CME Group Tour Championship 2024 Tips: Lydia to Ko the field in Florida

We now arrive at the final event of what has been a memorable 2024 season on the LPGA, as the top 60 players in the Race to CME Globe travel to Tiburon Golf Club’s Gold Course in Naples, Florida, for the 14^th edition of the CME Group Tour Championship.

Our resident golf tipster Jamie Worsley is on-hand with four each-way CME Group Tour Championship 2024 Tips ahead of the event.

I’m simply running out of superlatives to describe the brilliance of Nelly Korda this season. Although, despite reeling off five straight wins earlier in the year, the last of which was her second major win in the Chevron Championship, it was the manner of last week’s victory in The ANNIKA – her seventh of the season – that was perhaps the most impressive.

Heading to Pelican Golf Club – a place where Nelly has won twice before – she had been out of action for eight weeks, after having to pull out of events in East Asia due to a neck injury. There was obviously some hesitation about the shape she’d be in, and it would be natural to expect some rustiness but there was none of that, as she fired a pair of 66s over the first two days to head into the weekend in 2^nd place behind Charley Hull. She then closed to within one after a 67 in round three and looked a sure thing to be a major player in round four.

The final round didn’t start as planned, as she bogeyed two of her opening six holes and was +2 for the day after nine, now several shots off the lead. However, she showed just why she’d dominated the women’s game this year, notching up five birdies in a row on holes 11-15 just as the pressure was mounting, which guided her to an eventual and seemingly comfortable three-stroke win.

Nelly now heads to our final event of the season in search of her eighth win of 2024. She would be only the third player to record over seven wins in a single season since 1968, following in the footsteps of Annika Sorenstam – who has won eight or more on four occasions, with a best of 11 in 2002 – and Lorena Ochoa, who picked up seven trophies in 2007.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The CME Group Tour Championship replaced its predecessor, the LPGA Tour Championship in 2011.

The tournament sees the top 60 players on the Race to CME Globe standings compete for the largest prize in the women’s game, with the winner receiving a record $4million this year.

In 2019, the format of the Tour Championship and conclusion of the Race to CME Globe was changed, essentially combining them into one entity. All past results this season have no bearing on who can walk away with this final lucrative prize of the season, with each player having an equal chance to win the Tour Championship and in turn, be crowned “Race to CME Globe winner”, thus claiming that $4million prize.

There are only two players to have won this event on more than one occasion, with Lydia Ko (2022, 2014) and Jin Young Ko (2021, 2020) tied on two wins apiece.

Last five winners:

• 2023 – Winner: Amy Yang (-27); runners-up: Nasa Hataoka, Alison Lee (-24)
• 2022 – Winner: Lydia Ko (-17); runner-up: Leona Maguire (-15)
• 2021 – Winner: Jin Young Ko (-23); runner-up: Nasa Hataoka (-22)
• 2020 – Winner: Jin Young Ko (-18); runners-up: Sei Young Kim, Hannah Green (-13)
• 2019 – Winner: Sei Young Kim (-18); runner-up: Charley Hull (-17)

Last year saw Amy Yang enter the CME Group Tour Championship ranked 31^st in the season-long rankings and then walk away with the title after firing a record -27 winning score. She returns to defend this week with a more esteemed profile, as she recorded her first ever major championship victory in this year’s KPMG Women’s PGA Championship.

THE COURSE

The Gold Course at Tiburon Golf Club was designed by Greg Norman in 1998 and has been the permanent home of the CME Group Tour Championship since 2013.

It is a course that will be familiar to watchers of the PGA Tour, hosting the QBE Shootout from 2001 until 2022. That event was replaced by the Grant Thornton Invitational last year, which is too played here and uses a similar format to the QBE, pitting mixed two-player teams – made up of one from the PGA Tour and one from the LPGA – against each other across three different stroke play formats over three days. The inaugural edition of that new event was won by Lydia Ko and Jason Day, who will return to defend in a few weeks’ time.

