Abu Dhabi Championship 2025 Betting Tips: Can Fitzy get it done at Yas Links?

The DP World Tour’s season-ending playoffs get underway this week with the Abu Dhabi Championship at Yas Links, the first of two decisive events that will determine the 2025 Race to Dubai champion.

With just the top 50 players on those season-long rankings advancing to next week’s DP World Tour Championship at Jumeirah Estates’ Earth Course, it’s sure to be an exciting and nervy week in the U.A.E.

Our golf tipster Jamie Worsley is on-hand with his comprehensive preview of the event and has picked out four players he likes the look of this week. Check out Jamie's thoughts and his Abu Dhabi Championship 2025 Betting Tips below...

*You can bet on the tournament and check out the latest Abu Dhabi Championship 2025 Odds over on betfred.com

TOURNAMENT HISTORY 

The Abu Dhabi Championship was first held in 2006 and was originally staged at Abu Dhabi Golf Club, before Yas Links took over hosting duties in 2022. Having been played in January throughout its history, it was moved to this end-of-season slot in 2024 as the first event of the playoffs, and it is open to the top 70 players in the Race to Dubai.

Martin Kaymer is the most successful player in the tournament's history, recording three victories in 2008, 2010 and 2011. There are just two other players to win multiple editions: the English duo of Paul Casey (2007, 2009) and Tommy Fleetwood (2017, 2018).

Last five winners:

• 2024 (Yas Links)

Winner: Paul Waring (-24)

Runner-up: Tyrrell Hatton (-22)

• 2023 (Yas Links)

Winner: Victor Perez (-18)

Runners-up: Min Woo Lee, Sebastian Soderberg (-17)

• 2022 (Yas Links)

Winner: Thomas Pieters (-10)

Runners-up: Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Shubhankar Sharma (-9)

• 2021 (Abu Dhabi Golf Club)

Winner: Tyrrell Hatton (-18)

Runner-up: Jason Scrivener (-14)

• 2020 (Abu Dhabi Golf Club)

Winner: Lee Westwood (-19)

Runners-up: Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Victor Perez (-17)

Paul Waring claimed the biggest win of his career in Abu Dhabi last year, which, in turn, helped him secure a first ever season on the PGA Tour. However, due to a 2025 campaign that has been plagued by a shoulder injury, he does not return to defend this week.

THE COURSE

Yas Links opened for play in 2010 and was designed by American Kyle Phillips – architect of fellow DP World Tour courses such as Kingsbarns (Dunhill Links) and Bernardus Golf (2021-2023 KLM Open).

The course is a par 72 and will again measure 7425 yards this week. It contains 4x par 3s (154-212 yards), 10x par 4s (359-486 yards), and 4x par 5s (534-646 yards).

Situated on the west coast of Yas Island, Phillips turned an ordinary piece of land into a spectacularly undulating and dramatic modern links. Wide open and exposed, the course is strongly defended by water (in play on nine holes) and native areas filled with cacti, shrubs, and local grasses.

It's packed with enticing risk/reward holes, but it especially comes to life over the closing six, on which five holes run alongside the water hazards. This includes the mammoth 646-yard par-5 18^th, where water hugs the entire left-hand side of the hole from start to finish.

Paspalum covers the course, including in the extremely generous and sloping fairways. Although large, deep, and strategically-placed bunkers offer protection, they have been among the easiest fairways to hit on the DP World Tour in recent seasons.

The huge, heavily contoured greens are easy to find but possess some brutally difficult pin positions, and, ranking 1^st and 4^th in putting and scrambling difficulty respectively, they and their surrounds provide one of the most demanding short-game tests on tour.

These open-fronted surfaces are littered with run-off areas, which cause inaccurate approaches to tumble into intimidating greenside bunkers and tightly-mown chipping areas.

