BMW PGA Championship 2024 Tips: Six players to back each-way at Wentworth
One of the biggest events on the DP World Tour takes place this week with the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.
As always our golf tipster Jamie Worsley has put together a comprehensive preview of the event and has picked out six players to back in his BMW PGA Championship 2024 Betting Tips...
BMW PGA Championship 2024 Betting Tips
A brilliant week at Royal County Down was concluded with a memorable finish to the Irish Open last week, as Rasmus Hojgaard birdied four of his final five holes to overhaul a faltering Rory McIlroy by one shot.
It’s a victory that takes the Dane to five DP World Tour wins in total – two ahead of twin brother, Nicolai in the battle to find the best Hojgaard - and consigned Rory McIlroy to another heartbreaking defeat; this time in front of home fans in his native Northern Ireland, that will leave him wanting to see the back of 2024.
That being said, he will get the chance of some redemption this week, as he – along with his conqueror, Hojgaard – head to Surrey for the tour’s flagship event, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.
You can checkout Betfred's Market for the event just by clicking here on the BMW PGA Championship Odds link.
TOURNAMENT HISTORY
The BMW PGA Championship was part of the inaugural DP World Tour season in 1972 and has been a mainstay on the tour since, with every edition since 1984 taking place here at Wentworth.
Many famous players have lifted this trophy, including Arnold Palmer (1975) and Rory McIlroy (2014). However, nobody has won it more times than Sir Nick Faldo, who recorded four victories in 1978, 1980, 1981 and 1989.
Bernhard Langer (1987, 1993, 1995) and Colin Montgomerie (1998, 1999, 2000) have each had three wins. Whilst there have been a further five two-time winners in the DP/European Tour era: Tony Jacklin (1972, 1982), Seve Ballesteros (1983, 1991), Ian Woosnam (1988, 1997), Anders Hansen (2002, 2007) and Luke Donald (2011, 2012).
Last five winners:
- 2023 – Winner: Ryan Fox (-18); runners-up: Tyrrell Hatton, Aaron Rai (-17)
- 2022 – Winner: Shane Lowry (-17); runners-up: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm (-16)
- 2021 – Winner: Billy Horschel (-19); runners-up: Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Laurie Canter, Jamie Donaldson (-18)
- 2020 – Winner: Tyrrell Hatton (-19); runner-up: Victor Perez (-15)
- 2019 – Winner: Danny Willett (-20); runner-up: Jon Rahm (-17)
* 2022 edition shortened to 54 holes
Ryan Fox fired six birdies in a superb 31 on the back nine last year, to beat the English duo of Tyrrell Hatton and Aaron Rai by one shot. The New Zealander returns to defend this week, aiming to become the first back-to-back winner since Luke Donald in 2011/12.
THE COURSE
Wentworth’s West Course was designed by the prolific Harry Colt in 1926 – designer of many of the most famous courses in the British Isles. However, it has been renovated by Ernie Els several times in the previous two decades, most recently in 2016.
This parkland/heathland course plays as a par 72 and measures 7267 yards. There are 10x par 4s (383-491 yards), 4x par 5s (520-610 yards) and 4x par 3s (154-203 yards).
It was traditionally a stern test and though it can still play difficult if the weather allows, it has succumbed to some lower scoring in recent years. Possessing an average winning score of -18.33 across the last six renewals.
Densely tree-lined throughout, Wentworth’s West Course features pristine bentgrass fairways and greens, with subtle elevation changes at several points.
The sloping fairways are average in width overall and present players with a varied driving challenge. The majority of them dogleg – which requires players to position the ball intelligently off the tee - and they find their landing areas bombarded with smartly placed bunkers, whilst thick fescue rough is waiting to punish those most wayward players.
The elevated greens are small and quick, with some fairly severe contours and slopes testing the mettle of the most confident putters. Deep greenside bunkering punishes those not on point with their approach play, as do tightly-mown run-offs and false-fronts. This all contributes to Wentworth possessing one of the most demanding all-round short-game challenges on tour, ranking inside the top-15 in both scrambling and putting difficulty.
Scoring chances are plentiful around here but they all come with caveats. The collection of par 3s doesn’t look too intimidating in terms of length, but they do possess some of the smallest greens on the course. Meanwhile the par 4s balance themselves well, with the more apparent birdie chances requiring players to drive into some of the narrower fairways on the course.
