuizen (-18)

Runner-up: Charl Schwartzel (-16)

• 2022

Winner: Ockie Strydom (-18)

Runner-up: Adrian Otaegui (-16)

• 2020

Winner: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-14)

Runners-up: Richard Bland, Sean Crocker, Adrian Meronk, Jayden Schaper (-10)

• 2019

Winner: Pablo Larrazabal (-8)

Runner-up: Joel Sjoholm (-7)

A chaotic final round in 2024 allowed Shaun Norris – who trailed by six shots entering Sunday – to come through and pick up his second DP World Tour title. He returns to defend at this alternate host course.

THE COURSE

Royal Johannesburg's East Course was completed by Robert Grimsdell in 1935 and is often rated among South Africa's greatest golf courses. It was upgraded by Golf Data in 2018, with only subtle changes made – including the removal of trees and the repositioning of bunkers to become more penal for longer hitters.

Although it is hosting this event for the very first time – as Leopard Creek undergoes a period of recovery due to intense usage – Royal Johannesburg is no stranger to high-profile golf tournaments. It held the Joburg Open from 2007 to 2017, the prestigious South African Amateur Championship in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2024, and it has staged the last two editions of the Sunshine Tour's Tournament of Champions.

The course is a par 72 measuring a lengthy 7656 yards. However, situated at around 5750ft above sea level, the ball flies much further up here and it will play closer to 7150 yards. It contains 4x par 3s (177-253 yards), 10x par 4s (387-512 yards) and 4x par 5s (516-580 yards).

This pristine parkland is tree-lined and features subtle elevation changes. Strategic bunkering helps shape many of the holes, whilst water is a constant menace, in play on 10 holes.

The kikuyu fairways are reasonably narrow and often slope back towards the water. Sand traps intelligently guard the landing areas, often sitting in the middle of the short grass, and snatchy rough provides additional protection.

Bentgrass covers the sloping greens, which are quick and predominantly elevated. These small surfaces are well bunkered and surrounded by smooth run-offs, creating a demanding short-game challenge for players who lack accuracy with their approach play.

With three of the four par 5s coming up on the front nine, players need to do their scoring at the start before tackling the more difficult inward half, which begins with two brutally difficult par 4s – the 518-yard 10^th and the 500-yard 11^th holes.

That being said, the challenge at Royal Johannesburg's East Course is very much dependent on conditions. It can be tough with a little wind or when firm, but birdies have always flowed in more benign conditions. This has again been the case in those recent Sunshine Tour events, with the last two renewals of the Tournament of Champions won in scores of -18 (2025) and -23 (2024), on an albeit composite layout.

THE WEATHER

Thunderstorms are predicted to arrive on each of the three days prior to the start of the tournament, leaving us with a likely receptive course. Although we could see gusting winds at upwards of 25mph on Friday, general wind speeds throughout the week of 4-7mph shouldn't trouble the field, meaning we should witness some low scoring this week.

KEY STATS

• SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
• SG: Approach/Greens-in-Regulation
• SG: Putting (bentgrass)

As a soft, lengthy course with small greens, I expect long and strong ball-strikers – who have a decent touch on bentgrass greens – to thrive. This was often the blueprint for success when the Joburg Open was held here.

The 2016 edition of that event saw the big-hitting Haydn Porteous beat fellow power-player Zander Lombard by two strokes. Meanwhile, other past winners such as George Coetzee (2014), Richard Sterne (2013, 2008), Branden Grace (2012), and Charl Schwartzel (2011, 2010) were all above average in driving distance when they topped the leaderboard.

Despite recent course changes aiming to somewhat thwart the lengthier players, it hasn't. Monster driver Kieran Vincent won by four here in the Sunshine Tour's Tournament of Champions earlier in the year, whilst back in the 2021 Kit Kat Pro-Am – another Sunshine Tour event – Rhys Enoch led home Dean Burmester on a power-packed leaderboard.

