DP World Tour Championship 2024 Tips: Bobby the boy in Dubai

The DP World Tour comes to a conclusion this weekend, with the season-ending DP World Tour Championship in Dubai.

As always, here is Jamie Worsley's comprehensive preview and DP World Tour Championship 2024 Tips, featuring three selections ranging from 18/1 all the way out to 80/1...

The DP World Tour provides us with fabulous stories season after season and we can add last week’s Abu Dhabi Championship to the list of memorable events in 2024.

After his five-shot 36-hole lead was reduced to one heading into Sunday’s final round, Paul Waring would’ve been forgiven for struggling on that last day, with several star names, such as Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton and Shane Lowry all now within touching distance of the lead. However, there was no such thing from the Englishman, as he shot an impressively composed bogey-free 66 on his way to a two-shot victory over a charging Tyrrell Hatton.

It was just his second win on tour, far outweighing his victory in Sweden six years earlier, and it is certain to see him to a high enough finish in the Race to Dubai to earn a first stab at the PGA Tour next season, at 39-years-old.

We have now reached the climax to the DPWT season and there are many things still to be decided in our season-ending tournament: the DP World Tour Championship at Jumeirah Golf Estates’ Earth Course.

Rory McIlroy has a commanding advantage in the Race to Dubai, with South Africa’s Thriston Lawrence the only man who can deny him. However, to do so he’ll need to win the event and hope Rory has an underwhelming week.

In addition to that, we’ve also got the matter of finding out where those 10 PGA Tour cards will go. They’re available to the top 10 players in the R2D not already exempt and the likes of Thriston Lawrence, Rasmus Hojgaard and Waring have already sewn up that spot. The nerviest player will be Jordan Smith, who currently occupies 17^th position on the Race to Dubai, which as of now gives him a narrow lead over Tom McKibbin in the battle for that final tour card.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The DP World Tour Championship debuted in 2009 as the Dubai World Championship, replacing the Volvo Masters as the tour’s final event of the season. It has been staged every season since, with each edition taking place here at the Earth Course at the Jumeirah Golf Estates.

Jon Rahm is the most successful player in the history of the event with three victories, which came in 2017, 2019 and 2022. This is one ahead of three players who have each recorded three wins: Henrik Stenson (2013, 2014), Rory McIlroy (2012, 2015) and Matt Fitzpatrick (2016, 2020).

Last five winners:

• 2023 – Winner: Nicolai Hojgaard (-21); runners-up: Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland, Matt Wallace (-19)
• 2022 – Winner: Jon Rahm (-20); runners-up: Tyrrell Hatton, Alex Noren (-18)
• 2021 – Winner: Collin Morikawa (-17); runners-up: Alexander Bjork, Matt Fitzpatrick (-14)
• 2020 – Winner: Matt Fitzpatrick (-15); runner-up: Lee Westwood (-14)
• 2019 – Winner: Jon Rahm (-19); runner-up: Tommy Fleetwood (-18)

Nicolai Hojgaard beat a stellar field to claim the biggest win of his career in last year’s renewal, doing so by shooting a superb closing 64 to make up a three-shot deficit heading into the final round. Unfortunately, he’s failed to make it inside the top 50 on the Race to Dubai this season and therefore, won’t return to defend his title.

THE COURSE

The Earth Course at the Jumeirah Golf Estates is a Greg Norman design that opened in 2009 and was developed with the intention to host this event.

This par 72 is one of the longest courses played on tour, measuring in at 7675 yards. It possesses 10x par 4s (371-499 yards), 4x par 5s (572-626 yards) and 4x par 3s (186-245 yards).

The difficulty of the challenge varies depending on the weather, though we do arrive here off the back of two winning scores of -20 or better in a row. The event has an average winning score of -18.3 across the last 10 renewals.

This pristine and undulating course is beset with elevation changes, often playing uphill into the greens. Although holes are bordered by tree-lined waste areas, there is still a very open and spacious feel about it, whilst water only really comes into play at the end, featuring on four of the closing five holes.

