Andalucia Masters 2024 Tips: Perez to be the Victor in Spain?

With the end of the DP World Tour season rapidly approaching, this week signals the tour’s final event of the year on European soil, as the players make their way to Southern Spain for the Andalucia Masters at Real Club de Golf Sotogrande.

As always, here are Jamie Worsley's Andalucia Masters 2024 Tips, featuring five selections ranging from 28/1 to 175/1...

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The Andalucia Masters debuted in 2010, though was cancelled in 2012 due to a lack of funding. It returned in 2017 and has remained on the schedule since, with Real Club de Golf Sotogrande replacing Valderrama as the host course last year.

Sergio Garcia is the only player to win multiple Andalucia Masters titles, having followed Graeme McDowell’s victory in the inaugural edition with a win in 2011. He then won the first two renewals after the event returned from its six-year hiatus in 2017.

Last five winners:

• 2023 – Winner: Adrian Meronk (-16); runner-up: Matti Schmid (-15)
• 2022 – Winner: Adrian Otaegui (-19); runner-up: Joakim Lagergren (-13)
• 2021 – Winner: Matt Fitzpatrick (-6); runners-up: Min Woo Lee, Sebastian Soderberg (-3)
• 2020 – Winner: John Catlin (+2); runner-up: Martin Kaymer (+3)
• 2019 – Winner: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-10); runners-up: Adri Arnaus, Eduardo de la Riva, Mike Lorenzo-Vera, Alvaro Quiros, Jon Rahm (-4)

Adrian Meronk won the first edition at our new host last year, clawing back a four-shot deficit in the final round to beat Germany’s Matti Schmid by one shot. Unfortunately, he isn’t back to defend this week.

THE COURSE

Real Club de Golf Sotogrande opened for play in 1964 and is the work of renowned architect, Robert Trent Jones Snr. It regularly ranks among the best courses not only in Spain, but in Continental Europe.

It’s a former Open de Espana host and was used as one of the courses for the DP World Tour’s Q-School from 1996-2001. Furthermore, it annually hosts the Copa Sotogrande – a prestigious amateur event in which many of this week’s competitors will have played, and which has been won by such esteemed names as Rory McIlroy and Sergio Garcia in the past.

RCG Sotogrande is a par 72 and measures a short 7101 yards. It possesses 10x par 4s (338-470 yards), 4x par 5s (528-594 yards) and 4x par 3s (179-221 yards).

This rolling course is packed full of elevation changes and features a variety of matures trees that frame the fairways and enclose many of the putting surfaces. Whilst water features come into play on seven holes.

The undulating, doglegging fairways are extremely generous. That being said, they are well protected by large strategically placed bunkers and still require a level of thought to position the ball in the optimum position to attack the bermudagrass greens.

Said greens are around average in size overall, some very small and others large, and are often narrow/shallow in shape. These fast, sloping surfaces are largely elevated and proved very tough to hit last year, with a plethora of steep run-offs and deep, striking white sand bunkers, that regularly sit well below the level of the green, making for a challenging short-game test.

The -16 winning score last year represents the dangers that await throughout, though there are plenty of scoring chances. The four par 5s feature some risk/reward holes but are all reachable in two, whilst the par 4s are predominantly short, with four measuring under 400 yards, including the potentially drivable 338-yard 3^rd.

It’s also worth noting that last year’s edition was the scene of some very challenging conditions, and with much kinder weather predicted this time around, we could see some lower scoring.

THE WEATHER

Thunderstorms and heavy rain are forecast in the buildup to this week’s event, though they are set to disappear before Thursday. This could leave us with a receptive course and with a relatively mild breeze not likely to cause too many problems, it could be there to be attacked.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach
• Greens-in-Regulation

Possessing only one year of data to draw upon, it makes sense to treat last year’s stats with a hint of caution. With likely receptive greens and reasonably benign conditions, I expect strong iron play to matter most into these tricky putting surfaces.

Each of the top 5 last year performed solidly in approach, with four of them ranked inside the top 20. Winner, Adrian Meronk ranked 19^th, Louis de Jager in 4^th ranked 2^nd in greens-in-regulation and 3^rd in approach, whilst fellow 4^th-place finisher, Chase Hanna ranked top 10 in each area.

• SG: Off-the-Tee
• Driving Distance

It was striking how many big hitters occupied the top of the leaderboard last year but not surprising considering the generosity of the fairways.

All of the top 5 ranked inside the top 20 in driving distance and in addition, 2^nd and 3^rd-place finishers, Matti Schmid and Richard Mansell, ranked 2^nd and 1^st in SG: off-the-tee respectively.

• SG: Putting

The slopes on these greens can be hard to conquer and avoiding three-putts will be a real challenge.

Adrian Meronk managed to get the better of them last year, ranking 1^st in putting on his way to victory. Meanwhile, Chase Hanna in 4^th ranked 3^rd.