The par 5s too offer up excellent opportunities, with two coming in at under 525 yards but they’re often strewn with danger. This is no more evident than on the 523-yard 18th; a left-to-right doglegging hole that prompts players to hit a drive into a wide but sloping fairway, and then decide on whether to go for the angled, sloping green in two, which is closely guarded by a creek short and left.
Combined with the 610-yard par 5 17th, these two closing holes make for an exciting finish and mean we can see some sizeable swings late on in the event.
THE WEATHER
Conditions are forecast to be enjoyably warm and dry prior to the start of the event and over the first two rounds, though that is scheduled to make way for some weekend rain.
There are also predicted to be strong, gusty winds over the first two days, reaching highs of 30mph. However, this does die down a touch over the weekend as those clouds and rain arrive.
KEY STATS
- SG: Approach
- Greens-in-Regulation
Wentworth serves up a strong tee-to-green test, but it’s iron play into these small greens that is the most important area.
Ryan Fox shone in approach when winning last year, ranking 6th; Tyrrell Hatton in 2nd ranked 2nd in approach and 10th in greens-in-regulation.
Shane Lowry led the field in GIR in 2022 and was 9th in approach. Jon Rahm in 2nd was 2nd in GIR and 4th-place finisher, Talor Gooch was 2nd in approach and 4th in GIR.
2021 champion, Billy Horschel led the field in both approach and GIR. Runners-up, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Laurie Canter and Jamie Donaldson each ranked top-12 in approach, whilst Canter and Aphibarnrat were top-5 in GIR.
Though Tyrrell Hatton excelled in other areas on the way to his 2020 success, runner-up Victor Perez ranked 3rd in approach and 6th in GIR. Meanwhile, 3rd-place finisher, Andy Sullivan was 2nd in GIR and 6th in approach.
Going back to 2019 we find Danny Willett ranking T1 in GIR and 8th in approach on his way to victory; Christiaan Bezuidenhout in 3rd put up almost identical stats, ranking T1 in GIR and 9th in approach.
- SG: Off-the-Tee
- Driving Accuracy
The driver is always a key asset among winners and it’s a course that while the big hitters can go well, they almost always need to demonstrate an ability to control that power.
Ryan Fox wasn’t necessarily accurate when winning last year, though was a solid 26th off-the-tee. Aaron Rai in 2nd ranked 3rd OTT and 7th in driving accuracy, whilst Jon Rahm in 4th ranked 4th OTT and 13th in driving accuracy.
Shane Lowry was 16th OTT in 2022, displaying both a decent level of power and accuracy. He was closely followed by Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy in 2nd, who ranked 1st and 5th OTT respectively.
Billy Horschel’s accurate driving caused him to lead the field OTT in 2021. Jamie Donaldson and Laurie Canter in 2nd both drove it well and reasonably straight, ranking top-20 in both areas.
Tyrrell Hatton was 6th OTT and 5th in driving accuracy in 2020 – a year in which three of the top-4 ranked top-10 in driving accuracy.
Danny Willett was top-20 in both areas in 2019, beating Jon Rahm into 2nd, who ranked 1st OTT and 3rd in driving accuracy.
- SG: Around-the-Greens
- Scrambling
As mentioned, the scrambling challenge here is tough and with those more blustery and likely firmer conditions over the first two days, players will need to show some sharp short-game skills.
The last four leaderboards at Wentworth have been littered with quality scrambling displays, with each of the winners in those years ranking top-5 in scrambling.
- Par 4 Scoring
Finally, it’s the par 4s that have comfortably proven to be the most important holes at Wentworth, with all of the last five winners ranking 2nd or better in par 4 scoring.
CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)
Omega European Masters (Crans-sur-Sierre)
Crans-sur-Sierre has historically been a good comp for Wentworth. These two tree-lined courses have a similar tee-to-green challenge in terms of difficulty; small bentgrass greens and possess matching birdie/bogey averages.