The fairways are predominantly wide, though many bottleneck the further down you go. They are strewn with intimidatingly deep and large strategic bunkering, which occasionally sit in the middle of the short grass and while the rough appears short, it is lush and not easy to play out of.

The bermudagrass greens are huge, speedy and possess both subtle and more dramatic breaks. There are many different pin positions possible on the uniquely-shaped surfaces, many of which are protected by strong bunkering to the front and feature a catalogue of run-off areas. Though they rank among the easiest greens to hit on tour, they’re tough to scramble around and more pertinently, rank as the eighth-toughest to putt on.

The finish here is as exciting and varied as anywhere on tour, with the final five holes featuring two risk/reward par 5s, a shorter par 4, a lengthier par 4 guarded by water and par 3 into an island green.

The last three begins with the 486-yard par 4 16^th. It is home to one of the widest fairways on the course, which is heavily protected by bunkers. Avoiding the sand only make the job a little easier, with a lake sitting to the right-hand side of an incredibly shallow putting surface.

Whilst the 17^th isn’t the longest par 3 on the course at 195 yards, it is certainly the most daunting, especially when pins are placed on the narrow back section of the island green. Missing the water isn’t the only necessity here, with four bunkers which sit well below the level of the putting surface representing a big challenge in their own right.

We then come to the 620-yard par 5 18^th. A creek runs up the middle of this uphill hole, splitting the fairway and sitting to the left of a narrow, undulating putting surface. A tough up-and-down from the bunker or chipping area makes for a nervy shot back towards the water for those bailing out right of the green.

It’s a fine closing hole and tournament organisers and fans alike will be hoping that the tournament is still up for grabs here on Sunday to create maximum drama.

THE WEATHER

I spoke about how the weather will dictate the demands of this test and fortunately for the players, the forecast doesn’t look particularly troublesome.

Heat and humidity may turn out to be the biggest issue, with clear, hot and sunny conditions forecast for each day of the event. Whilst there is predicted to be a constant breeze, it shouldn’t do too much damage at around 10mph.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach/Greens-in-Regulation

I’m keen to side with high-class, lengthy ball-striking types this week, though it’s unlocking these large, difficult greens with quality iron play that should matter most.

Nicolai Hojgaard excelled in approach play on his way to taking the title last year, ranking 4^th and was closely followed by Matt Wallace in joint-2^nd, who ranked 4^th in greens-in-regulation and 8^th in approach.

2022 champion, Jon Rahm also had the irons firing, ranking 2^nd in approach and 7^th in GIR. This necessity was franked by each of his closest challengers, with runners-up, Tyrrell Hatton and Alex Noren ranking 3^rd and 7^th in approach respectively, as well as being inside the top 5 in GIR.

Collin Morikawa predictably shone with the clubs when winning in 2021, ranking 4^th for GIR and 5^th in approach; Matt Fitzpatrick ranked 6^th in GIR in the difficult 2020 edition, whilst runner-up Lee Westwood was 2^nd in approach; and 2019 champion, Jon Rahm ranked 1^st for GIR and 12^th in approach, with Tommy Fleetwood in 2^nd the leading iron player in that year’s field.

• SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance

The driver is another area that is usually important and though not mandatory, combining strength in this area with distance can be nothing but a positive on this long layout.

Each of the top 4 last year ranked top 20 off-the-tee, with winner, Nicolai Hojgaard the longest driver in the field. Collin Morikawa in 2021 ranked 6^th OTT and 10^th in driving distance, whilst 2020 winner, Matt Fitzpatrick ranked 10^th OTT and 16^th in driving distance.

Jon Rahm is of course a three-time winner, and he put his big-hitting to good use in 2019, ranking 3^rd OTT and 8^th in driving distance, with Tommy Fleetwood in 2^nd ranking top 10 in each area.