CORRELATING EVENTS

I'm going to stay predominantly in South Africa for this week's comp courses and there's none that appeal more than Glendower Golf Club. Host of the 2024 Jonsson Workwear Open and the South African Open from 2013 to 2018, the course is at altitude and of a similar length to Royal Johannesburg's East Course. The tree-lined fairways are narrow, protected by strategic bunkering, kikuyu rough, and they possess quick, sloping bentgrass greens.

Many of those same characteristics also apply to last week's Nedbank Challenge host Gary Player Country Club. Additionally, Houghton Golf Club, which has staged the Joburg Open since 2022, is another venue at altitude that is strongly bunkered, with kikuyu rough and small bentgrass greens.

Lastly, I think the Kenya Open at Muthaiga Golf Club is worth checking out. It's again at altitude, with narrow fairways, kikuyu rough and small, slick bentgrass greens.

THE FIELD

Thriston Lawrence is the top-ranked player in this week's field at No. 64. He is joined by fellow top-100 players Christiaan Bezuidenhout (No. 80), Aldrich Potgieter (No. 83) and John Parry (No. 92).

Shaun Norris is our defending champion and one of nine former winners in attendance, alongside Louis Oosthuizen (2023), Ockie Strydom (2022), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (2020), Pablo Larrazabal (2019), Brandon Stone (2016), Branden Grace (2014), Richard Sterne (2008) and Marcel Siem (2004).

The field includes 14 of the 20 HotelPlanner Tour graduates from last season, led by the highest-ranking player, South Africa's JC Ritchie. That home challenge is further strengthened by LIV's Dean Burmester, Daniel Van Tonder, and the No. 16 amateur in the world Daniel Bennett.

SELECTIONS 

Market leaders (1/4 - 5 places): Christiaan Bezuidenhout @ 11/1, Angel Ayora @ 14/1, Jayden Schaper @ 16/1, Dean Burmester @ 20/1, Branden Grace @ 22/1

2.5 pts Dean Burmester each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 18/1

Winning the Joburg Open and South African Open in back-to-back weeks at the end of 2023, Dean Burmester is always a threat when he returns home. He has a promising record at Royal Johannesburg and having finished 3^rd on his second-to-last start in Saudi, he looks primed to strike.

Burmester claimed his second LIV victory back in August in Chicago, which was one of four top-five finishes on the tour this year. He's teed it up on the Asian Tour since LIV's season ended, where he recorded that 3^rd-place finish at Riyadh Golf Club in the Saudi International – an event in which he was tied for the lead going into the final round.

This big-hitter has been typically strong off the tee this season, ranking among the top 50 in SG: Off-the-Tee (SG: OTT). He's also managed to maintain the improvements with his irons that were on display last year, ranking 12^th on LIV in greens-in-regulation (GIR).

He played in six Joburg Opens at the East Course, and after taking a little time to find his feet, he recorded finishes of 13^th in 2015, 31^st in 2016 and 11^th in 2017. He also finished 2^nd here in the 2021 Kit Kat Group Pro-Am on the Sunshine Tour.

As a winner of the Joburg Open in 2023 and having finished 4^th at both Glendower Golf Club and Gary Player Country Club in the respective 2017 and 2020 South African Opens, this is a venue that clearly suits Burmester's game. I expect him to prove that in the soft conditions this week.

1.5 pts Hennie Du Plessis each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 33/1

Hennie Du Plessis has been in electric form since returning from an over 18-month absence due to wrist injuries. He’s gone well here previously and as a superb, lengthy driver who has some encouraging comp form, I’m keen to have him on side.

Making his first start since the Jonsson Workwear Open in March of last year, Du Plessis blew the field away at the Blue Label Unlimited Challenge on the Sunshine Tour at the end of October. He won that tournament in incredible fashion by a huge 14-point margin in a Stableford format.

He backed it up with a 4^th-place finish in the Sunshine Tour’s Players Championship on his next start. When we last saw him, he went close to picking up a second title in three appearances, finishing runner-up in the Sunshine Tour’s PGA Championship.