As we saw during Thomas Pieters' victory in 2022 with a score of -10, Yas Links can prove a tough nut to crack in windy conditions. However, scoring has been much lower in the last two calmer editions – with -18 winning in 2023 and -24 in 2024 – and with similarly benign weather on the cards, birdies may again be the order of the day in Abu Dhabi.

THE WEATHER

This week's forecast mirrors what we saw in 2024. It's predicted to be bright throughout, with temperatures exceeding 30°C each day and while we could see sporadic gusts of close to 20mph, general wind speeds of 4-7mph shouldn't cause too many problems.

KEY STATS

• SG: Putting (paspalum)/Three-Putt Avoidance

Conquering these huge, undulating, and challenging putting surfaces is the key to taming Yas Links. With that, it's no surprise to see the putter carry major importance in recent renewals, whilst the players' ability to avoid three-putting has proven equally vital.

Last year's winner Paul Waring ranked 7^th on the greens and was 9^th in three-putt avoidance. Runner-up Tyrrell Hatton ranked 16^th in putting and 1^st in three-putt avoidance, and 3^rd-place finisher Rory McIlroy ranked 6^th with the putter and 9^th in three-putt avoidance.

The winner in 2023, Victor Perez, ranked 5^th in putting and 4^th in three-putt avoidance. His nearest challenger Sebastian Soderberg ranked 2^nd on the greens and 14^th in three-putt avoidance.

Although 2022 winner Thomas Pieters excelled in other areas, the two players tied for 2^nd – Shubhankar Sharma and Rafa Cabrera-Bello – ranked 1^st and 2^nd on the greens, respectively.

• SG: Approach

Being able to access the tricky pin positions is another serious asset, bringing strong iron players to the fore in the events staged at Yas Links.

Paul Waring shone in this area in 2024, ranking 2^nd. Runner-up Tyrrell Hatton also stood out in this area, ranking 8^th and 3^rd-place finisher Matt Wallace ranked 3^rd.

Victor Perez didn't set the world alight with his irons in 2023 but two of his nearest challengers did – runner-up Min Woo Lee ranked 8^th and 4^th-place finisher Padraig Harrington ranked 2^nd. Meanwhile, four of the top five in 2022 ranked inside the top 25 in approach.

• Driving Distance

Though we have seen a mixture of longer and more accurate types go well here, there's no doubt that these extremely generous fairways look inviting to the bigger hitters in the field.

Paul Waring is not as long as he once was, but Rory McIlroy and Matt Wallace also finished inside the top five last year, while other power players such as Antoine Rozner, Ugo Coussaud, Tom McKibbin, and Niklas Norgaard were at the top of the leaderboard.

Each of the top four in 2023 ranked inside the top 10 for driving distance that week, and 2022 winner Thomas Pieters is another lengthy driver of the ball.

CORRELATING EVENTS

There are several lines we can follow for correlating events this week, beginning with other DP World Tour venues designed by Kyle Phillips. Kingsbarns is perhaps his most famous design and is of course one of the three courses used in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. With two rounds of that tournament also played at St Andrews – another course with wide fairways and large, undulating greens – it's no surprise that this event has produced the most comp form with Yas Links.

Other courses designed by Phillips include Dundonald Links (2017 Scottish Open) and Bernardus Golf (2021-2023 KLM/Dutch Open) – both undulating, links-like layouts – and 2024 Czech Masters host PGA National OAKS Prague.

Due to their exposed, linksy nature, and common usage of paspalum grass, golf in the Middle East in general should be a helpful pointer. I particularly like Bahrain Championship host Royal Golf Club – a heavily sloping course with wide fairways and large greens – but Doha Golf Club (Qatar Masters) and Al Hamra Golf Club (Ras Al Khaimah Championship) should also be useful.

Returning to links layouts, form in the Open Championship, Scottish Open, Irish Open (2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2024), or Nexo Championship bodes well.

Lastly, as a spacious and hilly course with wide fairways and large paspalum greens, the Singapore Classic at Laguna National's Classic Course is worth considering.