Tiburon’s Gold Course has seen its overall yardage lengthened by close to 150 yards this year, with this par 72 now measuring a lengthy 6700 yards. It possesses 10x par 4s (350-425 yards), 4x par 5s (485-580 yards) and 4x par 3s (140-190 yards).

That extra yardage is presumably a result of this event witnessing its two highest winning scores in the last three years, as Jin Young Ko in 2022 and Amy Yang last year took the Gold Course apart in soft conditions, firing -23 and -27 respectively. That being said, this is still a tricky course if the weather doesn’t ease the difficulty of the challenge, displayed by the event having an average winning score of -18.2 across the last 10 renewals.

As with many venues in Florida, the Gold Course is fairly flat, with few changes in elevation. Most holes are framed by tall pine and cypress trees, and water is a prevailing design feature, potentially coming into play on at least 13 holes.

The rolling fairways are very wide and inviting, and though only possessing limited bunkering it is often well placed. There is no rough at the Gold Course, with fairways instead lined with coquina shell waste areas, which contain native plants/grasses that can result in an instant penalty if found.

The elevated bermudagrass greens are large and undulating, though due to a wet year they may only play at 11.5 on the stimp this week. Pin positions can be tricky on these often angled, narrow surfaces and players will need to be at their best in approach to access them.

Run-off areas offer some protection, however, it’s the steep-faced sod-wall bunkers that are the most anxiety-inducing aspect around the greens. Players run the risk of clipping the lip of these traps if too close to the face and in some instances, a chip out backwards or sideways may be required.

With so much water in-play, risk/reward is a key characteristic of Tiburon, with hazards guarding each par 5, three of the par 3s and several shorter par 4s. That being said, two such holes, the 10^th and 14^th – which were previously among the most scorable holes, as a potentially drivable par 4 and much shorter par 5 – have been shored up with that added distance this year, reducing the risk/reward aspect of the holes somewhat in the process.

That alone should make scoring that touch more difficult this year. Though with receptive conditions again likely, I would still expect players to make plenty of birdies at Tiburon Golf Club.

THE WEATHER

There are thunderstorms lurking around in this area and they could bring forward some heavy rains on Wednesday. It is forecast to be pleasant for the rest of the week, with warm, dry and bright weather predicted and with the gusty winds of the first two days – which could reach highs of 30mph – dying down for the weekend, a potential shootout awaits over the final two rounds.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach
• Greens-in-Regulation

Strong ball-strikers who can get it rolling on the green are a danger just about anywhere. That has been especially prevalent at this course and with the added length this year, I expect the long game to carry even more weight this time around.

Amy Yang was excellent with her irons last year, ranking 3^rd in greens-in-regulation and 5^th in approach. Alison Lee in 2^nd was the leading player in the field in approach; fellow runner-up, Nasa Hataoka ranked 7^th; and 4^th-place finisher Lilia Vu was 9^th in GIR and 11^th in approach.

Lydia Ko produced a solid approach display when walking away with the title in 2022, ranking 14^th. Each of the top 5 that year ranked inside the top 20 in this area, including Georgia Hall in 4^th, who ranked 1^st.

Other recent winners of the event, such as Jin Young Ko and Sei Young Kim also excel with their iron play.

• SG: Off-the-Tee
• Driving Distance

Long, high-class drivers have always gone well at the Gold Course and with the extra yardage for 2024, big-hitters should enjoy even more of an advantage into these wide fairways.

Amy Yang drove the ball well last year, ranking 14^th and runner-up, Alison Lee was even better, ranking 6^th off-the-tee and she showcased her power, ranking 8^th in driving distance. Lydia Ko also drove the ball solidly in 2022, ranking 13^th.

There is a raft of powerful driving types to have impressed down the years. Charley Hull, Sei Young Kim, Lexi Thompson, Nelly Korda and Jessica Korda have each finished inside the top 2 and very much tick this box.

• SG: Putting (bermudagrass)

Lastly, these large, strongly-contoured greens take some handling, and we know just how vital the putter can be if the scoring is indeed low once again.