• SG: Putting (bermudagrass)

Finally, on a course with tough greens where we’re expecting plenty of birdies to be made, it’s no surprise to see strong putters regularly go well.

Nicolai Hojgaard ranked 6^th on the greens last year with none of the top 4 ranking outside the top 15.

Jon Rahm has putted well on each of his victories here, especially in 2022, as he ranked 2^nd. He was part of a leading trio of strong putters, with 2^nd-place finishers, Alex Noren and Tyrrell Hatton ranking 1^st and 5^th respectively.

Runners-up in 2021, Alexander Bjork and Matt Fitzpatrick ranked 1st and 3^rd, whilst Fitzpatrick led the field in this area when taking the title in 2020.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Abu Dhabi Championship (Yas Links)

Not only in relation to current form, but as a comp, it may be last week’s Abu Dhabi Championship host, Yas Links, that gives us the biggest clues for this event. Both courses feature generous but smartly bunkered fairways, with large undulating greens and possess closely-matched averages in scrambling and putting difficulty.

Notable correlating form:

Tyrrell Hatton:

DPWTC (2^nd, 2^nd) / Abu Dhabi (2^nd, 6^th, 7^th)

Matt Wallace:

DPWTC (2^nd, 2^nd) / Abu Dhabi (3^rd)

Victor Dubuisson:

DPWTC (2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th) / Abu Dhabi (4^th)

Viktor Hovland:

DPWTC (2^nd, 3^rd) / Abu Dhabi (4^th)

Alex Noren:

DPWTC (2^nd) / Abu Dhabi (5^th)

Francesco Molinari:

DPWTC (4^th, 4^th) / Abu Dhabi (5^th)

Thriston Lawrence:

DPWTC (5^th) / Abu Dhabi (6^th)

Victor Perez:

DPWTC (7^th, 8^th) / Abu Dhabi (1^st)

Jeff Winther:

DPWTC (9^th) / Abu Dhabi (6^th)

Qatar Masters (Doha Golf Club)

Staying in the Middle East and Doha Golf Club looks another good guide this week. It possesses similar averages to the Earth Course in greens-in-regulation, short game difficulty and bogeys/birdies made.

Notable correlating form:

Victor Dubuisson:

DPWTC (2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th) / Qatar (9^th, 9^th, 9^th)

Branden Grace:

DPWTC (3^rd, 6^th) / Qatar (1^st, 1^st)

Mike Lorenzo-Vera:

DPWTC (3^rd) / Qatar (2^nd, 4^th)

Bernd Wiesberger:

DPWTC (4^th) / Qatar (3^rd)

Adrian Otaegui:

DPWTC (4^th) / Qatar (5^th)

Emiliano Grillo:

DPWTC (4^th) / Qatar (5^th)

Byeong Hun An:

DPWTC (4^th) / Qatar (5^th)

Sami Valimaki:

DPWTC (5^th) / Qatar (1^st)

Jorge Campillo:

DPWTC (9^th, 9^th) / Qatar (2^nd, 2^nd)

Scottish Open (The Renaissance Club)

With its generous, rolling, strategically bunkered fairways and large, undulating greens, that rank as some of the toughest to putt on tour, the Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club is worth a look.

Notable correlating form:

Matt Fitzpatrick:

DPWTC (1^st, 1^st) / Scottish (2^nd)

Nicolai Hojgaard:

DPWTC (1^st, 4^th) / Scottish (6^th)

Tommy Fleetwood:

DPWTC (2^nd, 2^nd) / Scottish (2^nd, 4^th)

Robert MacIntyre:

DPWTC (4^th) / Scottish (1^st, 2^nd)

Bernd Wiesberger:

DPWTC (4^th) / Scottish (1^st)

Byeong Hun An:

DPWTC (4^th) / Scottish (3^rd)

Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship had as many notable form-ties as any other course I looked at this week. The three courses there are fairly generous off-the-tee overall and feature large, undulating greens which combine to make this tournament one of the most difficult putting challenges on tour.