Notable correlating form:
Alex Noren:
BMW PGA (1st) / European Masters (1st, 1st)
Danny Willett:
BMW PGA (1st) / European Masters (1st)
Tyrrell Hatton:
BMW PGA (1st) / European Masters (3rd, 3rd, 3rd)
Matteo Manassero:
BMW PGA (1st) / European Masters (3rd)
Jamie Donaldson:
BMW PGA (2nd) / European Masters (3rd)
Thongchai Jaidee:
BMW PGA (2nd) / European Masters (9th, 9th)
Lucas Bjerregaard:
BMW PGA (3rd) / European Masters (2nd)
Hideto Tanihara:
BMW PGA (3rd) / European Masters (6th)
Andrew Johnston:
BMW PGA (6th, 7th, 9th) / European Masters (3rd, 3rd)
Richie Ramsay:
BMW PGA (6th, 9th) / European Masters (1st)
Nedbank Challenge/2020 South African Open (Gary Player Country Club)
Gary Player Country Club ranks similarly to Wentworth in driving and scrambling challenges and has developed some notably strong form-ties as a result.
Notable correlating form:
Alex Noren:
BMW PGA (1st) / Nedbank (1st)
Danny Willett:
BMW PGA (1st) / Nedbank (1st)
Ryan Fox:
BMW PGA (1st) / Nedbank (2nd)
Chris Wood:
BMW PGA (1st) / Nedbank (3rd)
Jamie Donaldson:
BMW PGA (2nd) / Nedbank/SA Open (2nd, 2nd)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat:
BMW PGA (2nd, 5th) / Nedbank (5th)
Thongchai Jaidee:
BMW PGA (2nd) / Nedbank (7th, 9th)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout:
BMW PGA (3rd, 5th) / Nedbank/SA Open (1st, 5th)
Andy Sullivan:
BMW PGA (3rd) / Nedbank (3rd)
Branden Grace:
BMW PGA (5th, 5th) / Nedbank (1st, 3rd, 4th)
Richie Ramsay:
BMW PGA (6th, 9th) / Nedbank (4th)
Shubhankar Sharma:
BMW PGA (9th) / Nedbank (3rd)
Andalucia Masters (Valderrama)
Former Andalucia Masters host, Valderrama is a strategic, tree-lined test with elevation changes throughout. With similar averages in driving accuracy and possessing a demanding short-game challenge, it can act as a helpful guide this week.
Notable correlating form:
Shane Lowry:
BMW PGA (1st, 2nd) / Valderrama (2nd, 4th)
Ryan Fox:
BMW PGA (1st) / Valderrama (4th)
Jamie Donaldson:
BMW PGA (2nd) / Valderrama (4th)
Laurie Canter:
BMW PGA (2nd) / Valderrama (4th)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout:
BMW PGA (3rd, 5th) / Valderrama (1st)
Andrew Johnston:
BMW PGA (6th, 7th, 9th) / Valderrama (1st)
Richie Ramsay:
BMW PGA (6th, 9th) / Valderrama (3rd)
Hideto Tanihara:
BMW PGA (3rd) / Valderrama (8th)
BMW International Open (Golfclub Munchen Eichenried)
Golfclub Munchen Eichenried is another scoreable tree-lined course with a comparable ball-striking test to Wentworth.
Notable correlating form:
Ryan Fox:
BMW PGA (1st) / BMW International (3rd)
Alex Noren:
BMW PGA (1st) / BMW International (4th)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat:
BMW PGA (2nd, 5th) / BMW International (4th)
Rikard Karlberg:
BMW PGA (2nd) / BMW International (5th)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout:
BMW PGA (3rd, 5th) / BMW International (3rd)
Andy Sullivan:
BMW PGA (3rd) / BMW International (5th)
Rafa Cabrera-Bello:
BMW PGA (6th, 8th, 9th) / BMW International (3rd, 3rd)
2016 & 2023 Irish Open (The K Club)
The K Club proved a strong comp last year. It ranks closely to Wentworth in many areas, from driving accuracy percentages to scrambling difficulty, and with a couple of par 5s coming up at the close, it’s a course that can too see major swings late on.