Both of the last two winners have putted superbly. Amy Yang ranked 3^rd last year and Lydia Ko was 2^nd in 2022 – a year in which each of the top 3 ranked inside the top 5 with the putter.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

As a flat, tree-lined course with large bermudagrass greens and wide fairways, we’re dealing with a similar group of courses as in The ANNIKA, which is where I’ll start this week.

The ANNIKA (Pelican Golf Club)

Based in the west of Florida, Pelican Golf Club is a shorter layout, but with big bermudagrass greens, wide fairways, lots of water in-play and home to large steep-faced bunkers, which are limited in number but smartly placed, it ticks most boxes as a comp course.

Notable correlating form:

Sei Young Kim:

Tour Championship (1^st, 2^nd) / The ANNIKA (1^st, 2^nd)

Lexi Thompson:

Tour Championship (1^st, 2^nd) / The ANNIKA (2^nd, 2^nd)

Lydia Ko:

Tour Championship (1^st, 1^st) / The ANNIKA (2^nd, 4^th)

Charley Hull:

Tour Championship (1^st) / The ANNIKA (2^nd)

Amy Yang:

Tour Championship (1^st) / The ANNIKA (4^th)

Nelly Korda:

Tour Championship (2^nd, 3^rd, 5^th) / The ANNIKA (1^st, 1^st, 1^st)

Alison Lee:

Tour Championship (2^nd) / The ANNIKA (2^nd)

Hannah Green:

Tour Championship (2^nd) / The ANNIKA (4^th)

Lilia Vu:

Tour Championship (4^th) / The ANNIKA (1^st)

LPGA Drive On Championship (Bradenton Golf Club)

Bradenton Golf Club is situated on that same stretch of Florida coastline as Pelican Golf Club, just a couple of hours north of this week’s host. It’s a course that satisfies much of that same criteria: flat, wide fairways, bermudagrass greens, water-laden and smart though limited bunkering.

Notable correlating form:

Lydia Ko:

Tour Championship (1^st, 1^st) / Bradenton (2^nd)

Nelly Korda:

Tour Championship (2^nd, 3^rd, 5^th) / Bradenton (1^st)

Megan Khang:

Tour Championship (5^th) / Bradenton (3^rd)

Xiyu Lin:

Tour Championship (6^th) / Bradenton (4^th)

Nasa Hataoka:

Tour Championship (9^th) / Bradenton (2^nd, 2^nd)

HSBC Women’s World Championship (Sentosa Golf Club – Tanjong Course)

Sentosa Golf Club’s Tanjong Course features fairways that are generous for the most part and large bermudagrass greens. Water is a constant threat, and the bunkers are again strategic rather than overly abundant.

Notable correlating form:

Jin Young Ko:

Tour Championship (1^st, 1^st) / HSBC (1^st, 1^st)

Ariya Jutanugarn:

Tour Championship (1^st) / HSBC (2^nd)

Hannah Green:

Tour Championship (2^nd) / HSBC (1^st, 2^nd)

Nelly Korda:

Tour Championship (2^nd, 3^rd, 5^th) / HSBC (2^nd)

Nasa Hataoka:

Tour Championship (2^nd, 2^nd) / HSBC (3^rd)

Brooke Henderson:

Tour Championship (5^th, 7^th, 7^th) / HSBC (2^nd, 4^th)

Celine Boutier:

Tour Championship (3^rd) / HSBC (2^nd)

Jeeno Thitikul:

Tour Championship (5^th) / HSBC (4^th, 8^th)

Chevron Championship (The Club at Carlton Woods – Nicklaus Course)

The Nicklaus Course at Carlton Woods is now much closer in length to this week’s course. As a similarly tree-lined but spacious venue, with wide fairways, reasonably large bermudagrass greens and water in-play on around half of its holes, it should act as a good comp for Tiburon’s Gold Course.

Notable Correlating form:

Amy Yang:

Tour Championship (1^st) / Chevron (4^th)

Nelly Korda:

Tour Championship (2^nd, 3^rd, 5^th) / Chevron (1^st)

Lilia Vu:

Tour Championship (4^th) / Chevron (1^st)

Brooke Henderson:

Tour Championship (5^th, 7^th, 7^th) / Chevron (3^rd)

Jeeno Thitikul:

Tour Championship (5^th) / Chevron (4^th)

Ford Championship (Seville Golf & Country Club)

Seville Golf & Country Club has wide fairways and relatively large bermudagrass greens, which played at a similar speed as this week’s course is intended to play.

