Australian PGA Championship 2024 Tips: Cam can continue home dominance

A matter of days after Rory McIlroy waltzed off with a sixth Race to Dubai win that moves him up to second on the all-time list alongside Seve Ballesteros, the race to be crowned the 2025 champion begins in Australia this week.

The Australian PGA Championship kicks things off this week, as a strong home contingent looks to continue their dominance at Royal Queensland Golf Club.

As always, here is Jamie Worsley's comprehensive preview and Australian PGA Championship 2024 Tips, featuring three selections ranging from 8/1 all the way out to 70/1...

This self-titled Opening Swing part of the DP World Tour season has had a slight change in format. Gone are the Australia/South Africa double-headers that we’ve seen in recent years, with the South African and Joburg Opens now moved to more appealing slots in the new year. This allows the prestigious Australian PGA Championship and Australian Open to take centre stage with no distractions over the next two weeks.

The five-week end-of-year run of events will then continue on to South Africa for the Nedbank Challenge and Alfred Dunhill Championship, before the DPWT concludes proceedings for 2024 with its traditional trip to Mauritius.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The Australian PGA Championship is one of the oldest tournaments in the world, with a version of the event having first been played in 1904. The DP World Tour has co-sanctioned every edition alongside the PGA of Australia since 2015, with the exception of the January 2022 renewal.

The event boasts a stellar list of winners, including Gary Player (1957), Peter Thomson (1967), Hale Irwin (1978) and Seve Ballesteros (1981). However, it’s 1960 Open Championship winner, Kel Nagle – the most prolific winner in the history of the PGA of Australia with 61 titles – who leads the way with most wins here, recording six victories (1968, 1965, 1959, 1958, 1954, 1949).

Aussie stars in the modern game have continued to make a name for themselves in this championship, with Cameron Smith (2022, 2018, 2017) and Adam Scott (2019, 2013) winning half of the last 10 renewals between them.

Last five winners:

• 2023 – Winner: Min Woo Lee (-20); runner-up: Rikuya Hoshino (-17)
• 2022 (November) – Winner: Cameron Smith (-14); runners-up: Ryo Hisatsune, Jason Scrivener (-11)
• 2022 (January) – Winner: Jed Morgan (-22); runner-up: Andrew Dodt (-11)
• 2019 – Winner: Adam Scott (-13); runner-up: Michael Hendry (-11)
• 2018 – Winner: Cameron Smith (-16); runner-up: Marc Leishman (-14)

Min Woo Lee added his name to that star-studded list of Australians to lift this trophy last year. He took the lead in round two and never looked back in an impressive display, eventually running out a three-stroke winner over Rikuya Hoshino. He returns to defend this week.

THE COURSE

Royal Queensland Golf Club is back as host of the event for the fourth straight renewal and the sixth time in total, having previously hosted in 2000 and 2001. In addition, it has also staged the Australian Open on three occasions (1947, 1966, 1973) and has held several editions of the Australian Amateur Championship, most recently in 2020, where Jed Morgan beat Tom McKibbin in the final.

Mike Clayton won the 1978 edition of the Australian Amateur here and he was the man responsible for a redesign of the course in 2007, replacing Carnegie Clark’s 1920 original.

Royal Queensland plays as a par 71 and measures 7085 yards, with the short par 5 10^th converted to a par 4 for the tournament. It possesses 11x par 4s (319-499 yards), 4x par 3s (137-197 yards) and 3x par 5s (574-596 yards).

Somewhat resembling Melbourne’s famous sandbelt courses, this flat and loosely tree-lined course sits on the banks of the Brisbane River. It can play very challenging if firm and windy, as we saw with Cameron Smith’s winning score of -14 in 2022. Although, in benign conditions and with greens softened, Min Woo Lee and Jed Morgan have both shown how birdies can flow.

The course is home to some of the widest fairways on the DP World Tour, which have ranked among the easiest to find in the last two years. There is little-to-no rough here, with waste bunkers framing most holes and imposing strategic bunkering protects the fairways, narrowing those landing areas and frequently sitting central in the short grass. Most of the bunkers are large, deep and uneven, making them a serious challenge to play out of, and often leaving a playing relying on luck.

The fairways may be wide, but they require players to demonstrate intelligent decision-making when positioning the ball, in order to give themselves the best chance of attacking the small, elevated greens.

The majority of the putting surfaces are open-fronted, which encourages play along the ground. This, along with the sandy, firm nature of the course had led to many comparisons with traditional British & Irish links.

