Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025 FRL Tips: Thomas offers value to lead on day one

The PGA Tour serves up the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week at Bay Hill in Florida and our resident golf tipster Jamie Worsley is offering his expertise to help our punters find value over the course of the week.

He previews the opening round and gives his thoughts on the players who he feels have a good chance of taking the lead on Thursday. Check out his Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025 FRL Tips below.

Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025 Odds

The forecast for tomorrow's opening round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational looks largely even, with sunshine and a strong breeze predicted throughout the day. That being said, those winds are projected to die down a touch at the end of the round and with cool morning temperatures rising as the day develops, the advantage may lie with the later starters on Thursday at Bay Hill. 

This 72-man field will all tee-off on hole #1 tomorrow in pairs, with the first twosome out at 07:40 and the final duo beginning their week at 13:50. Consistent wind speeds of 16mph and gusts of 29mph are on the cards for much of the round, but they do start to drop at around 15:00 and with morning temperatures of 12C climbing to highs of 21C at around the same time, those out late will finish the day in the best conditions. 

With that, I'm going to focus all of my attention in this week's first-round leader market on the later starters, specifically those that tee off after 12:00. 

1.25 pts Justin Thomas each-way (1/4 5 places) @ 33/1

Start time: 13:10 

Justin Thomas has made a good start to the new season, which has been engineered by some strong round one performances. He's played well on his last two visits here, doing so despite generally struggling on the greens and having made gains with the putter in 2025, he can get off to a flyer at Bay Hill. 

Thomas has recorded three top 10s over his five starts this season, with a best of second in The AmEx. He's gaining strokes across his game but as you'd expect, it's his approach play that has shone most, ranking third in this field. 

In addition to that, he ranks 4th in round one performance across his last 10 events and has opened with an under par round in seven of his last eight. This includes opening with a 66 in Phoenix to sit 4th after round one. 

Thomas first played here in 2015, finishing 49th but didn't return until 2023. He finished 21st there, following with an improved 12th-place finish last year – an event in which he opened with a 69 to hit the top 10 on day one – and with a 67 in 2023 a further indication of his ability to score here, he has every chance of taking the first-round lead. 

Golf Odds

1 pt Will Zalatoris each-way (1/4 5 places) @ 45/1

Start time: 12:15 

Will Zalatoris has looked solid at the beginning of 2025 and has already demonstrated his ability to go low in round one in Hawaii. He's recorded two top 10s in four visits to Bay Hill and with several rounds in the 60s to his name, he looks a good candidate for the first-round lead. 

Zalatoris started the season with a 26th-place finish in The Sentry and has recorded two top 25s over his next three starts, with his best effort coming when 12th in The AmEx. 

He's looked good in approach, ranking 24th in this field in his last five events and has been starting particularly well over that same period, ranking 12th in round one performance. His standout round one effort came in The Sentry on that first start of the year, as he opened with an eight-under 65 to end the day in second. 

Zalatoris finished 10th on his debut in this event in 2021 and went even better than that when returning for the fourth time last year, finishing fourth. He's got a couple of 68s at the course to his name, one of which came in the opening round in 2022 to guide him into fifth place in round one and he also hit the top 10 at the start last year, after opening with a three-under-par round.

0.75 pts Chris Kirk each-way (1/4 5 places) @ 80/1

Start time: 12:25 

Chris Kirk has had a disappointing start to this season, but he enters this week after his best approach performance of 2025 at PGA National and possessing a strong record here, he can make a swift start at Bay Hill. 

Kirk has made six appearances this season, recording a best of just 34th in The AmEx. He's driven the ball well for the most part but been inconsistent with the rest of his game. However, a ranking of 15th in approach last week was the standout of his season and despite his overall underwhelming results, he has made some positive starts. 

His best opening round effort came at The AmEx, where he shot an eight-under 64 to sit third after round one. In addition, he fired a five-under 66 to finish the first round in 16th place in last week's Cognizant Classic. 

Kirk has played here on 12 occasions, missing just three cuts. His strongest performance came in 2022 when he finished fifth but further to that, he has begun this event with an under par round in each of the last six renewals, which includes a 67 in 2023 that took him into second place on day one.

You can find all Jamie's latest Golf Betting Tips over on our dedicated golf Insights hub.