BMW Championship 2024 Tips: Can Jamie make it six from six?

Our golf tipster Jamie Worsley is red-hot right now, picking up five winners in his last five weeks of Betfred previews. Here he is back with another comprehensive preview on the PGA Tour and he's picked out four players to consider backing each-way, as he takes us through his BMW Championship Betting Tips...

Some winners are easier than others and for much of last week’s final round of the FedEx St Jude Championship, it looked like Hideki Matsuyama would provide us with a relatively stress-free victor.

The Japanese star carried a healthy five-shot advantage into Sunday after a blistering display of approach play and putting over the first three days. He wasn’t quite as dialled in at the start of the fourth round but scrambled well to keep everyone at bay and finally finding a couple of birdies around the turn, it looked like he would coast to victory.

Hideki received a visit from the rules officials on the 12^th hole about a possible violation on the 7^th, which was quickly sorted and resulted in no penalty, though he was clearly unnerved by this. He three-putt that hole and then managed to get it up-and-down well on the 14^th for bogey after finding water off-the-tee, maintaining a now reduced two-shot lead.

Things got even worse on the short par 4 15^th, as he made double following a quickfire pair of duffed chips from the greenside rough. With Viktor Hovland making birdie on the hole ahead, he now found himself behind and having failed to birdie that same hole, it was hard to see how he could possibly recompose himself and go on to take this title.

However, much like it had for the rest of the week, the putter helped him out on the 17^th, as he holed a near 27-footer for birdie to retake the lead. He then finished the event like the champion he is, hitting a nerveless drive into the dangerous final fairway and proceeded to guide a superb approach to 5ft for birdie, which he duly holed for an ultimate two-shot victory.

In many ways, the way Matsuyama had to battle for this win was more impressive than if he’d have just pulled further and further away from the field. He looked in complete freefall but showed tonnes of resilience to recover and finish the event in style, all without his regular caddy on the bag.

It’s a victory that puts him in a handy position of 3^rd in the FedExCup, as the top-50 in the standings now head to Colorado for the second of our Playoff events, the BMW Championship at Castle Pines Golf Club.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The BMW Championship debuted on the PGA Tour as part of the first FedExCup Playoffs in 2007. It has been played in this position on the schedule – preceding the season-ending Tour Championship – on every occasion.

The event is open to just the top-50 from the FedExCup standings at the completion of last week’s FedEx St Jude Championship. They will all be playing to make their way inside/stay in the top-30 to advance to East Lake and the Tour Championship next week, where an incredible $25million prize awaits the winner.

Tiger Woods won the inaugural edition in 2007 and became the first two-time winner in 2009. Dustin Johnson has also won the event twice, recording his victories in 2010 and 2016, whilst Patrick Cantlay joined them in 2022, as earned the second of his back-to-back wins.

Last five winners:

• 2023 – Winner: Viktor Hovland (-17); runners-up: Matt Fitzpatrick, Scottie Scheffler (-15)
• 2022 – Winner: Patrick Cantlay (-14); runner-up: Scott Stallings (-13)
• 2021 – Winner: Patrick Cantlay (-27, playoff); runner-up: Bryson DeChambeau (-27)
• 2020 – Winner: Jon Rahm (-4, playoff); runner-up: Dustin Johnson (-4)
• 2019 – Winner: Justin Thomas (-25); runner-up: Patrick Cantlay (-22)

Viktor Hovland won last year’s BMW Championship at Olympia Fields, before going on to be crowned FedExCup Champion the following week. He returns to defend his title after a much more encouraging performance in last week’s St Jude Championship, where he finished 2^nd.

THE COURSE

The BMW Championship moves around most years and will be staged at Castle Pines Golf Club for the first time this week. However, this isn’t the first time that the Jack Nicklaus design will be seen on the PGA Tour, having previously hosted The International from 1986-2006.

At 8130 yards, this mammoth par 72 will become the longest course in PGA Tour history this week. Having said that, situated at high altitude of close to 6300ft above sea level, which means the ball will fly around 7.3% further, it will play at closer to 7535 yards. It contains 10x par 4s (439-545 yards), 4x par 5s (532-662 yards) and 4x par 3s (200-254 yards).

Built on natural, rolling terrain within a pine forest in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains, the picturesque Castle Pines Golf Club features frequent and often striking elevation changes and water hazards that come into play on 10 holes.

The fairways are fairly generous, though do narrow somewhat on the back nine and are protected by strategically placed bunkers and some potentially brutish 4-inch-thick bluegrass/fescue rough.

