RBC Canadian Open 2024 Tips: Theegala the top choice of four for Jamie

The PGA Tour heads north of the border this week to the Hamilton Golf & Country Club. As always, our golf tipster Jamie Worsley has put together his in-depth preview for the event.

You can check out all of his Canadian Open 2024 Betting Tips and everything else you may need to know before betting on the event in his column below...

Our third major of the year, the US Open at Pinehurst, is just three weeks away, but before the players tackle that and indeed next week’s Memorial Tournament, we first head to Canada for the 115^th edition of the Canadian Open, at Hamilton Golf & Country Club.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

First staged in 1904 at Royal Montreal Golf Club, the prestigious Canadian Open is one of the oldest golf tournaments in the world, and the longest-running regular (non-major) event on the PGA Tour calendar.

The event has been host to victories for some of the game’s biggest stars. Arnold Palmer won his first PGA Tour title in Canada in 1955 and we’ve also witnessed wins for Walter Hagen (1931), Byron Nelson (1945) and Tiger Woods (2000). Though it was one event that eluded the great Jack Nicklaus, who finished his career as a seven-time runner-up of the Canadian Open.

Two-time PGA Championship winner, Leo Diegel won four Canadian Opens in six years from 1924-1929 and his record still stands today. Tommy Armour (1927, 1930, 1934), Sam Snead (1938, 1940, 1941) and Lee Trevino (1971, 1977, 1979) make up the list of three-time winners, and of the numerous players to win this on two occasions, we have the names of Tom Weiskopf (1973, 1975), Greg Norman (1984, 1992) and Rory McIlroy (2019, 2022).

Last five winners:

• 2023 – Winner: Nick Taylor (-17, playoff); runner-up: Tommy Fleetwood (-17)
• 2022 – Winner: Rory McIlroy (-19); runner-up: Tony Finau (-17)
• 2019 – Winner: Rory McIlroy (-22); runners-up: Shane Lowry, Webb Simpson (-15)
• 2018 – Winner: Dustin Johnson (-23); runners-up: Byeong Hun An, Whee Kim (-20)
• 2017 – Winner: Jhonattan Vegas (-21, playoff); runner-up: Charley Hoffman (-21)

*2020 & 2021 editions cancelled due to COVID

Last year’s Canadian Open had one of the most memorable finishes of the season, as Nick Taylor ended Canada’s 69-year wait for a home winner. He did so after holing a monster 72-foot putt on the fourth hole of a playoff against Tommy Fleetwood, and who can forget compatriot and friend, Adam Hadwin being rugby tackled to the ground in the mayhem of the ensuing celebrations.

Taylor is back to defend this week and will become the first Canadian in over 100 years to win his home title twice if he were to successfully do so.

THE COURSE

The Canadian Open is a nomadic event, regularly changing host every year and returns to Harry Colt’s 1916 design, Hamilton Golf & Country Club for the seventh time this week, having previously hosted the tournament in 1919, 1930, 2003, 2006, 2012 and 2019. However, returning players will find much has changed since they were last here.

Recent renovation

After Rory McIlroy lifted the trophy at Hamilton G&CC in 2019, golf course renovator, Martin Ebert led an extensive renovation of Hamilton – using some of Colt’s original ideas - that took two years to complete.

Hamilton is now much more open, with trees removed throughout to create more appealing playing corridors, whilst some fairways have been widened.

Though the overall number of bunkers at the course has dropped by 16 since 2019, some have been added in strategic positions, such as two on the right-hand side of the 17^th fairway. All of the remaining ones have been rebuilt and not only are they now deeper and more penal, but with fescue “eyebrows” and ragged edges – in-keeping with the type of bunkers Colt would’ve originally wanted at the course – they are more striking and really stand out on many holes.

Perhaps the biggest changes have come on and around the putting surfaces. They have all been rebuilt and resurfaced with creeping bentgrass, as opposed to the poa/bent mix of previous years. They now average 1000 sq. ft. larger (6000 instead of 5000) and feature more attractive, interesting contours, with the same being said for their surrounds.

Gone is the thick Kentucky bluegrass that surrounded many of the putting surfaces previously. It has been replaced by short grass around most and with further run-offs on the green perimeters, players will often end up in these tightly-mown areas if not at their most precise in approach.

The renovated course is very easy on the eye and said to be more fun yet strategic, and I’m looking forward to seeing how it holds up this week.

Course details

One further change to Hamilton G&CC is the lengthening of the course. This par 70 will now play to 7084 yards – 184 yards up on the 6900 it measured in 2019 – and it possesses 12x par 4s (346-502 yards), 4x par 3s (180-249 yards) and 2x par 5s (542-580 yards).