The South African is all about the ball-striking and especially the driver, ranking 5^th in driving distance and 19^th in SG: OTT on the DP World Tour in 2024. It’s hard to know where the rest of his game is at but he’s usually a strong iron player and producing many positive putting displays on bentgrass, this layout is an ideal fit.

Although Du Plessis missed the cut here in the 2015 and 2017 Joburg Opens, that was still very much at the beginning of his career and he delivered a much improved effort on his most recent start, finishing 5^th in the 2021 Kit Kat Pro-Am. He’s also twice finished inside the top 10 at Gary Player Country Club, increasing optimism that he can keep this superb run going.

1 pt Kieran Vincent each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 70/1

Kieran Vincent won on that composite layout at Royal Johannesburg’s East Course in the Sunshine Tour’s Tournament of Champions back in May. The manner of his four-shot victory there – which was achieved despite scoring a nine on the par-4 3^rd in the final round – was extremely impressive, and he’s fancied to make that experience count on his return.

Vincent lost his LIV status after 2024 and has spent this year playing across a variety of tours. He was in fine form at the beginning of the year, finishing 6^th in the Joburg Open and 25^th in the South African Open. He arrives in good shape after a recent stint on the Asian Tour, making each of his last five cuts and recording a season’s best of 3^rd in the Jakarta International Championship at the beginning of October.

He excels with the driver, combining power with a reasonable level of accuracy, ranking 26^th in driving distance and 67^th in driving accuracy on the Asian Tour. The irons are also in decent condition, ranking 31^st in GIR and he’s converting plenty of those birdie chances, ranking 24^th in putts per GIR.

Vincent hadn’t played here professionally prior to his victory earlier in the year. That 6^th in the Joburg Open in March is another plus, and as a player who has already won on the Sunshine and Asian Tours in his short career, I’m confident he can take that next step.

1 pt Robin Williams each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 110/1

Following a disappointing 2024/25 campaign Robin Williams has lost full playing privileges for the new season. However, he’s still secured starts in Australia in these first two weeks and appears to have found a new lease of life. With his long game looking better than it has for over 12 months, he’ll be a danger back home in South Africa.

Williams recorded just three top-20 finishes in the previous season, including a best of 7^th in the Turkish Airlines Open. He went one-for-one in this regard in the Australian PGA Championship two weeks ago, finishing 19^th, and again made the cut in Melbourne, where he finished 46^th.

The driver was usually his biggest weapon and after a largely disappointing 2025 with the club, it returned to the fore down under. He ranked 1^st in SG: OTT in the Aussie PGA and 3^rd in the Aussie Open – also placing among the longest and straightest in both events. Solid approach displays have seen him rank inside the top 10 from tee-to-green in each, and he’s also hit the top 10 in GIR.

Williams played here in the 2020 South African Amateur, finishing 9^th, and he then finished 19^th in 2024’s Tournament of Champions. He was 14^th in the Joburg Open at Houghton Golf Club this year and having twice won at Glendower Golf Club in the Fortress Invitational on the Sunshine Tour, Royal Johannesburg’s East Course is a venue at which he can shine.

1 pt Christiaan Burke each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 175/1

Christiaan Burke is one of the standout performers on the Sunshine Tour at present, consistently knocking on the door of his first pro win. He has plenty of experience of this course from his amateur days, finishing 2^nd in the 2021 Central Gauteng Open as an amateur, and having already proven that he can compete at this level, the talented youngster could spring a surprise at big odds.

Burke hasn’t finished outside the top 20 across his last seven starts. He’s had three top-five finishes over that time, including equalling his best result on the Sunshine Tour since turning pro in 2022, when 2^nd in the Stella Artois Players Championship.

Ranking 4^th in driving distance, not only is he one of the longest players in South Africa, but he complements that with a reasonable level of accuracy, ranking 55^th. He’s also top-20 in GIR, and at 28^th in putting, he’s adept at converting the countless birdie chances he creates.

That skillset should serve Burke well here, as shown by his playoff loss to Casey Jarvis in that 2021 Central Gauteng Open. Meanwhile, finishing 5^th in last year’s Mauritius Open, returning to this level should hold no fear for the 25-year-old.

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