The predominantly raised bentgrass/poa mixed greens are small-average in size (5600 sq. ft.) and will be intended to play at a super speedy 13 on the stimpmeter this week. These contoured surfaces are often narrow/shallow in shape, with many at an angle, meaning the landing spots on them can be difficult to find. Run-offs offer protection, along with more of that intimidating bunkering.

Water plays a pivotal role down the closing stretch, coming into play on seven of the course’s final nine holes. This includes on each of the final two par 5s and the last of the par 3s, the 226-yard 16^th, where it guards the putting surface left and short.

It’s tough to know exactly what to expect of the venue after 18 years away. Although, that finish at least ensures drama aplenty as players battle to earn their stab at the Tour Championship next week.

THE WEATHER

There are some thunderstorms forecast in the buildup to the event, but they are scheduled to disappear before the first tee shot on Thursday. Conditions are predicted to be dry and warm for most of the tournament, barring the odd passing shower, and with little in the way of severe winds, the players shouldn’t be hindered too much by the elements.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach
• Greens-in-Regulation
• SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
• SG: Putting (bentgrass/poa mix)

This lengthy, penal course shouts strong ball-strikers and as with most Nicklaus designs, it’s the approach play that will be the standout requirement. Elevation changes and altitude will make controlling approach distance extra difficult this week, let alone into smallish surfaces on which pins can be tightly tucked.

The driver will too be key and even accounting for that extra distance that all players will pick up, it’s hard to see one of the shorter hitters in the field conquering this monster layout.

Lastly, these fast, undulating greens will prove a significant challenge and those with quality experience on similarly speedy bentgrass/poa greens should have an advantage.

CORRELATING EVENTS

There is no comp form to help us out this week but there are a few obvious places to start in terms of correlating events.

Whilst the field for the event is usually much weaker than what we’ll see this week, the Barracuda Championship at Tahoe Mountain Club’s Old Greenwood Course has to be worth a look. It’s a fellow Jack Nicklaus design played at altitude, that features comparably sized bentgrass/poa mixed greens.

The Nicklaus theme is one we can stick with, and the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village is perhaps his most recognizable tour design. Again, we’re looking at a course that will play at a similar length when accounting for the altitude and possesses small, quick bentgrass greens.

The Shriners Open at TPC Summerlin and WGC – Mexico Championship at Club de Golf Chapultepec are/were further tour events played at altitude; The Ascendant at TPC Colorado on the Korn Ferry Tour is another event played on a mammoth golf course in this area; and for those with plenty of DP World Tour experience, the Nedbank Golf Challenge at Gary Player Country Club and Omega European Masters at Crans-sur-Sierre should be considered.

THE FIELD

This 50-man field for our penultimate event of the season is, as you’d expect, a high-class one, with world #61, Tom Hoge the lowest-ranked player in the field.

Viktor Hovland’s superb and somewhat surprising runner-up finish last week means he’s back to defend his title. He is one of seven former winners in attendance, joined by Patrick Cantlay (2022, 2021), Justin Thomas (2019), Keegan Bradley (2018), Jason Day (2015), Billy Horschel (2014) and Rory McIlroy (2012).

Hovland, along with Eric Cole and Nick Dunlap sprung into the top-50 after the completion of the St Jude Championship, with Tom Kim, Mackenzie Hughes and Jake Knapp all making way. Meanwhile, Cam Davis and Keegan Bradley both make it into the event by the skin of their teeth in 49^th and 50^th position respectively.

Looking towards next week, where only the top-30 in the FedExCup standings will head to East Lake for the Tour Championship, Tom Hoge (28), Brian Harman (29), Denny McCarthy (30), Tommy Fleetwood (31), Chris Kirk (32) and Corey Conners (33) are the players right around that cut-line, who will need a positive week to make it to the season finale.

*You can get all the up to date and live BMW Championship Odds over on betfred.com.

SELECTIONS

Market leaders: Scottie Scheffler 18/5, Xander Schauffele 13/2, Rory McIlroy 10/1, Collin Morikawa 12/1, Ludvig Aberg 18/1, Viktor Hovland 20/1, Hideki Matsuyama 20/1

Despite being down to a 50-man field, there’s some decent value knocking around this week. Viktor Hovland’s return to form certainly caught the eye in Memphis and he’ll be a popular pick here. It remains to be seen whether he can maintain that, as he also performed well at the PGA Championship back in May before slipping off the radar again.

Instead, I’m drawn to one of last week’s selections and two-time winner in this event, Patrick Cantlay. He played well after a slow start at TPC Southwind and with bags of appealing correlating form, he can become the first three-time winner in the event’s history.