Though many things have changed here, there is no altering the naturally undulating and hilly landscape at Hamilton.

Elevation changes are frequent throughout the course, often requiring a downhill tee-shot and then moving back uphill with the approach into the often elevated greens, which puts pressure on players to select the correct club.

The average-width fairways are heavily sloped in places, and players will need to drive the ball smartly to stop the ball meandering into the potentially gnarly poa/Kentucky bluegrass/tall fescue mix rough.

Ancaster Creek provides one final and prominent topographical characteristic, snaking through the property and is a feature on around nine holes.

When we last saw this fine old course, Rory McIlroy took it apart, firing -22 and beating the field by seven strokes. It was in need of updating to hold up to the power-packed modern game and it should be fun finding out how the changes have impacted the playability for the pros this week.

THE WEATHER

How this revitalised Hamilton G&CC plays will depend on the conditions and it looks like we’re set for some wet weather in the buildup to this week’s event.

Storms are forecast to bring with them heavy downpours on Monday/Tuesday, before disappearing and being replaced by cool, dry conditions on Wednesday.

Temperatures will rise slightly for the start of play on Thursday and it looks relatively pleasant for the rest of the week. Though there is forecast to be some gusts at up to 30mph, the wind doesn’t look too troublesome and if those heavy downpours make for a receptive course, scoring could be low.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach
• Greens-in-Regulation
• SG: Off-the-Tee and/or Driving Accuracy
• SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
• Par 4 Scoring

Even without the recent renovation, we’d still be a little in the dark as to what to expect of Hamilton G&CC this week, with just one edition of the Canadian Open staged here since 2012.

When Rory McIlroy blew the opposition away in 2019, he excelled himself right across his game. Outside of the runaway winner, it was striking how many of the other contenders relied on a strong week on the greens, with six of the top 7 ranking inside the top-5 in putting, though that isn’t much help this week on completely new surfaces.

I feel it best to keep it simple in these circumstances and will lean on the better ball-strikers in the field, especially those who excel in approach; into the potentially receptive surfaces that may be on display this week.

Whilst the fairways aren’t overly narrow, they’re well protected by strategic bunkering and thick rough, and with the aforementioned slopes, players will need to drive the ball intelligently.

Proven bentgrass putters will have an obvious advantage; as should the best par 4 scorers in the field, with 12 such holes spread across the course.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Due to the changes at Hamilton G&CC since we were last here, I’m not going to get bogged down in comp form this week. Instead, I’m going to look at it as a fresh course and look out for courses that share similar characteristics.

Aptly, the two that struck me most are the last two hosts of the Canadian Open, Oakdale Golf & Country Club (2023) and St Georges Golf & Country Club (2022). Both of these courses are classic, traditional, tree-lined designs built on highly undulating terrain; featuring elevation changes throughout and possessing bentgrass greens.

Two others to consider are TPC Deere Run, host of the John Deere Classic and the host of the Travelers Championship, TPC River Highlands. Again, each of these courses are similar in length, with regular changes in elevation and have bentgrass as the grass of choice on the putting surfaces.

Finally, I wondered if Muirfield Village and the Memorial Tournament could be worth a look. Whilst much longer, it has some moderate elevation changes, bentgrass greens and difficult around-the-greens challenges.

THE FIELD

Two-time Canadian Open winner, Rory McIlroy, heads the field this week as the world #3. He is the only player from inside the top-10 in attendance and one of 12 from inside the top-50.

Included in that is defending champion, Nick Taylor, who along with Rory is one of five former winners stated to be teeing it up. Joined by Jhonattan Vegas (2017, 2016), Brandt Snedeker (2013) and Chez Reavie (2008).

The home contingent is 25 strong. It includes 2003 Masters champion, Mike Weir, DPWT regular Aaron Cockerill and Taylor Pendrith, who recorded his first ever PGA Tour win just three starts ago in the CJ CUP Byron Nelson.

SELECTIONS

*You can check out all the latest RBC Canadian Open 2024 Odds and bet on the event on betfred.com behind the link.

Market leaders: Rory McIlroy 18/5, Tommy Fleetwood 18/1, Sahith Theegala 22/1, Cameron Young 25/1, Corey Conners 25/1, Shane Lowry 25/1

Rory McIlroy aims to join an exclusive list of just four players to record three-or-more Canadian Open victories this week, and is a short price to do so at the top of the betting.

He may be a tough nut to track in a country he’s enjoyed great success but appeals little at the price, and I’m instead going to begin this week’s selection by taking a chance on Sahith Theegala to become a two-time PGA Tour winner at Hamilton G&CC.