• Par 5 Scoring

Finally, the par 5s are there to be got at and anybody leaving too many birdies on them out on the course will find themselves up against it.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

We don’t have much comp form to go off due to this week’s course only hosting one renewal of this event, but some eye-catching links did arise last year.

Open de Espana (Club de Campo Villa de Madrid)

Club de Campo is another hilly, tree-lined course with frequent elevation changes. Large and deep bunkers offer protection to both the small greens and somewhat generous, doglegging fairways, whilst there are similarly handy scoring chances on the par 5s and several shorter par 4s.

Notable correlating form:

Richard Mansell:

RCG Sotogrande (3^rd) / Open de Espana (6^th)

Louis de Jager:

RCG Sotogrande (4^th) / Open de Espana (6^th)

Jeff Winther:

RCG Sotogrande (6^th) / Open de Espana (4^th)

Marcel Siem:

RCG Sotogrande (7^th) / Open de Espana (4^th)

Matthieu Pavon:

RCG Sotogrande (9^th) / Open de Espana (1^st, 2^nd)

South African Open (Blair Atholl)

Though a much lengthier layout, Blair Atholl’s wide fairways, elevation changes, penal bunkers and challenging putting surfaces resulted in it developing some noteworthy form-ties with this week’s host course.

Notable correlating form:

Matti Schmid:

RCG Sotogrande (2^nd) / Blair Atholl (4^th)

Louis de Jager:

RCG Sotogrande (4^th) / Blair Atholl (5^th)

Chase Hanna:

RCG Sotogrande (4^th) / Blair Atholl (5^th)

Marcel Siem:

RCG Sotogrande (7^th) / Blair Atholl (5^th)

Indian Open (DLF G&CC)

DLF G&CC is a tree-lined course with dramatic elevation changes, some generous fairways, which are protected by strong strategic bunkering, and large bermudagrass greens. All of which ties in with RCG Sotogrande.

Notable correlating form:

Jeff Winther:

RCG Sotogrande (6^th) / Indian Open (9^th)

Marcel Siem:

RCG Sotogrande (7^th) / Indian Open (1^st)

Jeong Weon Ko:

RCG Sotogrande (7^th) / Indian Open (5^th)

Thorbjorn Olesen:

RCG Sotogrande (9^th) / Indian Open (6^th)

Alfred Dunhill Championship (Leopard Creek)

The tree-lined Leopard Creek has a back nine not dissimilar to RCG Sotogrande, becoming much more undulating and possessing frequent elevation changes down that closing stretch. With smartly bunkered fairways, similarly sized greens and home to the most demanding short-game challenge on tour, it can guide us toward this week’s winner.

Notable correlating form:

Adrian Meronk:

RCG Sotogrande (1^st) / Alfred Dunhill (2^nd)

Matti Schmid:

RCG Sotogrande (2^nd) / Alfred Dunhill (4^th)

Thorbjorn Olesen:

RCG Sotogrande (9^th) / Alfred Dunhill (2^nd)

Adrian Otaegui:

RCG Sotogrande (9^th) / Alfred Dunhill (2^nd)

KLM/Dutch Open 2021-2023 (Bernardus Golf)

Bernardus Golf is an exposed, linksy layout in comparison to this week’s tree-lined parkland setup. That being said, it has very generous fairways and containing one of the most difficult short-game tests on the DPWT in recent years, we see why there was plenty of crossover form between these two courses last year.

Notable correlating form:

Adrian Meronk:

RCG Sotogrande (1^st) / Bernardus (3^rd, 5^th)

Matti Schmid:

RCG Sotogrande (2^nd) / Bernardus (2^nd)

Richard Mansell:

RCG Sotogrande (3^rd) / Bernardus (6^th, 9^th)

Victor Perez:

RCG Sotogrande (9^th) / Bernardus (1^st)

Adrian Otaegui:

RCG Sotogrande (9^th) / Bernardus (2^nd)  

Andalucia Masters 2010-2022 (Valderrama)

Finally, I’m going to include Valderrama. This fellow Trent Jones design and former host of this event is a similarly rolling tree-lined course, packed with elevation changes and challenging, raised greens.

THE FIELD

Jon Rahm is back in DPWT action and is the top-ranked player in the field at #14. There is just one other player from inside the top 50, #48 Thristron Lawrence and a further 12 from the top 100. This includes both Hojgaard twins and Spaniard, David Puig, who has finished 3^rd and 4^th on his last two DPWT starts.

Last year’s champion, Adrian Meronk is absent this year. This leaves us with just one former winner in attendance, Adrian Otaegui – winner of the last renewal of the event at Valderrama in 2022.

However, we do have three players here who have tasted victory at RCG Sotogrande in the Copa Sotogrande: Todd Clements (2018), Adrien Saddier (2013) and Marcel Siem (1999).