The movements on the greens vary greatly. Some slope dramatically, whilst others possess more subtle breaks, which can outfox even the best putters. Shaved run-offs repel unprecise approaches and with bad lies common in the prominent bunkering, its short game challenge is among the most penal. Indeed, mastering the green complexes is the key to unlocking the course, with Royal Queensland ranking high in approach, scrambling and putting difficulty in recent years.

Hazards come into play on eight holes, both in the form of water features and marshlands. This helps create many risk/reward holes, with those hazards in-play on each of the three reachable par 5s and the drivable 319-yard par 4 12^th.

The 12^th is one of a contrasting series of par 4s, with several other shorter, more scorable holes balanced with lengthier ones, including the dangerous 499-yard 14^th.

This variety is what makes Royal Queensland such a highly-rated and entertaining venue, and I look forward to seeing the established stars and newcomers alike taking it on this week.

THE WEATHER

The forecast is predicting heavy rains to fall preceding the event and this looks set to stick around as a threat throughout the week, which should make for soft conditions.

Gusts of close to 30mph could make things interesting, though the general wind speeds of 9-11mph that are predominantly scheduled shouldn’t be too troubling. With that, it’s fair to expect another reasonably low-scoring edition on a receptive layout in Brisbane.

KEY STATS

• SG: Around-the-Greens/Scrambling
• SG: Putting
• SG: Approach/Greens-in-Regulation

The DP World Tour only records stats from its own players for these events, thus meaning we have an incomplete and unreliable set of data for past editions at Royal Queensland.

That being said, the two winners here on the DPWT, along with many of other challengers do give us a pretty clear indication of what is required to perform. Unsurprisingly, it’s a strong short game that looks key.

Each of the last two winners here, Min Woo Lee and Cameron Smith both possess excellent short games. It’s also in these areas that runner-up last year, Rikuya Hoshino has most impressed, whilst 4^th-place finisher in 2022, John Parry is sharp around-the-greens.

With small greens that are very penal on a lack of precision, there’s no doubt that strong iron play will also take a player far this week, especially with those softer conditions. Cameron Smith is an elite wedge player at his very best and this is also an area in which 2022 runner-up, Jason Scrivener has done most of his best work.

CORRELATING EVENTS

Mike Clayton has compared Royal Queensland to the Old Course at St Andrews and the similarities are easy to see. Both feature extremely wide and firm fairways littered with bunkers; diverse and challenging green complexes that encourage play along the ground; and generally play to the skillset of the more creative players. Cameron Smith of course won the last Open Championship there in 2022 and it is also worth checking out the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, an event at which two rounds are played at the Old Course.

I’m going to stay in Scotland, and I believe the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club makes sense. Again, we’re talking about a course with wide, firm fairways and very challenging greens and surrounds that can be accessed by going in low. Min Woo Lee is a former winner there.

The Dutch/KLM Open at Bernardus Golf from 2021-2023 can also provide us with some clues. It has some of the most generous fairways on the DPWT and provides a significant challenge on and around its greens, ranking closely to Royal Queensland in scrambling and putting difficulty.

Lastly, despite its more substantial length, the European Open at Green Eagle’s North Course was a strong statistical match. It possesses similar averages to Royal Queensland across the spectrum, with numbers in ball-striking, short game and scoring difficulty all fairly close.

THE FIELD

Jason Day is the highest-ranking player in this field at #31, making his first start at home since the 2017 Australian Open. Defending champion, Min Woo Lee comes next at #48 in the world and there are a further four from the top 100, including two-time PGA Tour winner, Cam Davis. That strong home challenge is enhanced greatly by LIV’s Cameron Smith, Marc Leishman and Lucas Herbert.

There are just two additional former winners playing alongside Lee and Smith this week, with that duo accompanied by Geoff Ogilvy (2008) and Peter Lonard (2007, 2004, 2002).

These early-season fields are always packed full of intrigue as newly-promoted players get their DPWT journeys under way.

We are joined by 11 of the top 22 players on last season’s Challenge Tour, including Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen and John Parry, who both qualified for the DPWT early due to their three wins at that lower level. Talented Finn, Oliver Lindell finally gets a crack at the tour after enjoying an exceptional end to the previous season, finishing inside the top 10 in each of his last nine starts, and Spain’s Angel Ayora is another massively exciting youngster added to the ranks of the tour.

Six of the 21 players who came through Q-School will too make an appearance. This includes multiple DPWT winner, Justin Harding; another promising young Dane in the shape of #12 amateur Jacob Skov Olesen; and the USA’s Ryggs Johnston, who himself only turned pro this year after reaching as high as #32 in the amateur rankings.