Sahith Theegala

We last saw Sahith looking a real contender in the PGA Championship two weeks ago. Following rounds of 65, 67, 67 he entered the final round with every chance, just one back of overnight leaders, Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa. Though struggling in that position in the final round, firing a 2-over 73 to slip to 12^th position, I’m more than happy to forgive considering it was his first real shot at a major title.

This type of major performance had been coming. He recorded his first PGA Tour victory in the Fortinet Championship at the end of last year and has been consistently strong throughout 2024, missing just two cuts and recording five top-10 finishes, which includes finishing 2^nd in The Sentry and RBC Heritage.

Theegala has a fantastic all-round game, ranking 5^th on tour in total strokes-gained this season. The putter has been his biggest asset, ranking 4^th and he is regularly good on bentgrass. Though he’s also been hitting the ball excellently, ranking 23^rd off-the-tee and 24^th in approach.

As a runner-up in the Travelers Championship and previously finishing 5^th in the Memorial Tournament, he has some really positive comp form to his name for the test and looks the play from the very top of the market this week.

Sam Burns

Though missing the cut on his last start in the PGA Championship, Sam Burn produced some of his best iron play of the season and if able to bounce back from an unusually poor putting display there, he’d look a big contender in a tournament in which he finished 4^th in 2022.

Burns started the year on fire, recording four top-10s across his first five starts and looked every bit a player ready to have a big season on the PGA Tour.

He struggled in his next dozen or so starts following that run, before showing more promising signs again in the Wells Fargo Championship two starts ago, finishing 13^th.

We last saw him recording that missed cut at Valhalla, however there were far more positives than the bare result suggests. He was among the most consistent approach players over the first two rounds there, gaining over 1.5 strokes per round, but undid all of that good work with a dreadful couple of days on the greens, producing one of the worst putting displays of his career.

As someone who is usually so reliable with this club, I would expect a much improved showing this week, and combined with the consistent quality of his ball-striking this year, he certainly fits the bill for Hamilton.

Burns was a superb 4^th on his Canadian Open debut in 2022 at St Georges Golf & CC and as a five-time PGA Tour winner, he looks an attractive price against this field this week.

Mackenzie Hughes

After going years without a Canadian winner, I’m wonder if Nick Taylor’s triumph last year may just open the door for more home winners. Whilst he looks a big price this week considering his win in the Phoenix Open earlier in the year, he has struggled for form over the last couple of months and I believe the value in the Canadian’s sits with Mackenzie Hughes instead.

Hughes produced some solid golf in the opening months of the season but he has stepped that form up a notch since the end of March. These upgraded performances began with a 3^rd-place finish in the Valspar Championship six starts ago, where he had every chance to win during the final round. He remained solid after that, making his next four cuts and prior to recording just his second missed cut of the year on his latest start in the PGA Championship, he finished 6^th at Quail Hollow.

In many ways, it has been a typical year for the Canadian from a statistical point of view. His electric short game is again coming to the fore, ranking inside the top-20 both in putting and around-the-greens; whilst his long game has been predictably inconsistent. Having said that, he hit the ball well enough at the Wells Fargo and of his four best ball-striking performances this season, three have come over the last two months.

Hughes was born in Hamilton and recorded his second-best Canadian Open result at this venue in 2019, finishing 14^th pre-renovation. A 3^rd-place finish in the Travelers Championship and 6^th in the Memorial Tournament offer encouragement that he appreciates the nuances of this setup, and I don’t think he’ll be far away this week.

Charley Hoffman

47-year-old, Charley Hoffman has suggested that he may have one last PGA Tour win in him a couple of times already this year and looking in good shape with his ball-striking in Texas last week, he can enjoy another positive showing in Canada.

Hoffman had looked a little lost at this level in the last couple of years but has come out fighting in 2024. He was a superb 2^nd to Nick Taylor in a surprise playoff for the Phoenix Open in February and recorded his second top-5 of the year four starts ago, finishing 4^th in the Corales Puntacana Championship.

Though narrowly missing the cut in the PGA Championship, he performed with plenty of credit and responded to that by taking the first-round lead in last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge, before eventually finishing 50^th. He looked rock-solid with his tee-to-green game at Colonial, ranking 21^st, but it was a poor week on the greens – ranking 64^th of the 71 players to make the cut – that meant he was unable to maintain his position near the top.

He was the second-best ball-striker in the field during the final round last week. This is indicative of where his strengths have shined most this season.

Hoffman went close to winning this event in 2017, losing out to Jhonny Vegas in a playoff; recording two further Canadian Open top-10s when 4^th in 2010 and 7^th in 2015. His strong record at TPC River Highlands, where he’s finished 2^nd and 3^rd, gives his chances another boost this week.

You can find all Jamie's latest Golf Betting Tips over on our dedicated golf Insights hub.