THE FIELD

The top 70 players on the Race to Dubai automatically qualify for this event, but the field has been expanded to 72 this year with Ludvig Aberg and Shane Lowry receiving special exemptions. Despite qualifying, Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, Justin Rose, and Matt Wallace are all absent.

Rory McIlroy is the top-ranked player in the field at No. 2 in the world and also the current leader on the Race to Dubai. He is one of seven from inside the top 25, closely followed by No. 5 Tommy Fleetwood and No. 7 Robert MacIntyre.

2021 winner Tyrrell Hatton is the most recent champion in attendance and one of only three former winners in the field, alongside the aforementioned Shane Lowry (2019) and Tommy Fleetwood (2018, 2017).

Also in action is the second-ranked player on the Race to Dubai Marco Penge; recent two-time winner Alex Noren will tee it up; American Michael Kim will make his debut in the event after winning the Open de France; and surprise winner of the Genesis Championship in South Korea two weeks ago, Junghwan Lee, makes his first start as a full member of the DP World Tour.

SELECTIONS 

Market leaders (1/4 5 places): Rory McIlroy 5/1, Tommy Fleetwood 11/2, Tyrrell Hatton 17/2, Ludvig Aberg 10/1, Robert MacIntyre 14/1, Matt Fitzpatrick 16/1

3 pts Matt Fitzpatrick each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 16/1

Few players have been performing as consistently as Matt Fitzpatrick, who hasn't missed a cut since April. He's hitting his irons better than ever at present, and with plenty of form in the Middle East and on links/links-like courses, I'm expecting him to thrive on his Yas Links debut.

Fitzpatrick was slow to get going this year, but he's barely put a foot wrong since missing the cut in the Zurich Classic at the end of April. The Englishman has made the weekend in each of his last 15 appearances, recording 12 top-25 finishes and eight top-10s, which includes strongest efforts of 4^th in The Open and Scottish Open.

He ranks as the seventh-best golfer in the world over this time. Although he's been typically strong with his short game, ranking 1^st around-the-greens and 8^th in putting on the DP World Tour, I've been especially impressed by his approach play, ranking 7^th. When added to the extra length he's picked up in recent years, he has an enticing profile for Yas Links.

Fitzpatrick has finished 2^nd and 3^rd in this event at Abu Dhabi Golf Club in the past, but he hasn't teed it up in Abu Dhabi since the tournament moved to Yas Links. However, he has won the DP World Tour Championship on two occasions in nearby Dubai, and as a proven links performer – who won the Dunhill Links in 2023, has finishes of 2^nd, 4^th, and 6^th in the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club, and picked up an Open Championship best of 4^th this year – I am confident he has the game to get up to speed with the test pretty sharply.

2.5 pts Alex Noren each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 20/1

Alex Noren arrives in Abu Dhabi with two victories to his name across his last five starts. Whilst both of those wins came on traditional parkland layouts, he is a player who has excelled on links courses throughout his career and looking comfortable at Yas Links when 5^th on his debut in 2023, I’m taking the Swede to make it a hat-trick of wins for 2025 this week.

Noren returned from a seven-month absence due to a hamstring injury in May, and signs were positive from the get-go. He surprised everyone by contending in the PGA Championship – entering the final round in 2^nd before his lack of playing time finally caught up with him in round four, slipping to 17^th – but he failed to build on that in the following five events.

His form turned around in the 3M Open, finishing 7^th, and he went from strength to strength thereafter. A 3^rd-place finish in the Wyndham Championship followed that, before he produced a superb weekend performance to win the British Masters at The Belfry, and just two starts later he doubled his tally at Wentworth in the BMW PGA Championship – beating Adrien Saddier in a playoff.

He ranks second in this field in SG: Total over the last three months. It’s no surprise to see him putting well (ranking 2^nd to Tommy Fleetwood since the end of July), but he’s also shining in approach, gaining strokes in each of his last five appearances for which data has been recorded.