2.25 pts Patrick Cantlay each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 22/1

Cantlay went into last week after recording finishes of 3^rd in the US Open, 5^th in the Travelers Championship and 25^th in The Open on his previous three starts. However, he’d been absent for four weeks and it told in the opening round, as he shot 2-over and languished near the bottom of the leaderboard after round one.

With the cobwebs blown away, he improved as the event went on, shooting a 3-under 67 in round two and following a pair of 66s over the weekend, he rose up to a 12^th-place finish.

He did most things well over rounds two, three and four and looked especially good in approach over the weekend. That was a continuation of the form he’d been showing over those preceding starts and now back in full flow after his mini-break, he can hit the ground running in Colorado.

Cantlay’s comp form is among the most encouraging in this field, possessing two wins at Jack’s Place, Muirfield Village; a win and three runner-up finishes in the Shriners Open; and we can find further evidence of his ability to perform at altitude from his 6^th-place finish in the 2019 WGC – Mexico Championship. This, along with his recent results made him a standout in this field and can take him to a third BMW Championship win this week.

2 pts Tommy Fleetwood each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 25/1

Tommy Fleetwood is another proven altitude performer and having hit the ball beautifully in Memphis, he can finally make that long overdue PGA Tour breakthrough this week.

Tommy arrived at the St Jude Championship with his confidence flying high after claiming the silver medal at Le Golf National on his previous start. He began well at TPC Southwind, shooting a 66 to sit 5^th after round one but didn’t quite kick on from there, eventually finishing 22^nd. That being said, he struck it superbly, ranking 1^st in ball-striking and particularly excelled with his irons, ranking 2^nd in greens-in-regulation and 3^rd in approach.

The main reason for his lack of progress there was the putter, as he ranked last of the 70 players in the field, producing his worst performance with the club in over two years. This is an area in which he’s been perfectly solid in 2024, and I’d expect him to bounce back this week.

Fleetwood’s proficiency at altitude is well on display from two victories in South Africa, in the Nedbank Challenge at Gary Player Country Club. He also finished inside the top-20 in each of his four visits to Club de Golf Chapultepec, including a runner-up finish in 2017. He can rely on these experiences to gain victory in Colorado.

1.25 pts Justin Thomas each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 40/1

Justin Thomas is another player who found his chances damaged by the putter last week. However, there was plenty of positivity to be found within his tee-to-green game and possessing some notable results at altitude, he looks a decent price to end his lengthy (for him) winless run.

Signs have been promising throughout JT’s last 10 starts. He’s hit the top-10 three times, most recently when finishing 5^th in the Travelers Championship four starts ago, and despite finishing no better than 31^st in his two starts in Scotland, he started both events well.

Like Cantlay, he’d been absent since The Open, but he started much better at TPC Southwind, opening with a 3-under 67 and bookended his tournament with the same score on Sunday to finish 30^th.

He ranked 10^th tee-to-green last week but 59^th out of 70 on the greens. His approach play stood out above everything else, much as it has all season, ranking 12^th; although, he had been putting better prior to last week and I’m hoping his performance there was just a small bump in the road.

Thomas’ record in Mexico was exceptional, finishing inside the top-10 in each of his four visits and going close when losing out to Phil Mickelson in a playoff in 2018. His 4^th-place finish on debut in the Nedbank Challenge last year again showed his comfort at altitude and as someone with two top-5s at Muirfield Village, he has plenty in his favour to end his two-year wait for a victory this week.

1 pt Will Zalatoris each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 70/1

Will Zalatoris battled recent form and injury troubles to finish 12^th last week, and now returning to the state in which he recorded his solo Korn Ferry Tour win in 2020, I’m taking him to keep the improvements coming.

Zalatoris made a good start to this season, though following a 9^th-place finish in The Masters, he suffered a serious dip in form. Prior to last week, Zalatoris had failed to record a single top-40 finish in his last 11 starts, during which time his old injuries flared up, causing him to withdraw from the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

He turned that form around in a big way in Memphis, finishing 12^th thanks to strong showings in the middle rounds, firing a 65 on Friday and a 67 on Saturday. He was promisingly strong across the board, ranking 16^th tee-to-green and 17^th in putting, whilst the long game looked in great shape, as he ranked 4^th in greens-in-regulation.

Zalatoris’ first professional victory came on that huge TPC Colorado layout in 2020, which has to be a major plus when faced with similar playing conditions this week. He’s since collected a couple of notable finishes at correlating events on the PGA Tour, finishing 5^th in the Memorial Tournament and Shriners Open, and if last week’s performance does indeed represent a return to form, he’d look a very attractive price in this limited field.

All our latest Golf Odds can be found over on Betfred.com. 

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