Notable correlating form:
Rory McIlroy:
BMW PGA (1st) / K Club (1st)
Ryan Fox:
BMW PGA (1st) / K Club (3rd)
Shane Lowry:
BMW PGA (1st, 2nd) / K Club (3rd)
Tyrrell Hatton:
BMW PGA (1st) / K Club (5th)
Eddie Pepperell:
BMW PGA (6th, 6th) / K Club (8th)
Shubhankar Sharma:
BMW PGA (9th) / K Club (7th)
THE FIELD
Rory McIlroy is back in action after last week’s disappointments and is the top-ranked player in the field at #3. He is joined by a further 14 of the world’s top-50, including Tommy Fleetwood (#12), Matt Fitzpatrick (#28), Justin Rose (#36) and Wentworth debutant, Si Woo Kim (#50).
Last year’s winner, Ryan Fox returns to defend and along with Rory, he is part of a 10-strong group of former winners, alongside Shane Lowry (2022), Billy Horschel (2021), Danny Willett (2019), Francesco Molinari (2018), Alex Noren (2017), Byeong Hun An (2015), Matteo Manassero (2013) and Luke Donald (2011, 2012).
Austrian, Sepp Straka is back for another go after finishing 10th on debut last year, while the PGA Tour’s Mark Hubbard and Peter Malnati take advantage of a special FedExCup-related category to make their debuts in the BMW PGA Championship.
SELECTIONS
Market leaders: Rory McIlroy 11/2, Tommy Fleetwood 9/1, Adam Scott 11/1, Shane Lowry 18/1, Billy Horschel 20/1, Aaron Rai 22/1, Robert MacIntyre 22/1
With many of those near the top of the betting coming into this after a testing week in Northern Ireland, I just wonder whether players arriving a little fresher may have a small advantage.
Tommy Fleetwood of course ticks this box but has an underwhelming record at Wentworth, while Adam Scott looks short enough in the betting and Billy Horschel has some small but lingering injury concerns.
There is a former winner up near the top of the betting who has had a four-week breather following a high-quality year on the PGA Tour, in the shape of Alex Noren. He’s gone well when fresh a few times this year and I’m hoping he can do so again this week.
Alex Noren
Noren comes into this week off the back of his best, most consistent year on the PGA Tour. He missed just three cuts across 21 starts and hit the top-25 on 13 occasions. His best effort came when 3rd in the CJ CUP Byron Nelson and he recorded further top-10s in the Cognizant Classic, Scottish Open and when we last saw him in the BMW Championship.
The Swede has shown quality right throughout the bag and ranks 12th on tour in strokes-gained total for the year. The short game has been a particular stand out, ranking 4th in scrambling and 9th around-the-greens, though he’s also shone in approach, ranking top-40 in approach and GIR. As the third-best par 4 scorer, we see why he’s such a good fit for Wentworth.
Noren made his debut here in 2010 and has played the course 11 times in total, though hasn’t teed it up since 2021. He won in 2017 and finished 3rd in 2018, which was his third top-10 after an 8th-place finish in 2015. As a former winner of the European Masters and Nedbank Challenge, his comp form is striking and convinces me that he can record his first win since 2018 this week.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Sepp Straka
Sepp Straka impressed on his Wentworth debut in 2023, finishing 10th. As one of the top ball-strikers in this field, I'm taking him to pick up a first win on European soil this week.
Though currently a winless one, 2024 has been another good year for Straka. He made it to the Tour Championship on the PGA Tour for the third year on the spin, thanks to some strong form in the middle part of the season. There, he recorded three 5th-place finishes across five starts, in the RBC Heritage, Memorial Tournament and Charles Schwab Challenge, whilst he also finished 16th in The Masters.
Although not quite as strong of late, he did finish 22nd in The Open five starts ago and was 13th in the BMW Championship.
Ball-striking is the Austrian's forte. He ranks 13th in approach over his last 50 rounds and has been the fourth-straightest driver on the PGA Tour this year. He lacks a little around the greens but as someone who hammers fairways and greens, he shouldn't be obstructed by this too much.
Straka hit it well and took to these greens on his first try last year, leading him to a 10th-place finish. Whilst missing comp form on the DPWT, his victory in last year's John Deere Classic could well act as a good guide, as an undulating, tree-lined course with relatively small bentgrass greens.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Thriston Lawrence
Thriston Lawrence has been in excellent form over the last few months and despite missing the cut on his two previous starts here, he has some notable comp form that suggests it's only a matter of time before he cracks the code at Wentworth.