Notable correlating form:

Matt Fitzpatrick:

DPWTC (1^st, 1^st) / Dunhill Links (1^st)

Danny Willett:

DPWTC (1^st, 4^th, 5^th) / Dunhill Links (1^st, 2^nd)

Tyrrell Hatton:

DPWTC (2^nd, 2^nd) / Dunhill Links (1^st, 1^st, 1^st)

Tommy Fleetwood:

DPWTC (2^nd, 2^nd) / Dunhill Links (2^nd, 2^nd)

Alex Noren:

DPWTC (2^nd) / Dunhill Links (2^nd, 3^rd)

Victor Dubuisson:

DPWTC (2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th) / Dunhill Links (3^rd, 5^th)

Shane Lowry:

DPWTC (2^nd, 5^th) / Dunhill Links (3^rd, 4^th)

Kiradech Aphibarnrat:

DPWTC (2^nd) / Dunhill Links (4^th)

Branden Grace:

DPWTC (3^rd, 6^th) / Dunhill Links (1^st)

Nicolas Colsaerts:

DPWTC (4^th) / Dunhill Links (2^nd)

Bernd Wiesberger:

DPWTC (4^th) / Dunhill Links (4^th, 7^th)

Tom Lewis:

DPWTC (6^th, 7^th) / Dunhill Links (3^rd, 5^th)

Victor Perez:

DPWTC (7^th, 8^th) / Dunhill Links (1^st)

2021 – 2023 Dutch/KLM Open (Bernardus Golf)

Lastly, former Dutch/KLM Open host, Bernardus Golf is a strong statistical match for the Earth Course. Its generous fairways are easy to find, which also goes for the large undulating greens, that were home to one of the most demanding short game examinations on the DPWT.

Notable correlating form:

Matt Wallace:

DPWTC (2^nd, 2^nd) / Bernardus (5^th)

Kiradech Aphibarnrat:

DPWTC (2^nd) / Bernardus (5^th)

Adrian Otaegui:

DPWTC (4^th) / Bernardus (2^nd)

Victor Perez:

DPWTC (7^th, 8^th) / Bernardus (1^st)

THE FIELD

Our final field of the 2023/24 season was open to the top 50 players on the Race to Dubai, but with Jon Rahm and Ludvig Aberg absent, the field stretches down to #52 in those rankings. Connor Syme and Francesco Laporta are the two lucky recipients of those final spots.

This event doesn’t have the strength of previous renewals, with just 10 of the world’s top 50 in attendance. Rory McIlroy tops the bunch as the world #3, with #9 Tommy Fleetwood the only other man from inside the top 10.

Due to reigning champion, Nicolai Hojgaard failing to qualify, along with other past winners such as Matt Fitzpatrick – and Jon Rahm not teeing it up – Rory is the only player in the field to have previously tasted victory at the Earth Course.

There are a large number of debutants in the field, with 15 teeing it up in the DP World Tour Championship for the first time. Chief among these is LIV’s Joaquin Niemann and it also includes eight first-time DPWT winners in 2024.

DP World Tour Championship Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main DP World Tour Championship market on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this tournament.

Market leaders (1/4 5 places): Rory McIlroy 18/5, Tyrrell Hatton 6/1, Tommy Fleetwood 8/1, Joaquin Niemann 11/1, Shane Lowry 14/1

I’ve been back and forth between each of the top 3 in the betting this week and have eventually decided to steer clear of all of them. I was especially close to Rory, his results have been excellent lately and he comes into this just shy of his price of 4/1 last year, when he was in worse form than now and was up against a field that also included some of this year’s high-class absentees, such as Jon Rahm and Viktor Hovland. However, I’d want wholesale positives to back a player at such a price and some inconsistency in approach was ultimately just enough to put me off.

I’m going to start just behind the top 5 in the betting and after looking good for large parts of last week, I’ve been tempted into giving Robert MacIntyre another shot in Dubai.

