Australian Open Golf 2024 Tips: Min to win at home

The DP World Tour remains down under as we move from Queensland to Victoria for the Australian Open

As always, here is Jamie Worsley's comprehensive preview and Australian Open 2024 Tips, featuring three selections ranging from 9/1 all the way out to a massive 275/1!

Elvis Smylie has been viewed as the next big thing to come out of Australian golf for a few years now and the 22-year-old lefty showed exactly why we should be excited about him last week, as he produced a brilliant wire-to-wire victory in the Australian PGA Championship.

He took the first-round lead with an excellent 6-under 65. After a 67 in round two, he entered the third and final round of the weather-shortened event with a share of the lead, alongside Cam Smith, a player who has acted as a mentor to the youngster.

You could’ve been forgiven for thinking Smith would have a little too much for his fellow Brisbanite but going 4-under thru 7 on Sunday, Smylie burst into a three-shot lead. His long game wobbled on the back nine, but he never relinquished the lead, displaying some superb short game skills to get up-and-down several times and eventually ran out a two-shot winner over the 2022 Open Champion.

It now means that Smylie will be teeing it up on the DPWT next season amongst an already exciting crop of youngsters. Though having held his nerve to win such a big event in front of his home crowd, and against some high-quality challengers, he may just be the most exciting of the bunch.

Smylie and co now head south to Victoria for the Australian Open, which takes place in the renowned Melbourne Sandbelt at Kingston Health Golf Club and The Victoria Golf Club.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The Australian Open was first staged in 1903, and it has been a mainstay on the golfing calendar ever since, becoming co-sanctioned by the DP World Tour in 2022. This was also the first year that the Women’s Australian Open took place on the same week and on the same courses, with both sets of players competing for equal prize money.

The roll of honour for the event is an impressive one, with Gary Player the most successful player in its history, recording seven wins (1974, 1970, 1969, 1965, 1963, 1962, 1958). His friend and then rival, Jack Nicklaus comes next on the list with six victories (1978, 1976, 1975, 1971, 1968, 1964)

Greg Norman (1996, 1995, 1987, 1985, 1980) and Ivo Whitton (1931, 1929, 1926, 1913, 1912) are the leading Australians with five wins each. Five-time Open Champion, Peter Thomson (1972, 1967, 1951) has recorded three victories in his home open and we’ve seen Aussie talent continue to thrive in the event into the present day, with wins for Matt Jones (2019, 2015), Cam Davis (2017), Geoff Ogilvy (2010) and Adam Scott (2009), among many more.

That being said, the two most successful players in the tournament’s history aren’t Aussies and this theme of world class international talent excelling in the event isn’t exclusive to Player and Nicklaus, or players of that era. Victories for the likes of Gene Sarazen (1936), Bobby Locke (1955), Arnold Palmer (1966), Tom Watson (1984), Lee Westwood (1997), Rory McIlroy (2013) and Jordan Spieth (2016, 2014), emphasise the standing of this championship.

Last five winners:

• 2023 – Winner: Joaquin Niemann (-14, playoff); runner-up: Rikuya Hoshino (-14)
• 2022 – Winner: Adrian Meronk (-14); runner-up: Adam Scott (-9)
• 2019 – Winner: Matt Jones (-15); runner-up: Louis Oosthuizen (-14)
• 2018 – Winner: Abraham Ancer (-16); runner-up: Dimi Papadatos (-11)
• 2017 – Winner: Cam Davis (-11); runners-up: Jonas Blixt, Matt Jones (-10)

*    2021 and 2020 editions cancelled due to COVID

Chile’s Joaquin Niemann won his first DPWT-sanctioned event in last year’s renewal, beating Rikuya Hoshino from Japan in a playoff. He returns to defend this week and aims to become the first player since Peter Lonard (2004, 2003) to successfully retain this prestigious old title.

THE COURSES

The Australian Open doesn’t tend to spend too long in the same place and it’s back to the famous, golf-rich Melbourne Sandbelt for this year’s renewal.