Notable correlating form:

Lexi Thompson:

Tour Championship (1^st, 2^nd) / Ford (3^rd)

Nelly Korda:

Tour Championship (2^nd, 3^rd, 5^th) / Ford (1^st)

Alison Lee:

Tour Championship (2^nd) / Ford (8^th)

THE FIELD

Following her seventh LPGA victory of the year, Nelly Korda arrives this week as the clear leader in the Rolex Rankings and in this year’s Race to CME Globe. Haeran Ryu qualified 2^nd for the event, and Lydia Ko 3^rd, whilst Leona Maguire, Hyo Joo Kim and Carlota Ciganda are those who can count themselves the most fortunate, finishing in 58^th, 59^th and 60^th on the season-long rankings.

Amy Yang is the reigning champion and due to that excellent KPMG Women’s PGA Championship win she returns to defend this week. The Korean is joined by a further six former winners of this tournament: Lydia Ko (2022, 2014), Jin Young Ko (2021, 2020), Sei Young Kim (2019), Lexi Thompson (2018), Ariya Jutanugarn (2017) and Charley Hull (2016).

There are nine debutants teeing it up. The best-performing of them is Lauren Coughlin, who made here LPGA breakthrough this year with two victories, helping her to a ranking of 8^th in the Race to CME Globe. It also includes fellow 2024 first-time winner, Bailey Tardy and Japan’s Mao Saigo, whose consistency took her to 9^th in those rankings this season.

CME Group Tour Championship 2024 Odds

SELECTIONS

Market leaders: Nelly Korda 9/2, Jeeno Thitikul 8/1, Ruoning Yin 12/1, Haeran Ryu 14/1, Charley Hull 14/1, Lydia Ko 16/1

I was tempted to side with Nelly this week as she attempts to add her name to an exclusive list of golfers, but I think there’s plenty of value knocking around on top-class players that means I’m happy to just watch on if she does indeed pick up title #8.

My eye is immediately drawn to the last of those market leaders, Lydia Ko, who herself has enjoyed an excellent season. Having remained in good form and tasting success at Tiburon on three occasions, she looks overpriced here and goes in as the headline selection.

3 pts Lydia Ko each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 16/1

Lydia has won four times in 2024, and we were on for two of those victories, as she completed the set by taking the gold medal in the Olympics and claimed an overdue third major title at the Old Course in the Women’s Open. She also won the Tournament of Champions at the start of the year and recorded her fourth success in the Kroger Queen City Championship four starts ago.

Her form on the LPGA has remained good since that latest win, as she finished 12^th in the BMW Ladies Championship and after a relatively slow start last week, she reeled off three rounds in the 60s to finish 14^th.

We know where the New Zealander’s strengths lie and that’s with her irons and short game, ranking 7^th in approach, 9^th around-the-greens and 28^th in putting this season. However, it’s been encouraging to see this often erratic driver get that club under control this season, with her rankings of 61^st in driving accuracy and 86^th off-the-tee far improved on previous seasons, in which she’s ranked outside the top 120 in each area.

She first won this event in 2014 and doubled her tally in 2022, recording several other top 10s in the meantime. In addition, she was the star of the show in her winning partnership alongside Jason Day in last year’s Grant Thornton Invitational.

Living in Florida, it’s no surprise that this Hall of Famer has an affinity for playing golf in this part of the U.S and she looks to have every chance of bookending her LPGA season with victories in the state this week.

2 pts Rose Zhang each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 22/1

Rose Zhang placed for us last week in The ANNIKA and with her putter seemingly improving for this return to bermudagrass, I’ve given her another try in this season-ending event.

Zhang entered last week in consistent form, making nine of her previous 10 cuts and had hit the ball well on her last two starts, but just couldn’t get anything going on the greens. She finished 5^th there – her second-best result of the year after winning the Founders Cup – though her performance contrasted greatly with those recent starts, as she led the field on the greens but was surprisingly poor with the long game.