2.5 pts Robert MacIntyre each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 18/1

MacIntyre has broken new ground this year, becoming a two-time PGA Tour winner thanks to victories in the Canadian and Scottish Opens. He’s maintained a good level of form since the second of those wins and comes into this week having recorded five top 25s in his last six starts, including finishing 19^th in Abu Dhabi last week.

As he has done all season, the Scot looked solid across his bag at Yas Links. Indeed, he ranks 4^th in this field in strokes-gained total over the last six months, though it’s the putter that has impressed most, ranking 1^st on the greens over that same period.

He took to this course right away on debut in 2019, finishing 14^th and has continued to go well here since, recording a best of 4^th in 2021. His excellent form in the Scottish Open, where he’s finished 1^st and 2^nd in the last two seasons, strengthens his case.

MacIntyre has undoubtedly enjoyed the best season of his career in 2024 and proving he can take down a strong field when winning in Scotland, he looks to have a big chance of walking away with the final event of the season at the Earth Course..

1.75 pts Billy Horschel each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 28/1 

The more I looked at this week’s betting, the more Billy Horschel and his price started to appeal. He’s achieved more in his career than the majority of players in this field and having recorded his second Wentworth win just three starts ago, he represents good value against this group, which is weaker than we’re used to seeing in this event.

Horschel had enjoyed a tough campaign in 2023 but started to find some form at the end and has transferred that to an excellent 2024, during which time his performances have taken him back up to #15 in the world.

He returned to winning ways in the Corales Puntacana Championship back in April and followed that with a major top 10 three starts later, finishing 8^th in the PGA Championship. A superb effort in the Open Championship, where he finished 2^nd after entering the final round in the lead, kicked off a strong series of results, which culminated with that victory at Wentworth, as he took down this week’s Race to Dubai top 2, Rory McIlroy and Thriston Lawrence in a playoff.

The American has been in good form throughout his bag and whilst it’s no surprise to see this excellent putter firing on the greens, I’ve been more impressed with his approach play. An area in which he’s produced his best numbers since 2019 this year.

Horschel has played here once before, finishing 32^nd in 2021. He did get better as the week went on there, opening with a 74 and following with rounds of 70-69-69. Two top-15 finishes in the Dunhill Links bode well and though he’s a player who we now associate more with accuracy than power off-the-tee, his last two victories on the PGA Tour have come on lengthier layouts.

1 pt Romain Langasque each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 80/1

I’m going to complete this week’s selections with a punt on Frenchman, Romain Langasque. He hit his irons better than anyone in Abu Dhabi and currently sitting in 13^th position in that race for a PGA Tour card, he has plenty of incentive to perform well at the Earth Course.

Langasque’s year has been less consistent than the previous season but with that, he’s threatened the top of the leaderboard much more often. He’s hit the top 10 on six occasions, recording runner-up finishes in the Soudal Open and Danish Golf Championship, whilst he gave an excellent account of himself in the Scottish Open against a star-studded field, finishing 3^rd. He lost his way in approach following his 2^nd-place finish in Denmark, but he has rediscovered form with the clubs on his last two starts, which has resulted in finishes of 7^th in Andalucia and 32^nd in last week’s Abu Dhabi Championship.

He’s developed into a steady all-rounder this season, gaining strokes in each respective area. The putter has been a touch in and out, but he has also putted well on those last two starts, including last week, where a terrible third round on the greens was sandwich in between two strong rounds. He may not be afforded the chance of a poor round if wanting to get in the mix this week but producing generally solid displays on the greens here, I’m confident he can keep the mistakes at a minimum.

Langasque has played here three times and has improved with each visit, finishing 40^th in 2019, 20^th in 2022 and 11^th last year. Two 3^rd-place finishes in the Scottish Open should be a good pointer in relation to his potential to achieve a higher finish here and with much to play for, I’m taking him to find another improved result at the Earth Course.

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