As with the 2022 edition, the event will be played across two courses that are ranked among the best in Australia and the world: Kingston Heath Golf Club and The Victoria Golf Club. However, whereas three of the four rounds two years ago were played at Victoria, it is the more challenging Kingston Heath that will be the main host this around; exclusively hosting the event over the weekend after the fields (both men’s and women’s) have played a round each at both courses.

These two courses have hosted 11 Australian Opens between them and have also staged many other events, both pro and amateur. Each held several editions of the now defunct Australian Masters and the still-standing Vic Open, as well as multiple Victoria Amateur Championships, for which Kingston Heath co-hosts the prelude, the Port Phillip Open Amateur.

Course details:

Kingston Heath Golf Club: 7259-yard par 72; 3x par 3s (154-187 yards), 12x par 4s (194-488 yards), 3x par 5s (503-612 yards)

The Victoria Golf Club: 6887-yard par 71; 4x par 3s (157-195 yards), 11x par 4s (252-490 yards), 3x par 5s (504-606 yards)

Both Kingston Heath and Victoria were originally designed in the 1920s and commissioned Dr. Alister MacKenzie – famed designer of Augusta National – to work his magic on the existing layouts, with changes to bunkering and green complexes the most prominent of his expert recommendations. Mike Clayton then performed a restoration of these design elements at Victoria in 1996.

Golf in this part of the Sandbelt is as distinctive as links courses are to the UK & Ireland, and the characteristics of these two courses epitomise this.

Built on flat, sandy terrain, they can both run extremely firm if weather allows. Trees help frame holes but don’t impede too much and there is little rough, with fairways instead lined with rugged sandy wasteland, from which a difficult lie is probable but rarely unplayable.

Fairways across the two courses are generous and require players to be smart off the tee, with it imperative to create suitable angles of attack into the greens.

The putting surfaces at Kingston Heath vary in size, though at Victoria they are predominantly large. Each set can play lightning fast and mix both dramatic undulations with more subtle, hard-to-read breaks. They’re attractively shaped around a plethora of deep, large and natural-looking bunkers that intimidatingly litter both of these setups from tee-to-green, helping to create a severe short-game challenge.

Not only are these two courses a great challenge but there are fun, possessing several risk/reward opportunities across the 36 holes. This includes drivable par 4s at both and par 5s which are reachable for most in the field, whilst there are also more demanding holes that can be shortened and made easier by taking on the strategically-placed bunkering that guards the fairways.

There is that different tournament setup to contend with this week and with Kingston Heath playing more than half a shot more difficult than Victoria (relative to par) in 2022, we can expect an even more demanding challenge this time around.

THE WEATHER

There is a little bit of everything on offer this week where the weather is concerned. Thunderstorms could blight the prelims and opening round, leaving us with a softened course in the process.

Those storms do make way for clearer and less volatile conditions over the next three rounds, though with a constant stiff breeze from 10-14mph and gusts at upwards of 20, there’s enough to keep players on their toes.

KEY STATS

• SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
• SG: Around-the-Greens/Scrambling/Sand Saves
• Par 4 Scoring

It’s hard to take anything conclusive from the 2022 edition due to this year’s differing setup and this is a tournament that will likely require a player to be sharp throughout the bag. Having said that, it was notable how lengthy, high-class drivers dominated the top of the leaderboard there and with the longer course more important this time around, I’d expect that necessity to heighten.

Adrian Meronk has excelled in this area throughout his pro career and ran out a dominant five-shot winner across these courses. Runner-up Adam Scott and 3^rd-place finisher, Min Woo Lee also excel with driver and young Aussie, Haydon Barron in 4^th is another player at his best with driver, whist all pack plenty of power.

The smaller greens and general difficulty of Kingston Heath should also put added strain on the short game, and I’d be keen to side with players who are adept at getting it up-and-down this week.

Additionally, the volume of par 4s across the two courses also makes it important for players to score well on these holes.

CORRELATING EVENTS

There’s nothing that quite replicates golf in the Melbourne Sandbelt completely but the firm, sandy nature of the courses certainly shares some similarities with other styles of golf.