Lawrence found form with a 2nd-place finish in the European Open at the start of June and has continued to threaten since. That superb 4th in The Open six starts ago certainly stands out and he's looked good after returning from a month-long break, winning at home in South Africa before finishing runner-up at The Belfry in the British Masters, and he has been top-30 in each of the last two weeks.
The South African makes birdies for fun, ranking 3rd in birdie average this season and he was in fine scoring form last week, making more birdies than anyone at Royal County Down. Ranking 19th off-the-tee, 23rd in scrambling and top-50 in approach, in which he's recently upped his form, he is a strong statistical match for Wentworth.
That wouldn't necessarily be evident when looking at Lawrence's results here, missing the cut in the previous two years. Though as a former winner of the European Masters and BMW International Open, as well as possessing finishes of 3rd at the K Club and 6th at Valderrama, his comp form is superb and I'm certain he's capable of turning around his fortunes in the BMW PGA Championship this week.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Matthieu Pavon
Matthieu Pavon arrives back in Europe after enjoying a brilliant first year on the PGA Tour. He's gone well here before and with the long game looking better of late, he looks a big price to contend.
Pavon achieved immediate success at the start of his rookie PGA Tour season, showing incredible nerve to take home the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines on his third start of the season. He showed this to be no flash in the pan, finishing 3rd at Pebble Beach on his very next start and he has performed with immense credit in two of the year's four majors, finishing 5th at Pinehurst in the US Open and 12th at Augusta on his Masters debut.
Those results earned him a first trip to East Lake in the Tour Championship, where he finished a respectable 15th on the "without starting strokes" leaderboard and looked in good form with his irons, ranking 3rd in GIR and 11th in approach. Along with being a consistently solid driver, he has the ball-striking prowess to play well here.
Pavon has played in each of the last seven renewals of the BMW PGA, recording a best of 9th in 2022. Several top-10s in the BMW International bode well and with his new-found level of confidence that being a PGA Tour winner brings, fancy his odds of taking down one of the biggest prizes on the DPWT this week.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Sami Valimaki
Sami Valimaki narrowly missed out on a place for us last week at Royal County Down, where he was in formidable birdie-making form. With some eye-catching course and correlating course form on offer, he looks well worth another go at this inflated price.
Valimaki finished 12th on his return to DPWT action at the Czech Masters five weeks ago but followed that with a disappointing missed cut at The Belfry on his next start. However, he was in much better form last week, finishing 9th and ranking 2nd in birdie average.
He has hit the ball reasonably well in his debut season on the PGA Tour, gaining strokes both in approach and off-the-tee, where as mentioned last week, he has gained some accuracy but lost little in the way of power with the driver.
I often associate Valimaki with exposed, linksy courses, which almost worked out last week. That being said, he has plenty of form on these types of course too. Indeed, he finished 13th on his Wentworth debut in 2020, whilst he's also recorded finishes of 4th in the BMW International and 10th at Valderrama. These experiences are enough for me to chance this classy, young, two-time tour winner again this week.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Rikuya Hoshino
I'm going to finish with Rikuya Hoshino. He was very encouraging here on debut last year and developing some attractive comp form for the event in just a couple of years, it's clearly a test that suits his game.
Hoshino broke through right at the start of his second season on tour back in February in the Qatar Masters. He initially struggled for form following that, but his game has reappeared over the last three months.
He's recorded three top-10s across his last seven starts, finishing 10th in the KLM Open, 6th in the BMW International and 8th at Crans two weeks ago, before a 30th-place finish in last week's Irish Open.
It was his approach play and short game that stood out there and these have been his key assets throughout this season, ranking 11th in approach and 21st around-the-greens. Both areas that often prove key at Wentworth.
Hoshino brought this skillset when finishing 25th on his 2023 debut, firing a 67 in round one to sit 4th after his first ever round at the course. Although he's only played full-time on the DPWT for less than two years, he's amassed plenty of comp form, finishing 3rd and 6th at the BMW International, 7th at The K Club and 8th in the European Masters this year. This is hugely encouraging in such a short space of time and when combined with his effort at the course last year, is enough to tempt me into giving this talented Japanese star a shot of winning the tour's flagship event this week.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
You can access all our latest Golf Odds over on Betfred.com
You can find all Jamie's latest Golf Betting Tips over on our dedicated golf Insights hub.
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