I said surprising as ball-striking has been an asset for much of the season. She’s been especially strong with her irons, ranking 8^th in approach and 19^th in greens-in-regulation, and despite being more about accuracy with the driver, she is certainly not short. If she can combine this ball-striking prowess with the quality she showed on last week’s greens, she’ll be a real danger.

Zhang debuted in this event last year and went well, finishing 13^th, looking especially good in approach and with the putter. Her 5^th-place finish last week also bodes well and should have her ready to go even closer this week.

1.25 pts Minjee Lee each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 40/1

A year without a victory will always go down as a negative for Minjee Lee, having recorded at least one in nine of the previous 10 seasons. That being said, she’s been largely consistent and with some encouragement to be found on the greens last week, she has a chance of signing the season off with a win in Florida.

Minjee has missed just five cuts in 22 starts this year and recorded five top-10 finishes. The best of them came on the Korean LPGA five starts ago, where she finished 3^rd, though her top effort on the main tour came all the way back in March, when she was 4^th in the Blue Bay LPGA. However, she does arrive here in good form, having followed that 3^rd-place finish in Korea with an 8^th in the Buick LPGA Shanghai and she finished 14^th last week in The ANNIKA.

Unsurprisingly, she has again been among the best tee-to-green players on tour this season, ranking 2^nd. This owes especially to her approach play, for which she’s been the best player on tour, much like the previous two seasons. The driver is a weapon if she can keep it straight, which she has been managing to do lately and whilst the putter has remained a glaring weakness, she did produce her fourth-best performance of the season on the greens last week.

Minjee finished 7^th here on her debut in 2014 and has recorded two further top 10s in the last three years, finishing 5^th in 2021 and 8^th last year. Two runner-up finishes in the HSBC Women’s World Championship is an additional indicator of her ability to perform on similar setups, and if able to keep the putter firing she should find herself among the main contenders at Tiburon.

0.75 pts Bailey Tardy each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 175/1

Former #5 amateur, Bailey Tardy looks to have finally found her feet at this level in the past two years. Having rediscovered some positive form in recent starts, she can make some noise near the top of the leaderboard at a huge price.

Since turning pro in 2019, it hasn’t been plain sailing for the former Georgia All-American. She initially struggled on the Epson Tour – the LPGA’s development tour – and after looking to have gotten more comfortable at that lower level in 2020, and then recording her first pro victory in 2021, she succumbed to another disappointing season in 2022.  That left her heading to Q-School to secure a step-up to the LPGA that looked an almost certainty due to her amateur pedigree, but She showed her class there, finishing 2^nd to Haeran Ryu and at last earned herself a first season on the LPGA.

Tardy struggled for form last year, though one major bright spot occurred in the US Women’s Open at Pebble Beach, where she finished 4^th, underlining her potential at this level. She then confirmed this on her third start this year, making her LPGA breakthrough with an emphatic four-stroke victory over Sarah Schmelzel in the Blue Bay LPGA.

As can so often happen, that first win was followed by a disappointing period of results, as she missed 12 of her next 15 cuts but she’s been trending back in the right direction in recent starts. She looked good in East Asia, recording consecutive finishes of 36^th in the Buick LPGA Shanghai, 27^th in the BMW Ladies Championship and 4^th in the Maybank Championship, and upon her return to the U.S last week she finished 8^th in The ANNIKA, firing four rounds in the 60s.

Tardy hit the ball excellently last year and whilst she’s regressed in approach, her driving has improved, with this big-hitter ranking 12^th off-the-tee in 2024. That being said, she has stepped up her approach play in recent weeks and found plenty of greens in The ANNIKA, ranking 7^th in GIR. However, it’s her putter that has taken the most marked step forward, with four of her five best putting displays of the season all coming in those last four starts, ranking top 12 in each. With the power-packed ball-striking now accompanied by some high-class putting, this long-time star amateur can finish the season in style by taking home this mammoth final prize.

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