Links golf immediately comes to mind. Despite these courses being more exposed, they’re built on flat, sandy terrain and are intended to play firm. Fairways are often wide; bunkers are a prominent defence and green complexes are undulating. Form in The Open Championship, Scottish Open and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship should all be considered a positive.

For the same reasons, I believe we can look towards golf in the Middle East to give us some clues. Again, we’re dealing with largely flat, firm and sandy courses, which are heavily bunkered and possess undulating greens. Therefore, it could prove worthwhile to check for form in events such as the Qatar Masters, Dubai Desert Classic, Abu Dhabi Championship, Ras Al Khaimah Championship, Bahrain Championship and Oman Open.

Lastly, going to that amateur level of the game, the prestigious Australian Master of the Amateurs is an event in which many top amateurs tee it up and is always played on these Melbourne Sandbelt courses.

THE FIELD

Our field for this week’s Australian Open possesses most of the same players who teed it up last week. Jason Day is the most noteworthy exception and means that Min Woo Lee enters the week as our highest-ranking player at #49. Cam Davis tees it up again, as do that LIV trio of Cam Smith, Marc Leishman and Lucas Herbert, making for another formidable Aussie challenge.

Joaquin Niemann returns to defend his title at this different pair of host courses and is one of five former winners, joined by Cam Davis (2017), Geoff Ogilvy (2010), John Senden (2006) and Peter Lonard (2004, 2003).

Elvis Smylie looks to go back-to-back in these major Australian events, whilst among the tournament invites are talented Japanese amateur, Rintaro Nakano and Karl Vilips, who only turned pro in June this year and has already earned himself a spot on the PGA Tour thanks to a speedy first victory on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Australian Open Golf Odds

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SELECTIONS

Market leaders (1/4 5 places): Joaquin Niemann 9/2, Cam Smith 7/1, Min Woo Lee 9/1, Marc Leishman 11/1, Lucas Herbert 14/1, Cam Davis 16/1, Jordan Smith 16/1

Much like last week, I feel it’s important to have the top of the betting covered and did consider giving Cam Smith another shot. However, he’s had three chances to win in Australia in recent weeks and with his record in this event not as positive as his form in the PGA, I passed him over.

Lucas Herbert and Cam Davis also came under consideration, though there’s no player who looks as perfect a fit for the test that awaits this week than Min Woo Lee, and he goes in as the headline selection.

5 pts Min woo Lee win only @ 9/1

Min Woo had been in solid form in these latter weeks of the season, and he carried this over to last week’s Australian PGA Championship, finishing 15^th. This was his sixth top-25 finish in his last nine starts and means he’s now finished 32^nd-or-better in eight of those efforts.

The stats for that performance are incomplete but they still tell a very familiar story, in that he drove the ball better and looked sharper around-the-greens than anyone in the field. Indeed, he ranks as the strongest player in this field in both of those areas combined in 2024, ranking 3^rd off-the-tee and 5^th around-the-greens, and with the power he possesses he looks ideal.

Lee finished 3^rd in this event in 2022, firing a respectable 2-under 70 at Kingston Heath, whilst he’s no stranger to winning in the state of Victoria, having claimed his first DP World Tour success in the 2020 Vic Open. He finished 3^rd in the 2016 Victorian Amateur Championship – an amateur event that takes place in part at Kingston Heath – and he has further form in the Sandbelt, finishing 4^th in the 2018 Australian Masters of the Amateurs at Royal Melbourne. His victory in the 2021 Scottish Open again shows his ability to perform on firm, flat, sandy courses and along with several top 5s in the Middle East, he has a profile that is hard to beat in Melbourne.

2 pts David Micheluzzi each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 25/1 

Melbourne native David Micheluzzi has been competing well in these premier Australian events for a couple of years and coming in after another strong showing last week, he can finally breakthrough at Kingston Heath on Sunday.