That ability with the putter dragged him to a 5^th-place finish here in 2023 as he led the field on the greens. As a player who has won the Scottish Open (2016), finished 2^nd and 3^rd in the Dunhill Links, and has two top-10s in The Open and Qatar Masters, this is a challenge that suits him to a tee, and I expect him to once again showcase his links talents in Abu Dhabi.

1 pt Haotong Li each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 70/1

Next up is Haotong Li, who showed signs that he’s rediscovered his form at the Genesis Championship two weeks ago. He failed to make the cut on his two previous visits here, but his game is in much better shape now, and possessing an abundance of form on similar layouts, I’m certain he can be a contender at Yas Links.

Haotong didn’t miss a cut over the first six months of the season, over which time he secured a fourth DP World Tour win in Qatar. He then hit the top five on three further occasions, finishing 2^nd in the Turkish Airlines Open, 4^th in the Soudal Open, and 4^th in the China Open.

His run of cuts made ended in the Scottish Open, but he bounced back immediately, finishing a hugely impressive 4^th in The Open when paired with Scottie Scheffler in the final round. He then finished 8^th in the British Masters two starts following that, but he’s struggled a little since, failing to record a top-60 finish on the DP World Tour in his four starts prior to finishing 21^st in the Genesis Championship – an event where he shared the first-round lead.

The long game has looked superb for most of the season. His iron play stands out, ranking 5^th in approach and 6^th in greens-in-regulation, whilst he also sits inside the top 25 off-the-tee and in driving distance. He has toiled with the putter of late, but he looked better two weeks ago in Korea, and having putted well on similarly large and undulating paspalum greens to win the Qatar Masters, he’s capable of keeping it rolling this week.

Li made a decent start to this event in 2022, opening with a two-under 70 to sit 36^th in round one, but he was blown away by the wind when shooting a 78 to miss the cut in round two. He also endured a torrid time at the course in 2023 – an event in which he started with a 12-over 84 – but that came at a time when he was playing some of the absolute worst golf of his career.

The Chinese star is a different prospect this time around and in possession of bundles of comp form – that win in Qatar strengthened by 3^rd and 4^th-place finishes in The Open and two top-10s in the Dunhill Links – the 10^th-ranked player on the Race to Dubai can go a long way towards securing a 2026 PGA Tour card this week.

1 pt Joakim Lagergren each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 100/1

Speaking of those 10 highly-coveted PGA Tour cards, Joakim Lagergren currently sits in 12^th position in those standings. It would be quite the story if the Swede could go from losing his DP World Tour card in 2023 to earning PGA Tour status just two years later. As a Dunhill Links specialist who has form in Qatar, this course provides him with the ideal opportunity to turn that into a reality.

Lagergren’s return to the DP World Tour has shown promise right from the off, as he finished 8^th in Bahrain and 13^th in Kenya over his first four outings this year. He stepped up on those efforts in a big way at the KLM Open, finishing 2^nd, and he’s enjoying his most consistent spell of the season at present, making each of his last seven cuts and recording another runner-up finish in the Irish Open – where an inspired Rory McIlroy broke his heart.

He's always been a player who excels on the greens and that has again been the case in 2025, ranking 28^th on tour. Although not as long as he once was, he’s still far from short off the tee, and I’ve been encouraged by his iron play in recent starts, ranking 7^th in approach in the Irish Open, and 5^th two starts ago in the Open de Espana.

Much like Haotong Li, Lagergren missed the cut on his only previous visits to Yas Links in 2022 and 2023. That said, playing some of the best golf of his DP World Tour career this season, I’m happy to overlook those results, and with finishes of 2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th and 4^th to his name in the Dunhill Links, as well as a runner-up finish in the 2017 Qatar Masters, there’s no doubt he has the skillset to handle this layout.

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