Also involved this week is the leading player from last season’s Sunshine Tour, Ryan Van Velzen; Minkyu Kim takes advantage of ranking 2^nd on the KPGA in 2024; and among the tournament invites is the likeable Harry Higgs.

Australian PGA Championship Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Australian PGA Championship market on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this tournament.

SELECTIONS

Market leaders (1/4 5 places): Jason Day 15/2, Min Woo Lee 8/1, Cam Smith 9/1, Marc Leishman 11/1, Jordan Smith 12/1

Min Woo Lee, Cam Smith, Adam Scott, Cam Smith, Cam Smith – only one look at the last five winners of this DPWT-sanctioned event tells you all you need to know about how to tackle the tournament.

High-class home players have simply dominated recent renewals and it’s hard to see the winner coming beyond that small group of individuals. With that, I’m going to take two from the top and at double his price of last year, in a weaker field no less, Cam Smith looks the clear pick.

6 pts Cam Smith win only @ 8/1

Smith has had a solid season over on LIV, recording three runner-up finishes in Hong Kong, Singapore and the UK. He looked in excellent shape in the opening major of the year, finishing 6^th in The Masters, however he did regress throughout the other three, finishing 32^nd in the US Open, 63^rd in the PGA Championship and missing the cut in The Open.

He's headed back over to Australia in recent weeks to compete on the PGA of Australia, finishing 3^rd in the Queensland PGA Championship and 2^nd in the NSW Open last week, an event in which he entered the final round in the lead. He’ll no doubt have liked to put one of those wins away; nonetheless, they look like good primers as he goes into Australia’s two premier events.

Born in Brisbane, this really is a home game for Smith, and he’s recorded each of his three Aussie PGA Championship wins in his home state, including here at Royal Queensland in 2022. As a strong iron player with an electric short game, that win should come as no surprise and with his victory in the 2022 Open Championship at the Old Course franking that particular line of form, there’s nobody at the top that comes close in appeal at these prices.

3 pts Lucas Herbert each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 14/1 

Lucas Herbert was the man who beat Cam Smith in last week’s NSW Open, as he finished with a best-of-the-day 67 to lead home the faltering Smith by three shots. He should arrive here in confident mood after that success, and I think we may just have these two players fighting out the finish again in Queensland.

His LIV campaign has been less impressive that Smith’s, but he did find some of his best golf on that circuit towards the latter end of the season, finishing 6^th in the final two regular events. Away from there, he’s recorded a couple of top 10s on the Asian Tour and his short game looked in typically fine shape on his one major start, when finishing 43^rd in the PGA Championship.

Herbert’s form in these top-tier Aussie events hasn’t been great, but he did finish 7^th both here and in the Australian Open last year. His excellent record in the Scottish Open, where he’s twice finished 4^th, should be a good pointer for Royal Queensland if Min Woo Lee’s win there is anything to go by. In addition to him recording by far his best Open Championship performance at the Old Course in 2022, when he finished 15^th, there are many reasons to fancy his chance this week.

1 pt Elvis Smylie each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 70/1

There’s a lot of talented youngsters descending on Royal Queensland and local boy, Elvis Smylie may just be one of the brightest. He’s been in superb form on the PGA of Australia of late and having gone well at this course each time he’s played, he can compete among his more established compatriots this week.

Smylie was just 18 when he turned pro in 2021, but he’d already proven himself to be one of Australia’s most exciting prospects. He recorded back-to-back wins in the prestigious Keperra Bowl in 2019/2020, won the Australian Boys Amateur in 2019 and took Queensland Stroke Play Championship in 2020.

He immediately took to the pro game, recording two runner-up finishes across his first four starts on the PGA of Australia and continued to perform well over the following years, though it’s in recent months that he’s finally broken through. The prodigious, big-hitting lefty has finished inside the top 10 on four occasions in his last five starts and earned his first pro victory in the WA Open at the end of October.

Smylie has played here in the last three renewals of the event, finishing 12^th in each edition in 2022 and 40^th last year, whilst he also finished 5^th in that 2020 Australian Men’s Amateur. His ability to perform around Royal Queensland is enhanced by the fact that former pro and re-modeller of this week’s course, Mike Clayton has been somewhat of a mentor of his, once describing the young Brisbanite as “a beautiful iron player and one of the best chippers and pitchers of the ball I’ve seen”. He’s even caddied for him on several occasions, and you’d be hoping any insight he’s received in the past can help him to a career-changing performance this week.

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