Micheluzzi has played his first full season on the DPWT this year and enjoyed a great debut stint, making it all the way to the playoffs and the Abu Dhabi Championship. He’s recorded seven top 25s, three of them top 10s and going closest when 2^nd in the BMW International Open. He started the new season in good shape last week, finishing 5^th thanks to three rounds in the 60s.

The short game was key to those performances, as he ranked 4^th in putting and 32^nd on the greens. Additionally, he does most of his best work on the par 4s, ranking 29^th in par 4 scoring. The ball-striking wasn’t up to scratch, but I was taken with how he drove it in Brisbane and I’m hoping he can carry that over to this week.

There are few players more comfortable with golf in this area than the Victorian. He’s a member of nearby Peninsula Kingswood Country Golf Club – one of the eight Sandbelt courses. Additionally, upon firing an 8-under 63 at The Victoria Golf Club in 2022, he remarked “I’ve been here a hundred times. So, I know this course like it’s the back of my hand and I got the putter going too, which was kind of nice.”, before later commenting on Kingston Heath “I know that course better.”

Micheluzzi is a former winner of the aforementioned Victorian Amateur Championship, as well as claiming the Australian Master of the Amateurs at Royal Melbourne in 2018. The former #2 amateur can lean on these experiences and having no doubt been spurred on by seeing what Smylie did at home last week, I’m fully expecting him to be in the reckoning in Melbourne.

1 pt Daniel Hillier each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 50/1

Daniel Hillier has the driving ability and knowledge of this brand of golf to tame these two courses. With that, he can make history this week, by becoming the first New Zealander to win the Australian Open title.

Hillier didn’t manage to replicate the successes of his 2023 rookie season on the DPWT this year, but he still had a relatively consistent season. He was particularly solid towards the end, making nine of his last 10 cuts and recording four top 25s, three of which came in top-class events, when 19^th in The Open, 18^th in the BMW PGA Championship and 25^th in the Dunhill Links. A 43^rd- place finish last week offered a decent amount of promise having returned from a four-week absence and I’m expecting him to kick on in Melbourne.

He hit his irons well there and it is with the long game that he excels. Though it’s the driver that has been the standout club in 2024, for which he ranks 15^th in this field and as 11^th in driving distance he’s also one of the longest.

Hillier didn’t especially shine in this event in 2022, but he is no stranger to performing well in the Melbourne Sandbelt, finishing 6^th and 9^th in the 2019 and 2017 editions of the Australian Masters of the Amateurs at Royal Melbourne. He’s also started to amass some good links/desert form, most notable of which is that top 20 in this year’s Open Championship and having already tasted success at this level, he looks a decent price to earn that groundbreaking victory this week.

1 pt Harrison Crowe each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 200/1

Harrison Crowe is another on a rather long list of talented young Aussies, reaching a high of #23 in the amateur rankings, having won both the Australian Masters of the Amateurs and Asia-Pacific Amateur Championship in 2022. He has an array of form on the Sandbelt to his name from this period and having performed well last week, he looks well worth a shot of repeating what Smylie did last week – a player he’d have played a lot of golf against in those amateur days.

Crowe has mixed his time between the PGA of Australia and Asian Tour this year. He’s done little of note in Asia but looks a different player at home, recording two 5^th-place finishes across his first seven starts this year and instantly returned to form when arriving back in Australia a couple of starts ago, producing finishes of 37^th and 7^th on the home tour, before an excellent 8^th-place finish in last week’s co-sanctioned event.

It's hard to decipher too much about his game. From the little evidence we have he appears a solid, lengthy driver and more impressively, he was very good around-the-greens at Augusta in 2023. That is no mean feat at that course and bodes well for here, not least because of that MacKenzie connection.

Crowe was still an amateur when he missed the cut in this event in 2022, therefore it’s an easy enough result to ignore. Instead, we can take plenty of confidence from his 2022 Australian Masters of the Amateurs win, which came at one of this week’s hosts, The Victoria Golf Club and that belief he can perform well this week is strengthened by the fact he’s also a two-time winner of the Victorian Amateur Championship.

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