Andalucia Masters Odds

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SELECTIONS

Market leaders: Jon Rahm 14/5, Rasmus Hojgaard 16/1, Thorbjorn Olesen 20/1, David Puig 22/1, Niklas Norgaard 22/1, Thriston Lawrence 22/1, Matt Wallace 22/1

Jon Rahm is obviously the man to beat but I still feel he looks well worth taking on at the prices. The top of the market is reasonably deep, and you could make a case for most of them, but it’s 9^th-place finisher last year, Victor Perez who represents the best value and he goes in as the headline selection.

1.75 pts Victor Perez each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 28/1 

Perez has enjoyed a positive rookie season on the PGA Tour, recording top-5 finishes in the Canadian and Puerto Rico Opens, as well as finishing 4^th in the Olympics back home in France. These results have all but secured his place on the tour for next season, which has allowed him to tee it up on the DPWT in recent weeks, both to meet the criteria for Ryder Cup consideration and potentially make it into the season-ending events.

Though he hasn’t missed a cut in his three starts on the tour over recent weeks, he hasn’t quite managed to threaten the top of the leaderboard either. This is his final chance and after finishing 9^th here last year, he’ll fancy his chances of a strong week.

The Frenchman has done everything well this year and ranks 5^th in this field in strokes-gained total over his last 50 rounds. His approach play has been especially encouraging, ranking 9^th of this week’s contenders in 2024.

Perez hit the ball well and took to these greens immediately when finishing 9^th last year. His win in the 2022 Dutch Open looks like a strong piece of correlating form based on last year’s results and can help him to become a four-time DPWT winner this week.

1.5 pts Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 35/1 

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen continues to impress with his superb ball-striking. Possessing some promising form at RCG Sotogrande from his amateur days, he makes it into my selections for a third straight event.

Following three victories on the Challenge Tour, Neergaard-Petersen has taken his automatic upgrade to the DPWT as well as anticipated. After missing the cut on his first start as a full member of the tour in the Irish Open four starts ago, he hasn’t finished outside the top 20 in the last three weeks, finishing 13^th in the Open de Espana, 4^th in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and 18^th in the Open de France last week.

He's been the second-best tee-to-green player in this field over those most recent starts and particularly excels with his ball-striking, ranking 10^th in approach and 18^th off-the-tee. As has been highlighted previously, he is in ownership of a highly-coveted combination of power and accuracy with the driver, making him a danger at just about any course.

Neergaard-Petersen finished 2^nd here in the 2018 Copa Sotogrande and on his only attempt at any of the comp courses mentioned, he was 13^th in the Open de Espana. He looks a player destined to rise to the very top of the game, and I have no doubt he’s capable of taking down a field such as this despite his relative infancy on tour.

1.25 pts Nicolai Hojgaard each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 40/1

Nicolai Hojgaard has started to find a little more accuracy with the driver in recent starts and finally ended a poor spell with the putter last week in France. Combine this with his constantly strong approach play and he looks excellent value at what looks a suitable course.

Hojgaard’s rookie season on the PGA Tour has been a strange one. He’s only recorded two top 20s, though such was the standard of those results, as he finished 2^nd in the Farmers Insurance Open and 16^th on his debut in The Masters, he’s all but sewn up his card for next season.

He finished 7^th in the Olympics two starts prior to heading back to Europe to compete on the DPWT. A 14^th-place finish in the Danish Golf Challenge kicked off a sequence of seven starts, but he then missed three of his next five cuts before recording another top 20 when 18^th in the Open de France last week.

The Dane has been superb in approach and this area of his game has especially shone over the last three months, ranking 4^th in this field. The driver hasn’t been quite the weapon as in previous seasons, though he has started to find a few more fairways in lately and should appreciate the very generous landing areas in Spain.

Hojgaard finished 12^th here as a 17-year-old in the 2018 Copa Sotogrande. His power-packed ball-striking game can take him to a strong showing on his professional debut at the course this week.

1 pt Daniel Hillier each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 90/1

Daniel Hillier has been driving the ball well all season and with signs over the last few events that his approach play is starting to catch up, he looks a big price to improve on his 19^th-place finish at RCG Sotogrande last year.

Hillier is enjoying one of his most consistent periods of form of the year, making seven of his last eight cuts and recording three top-25 finishes. The first of these came courtesy of an 19^th-place finish in The Open, and he’s followed with finishes of 18^th in the BMW PGA Championship and 25^th in the Dunhill Links across his last three starts.

He’s been driving it well all season, ranking 30^th off-the-tee and he’s a lengthy 22^nd in driving distance. His greens-in-regulation numbers have also been strong, ranking 23^rd, though he’d been struggling with precision. However, he’s been much more improved over his last three starts, ranking 18^th in this field in approach and with the putter also looking better than at any other point this year, he looks like a player close to a big performance.

Hillier was right in the mix here in 2023, sitting in 4^th place at the halfway point. A third-round 75 did for his chances but he responded well with a 69 in round four to finish 19^th. Finishes of 5^th in the KLM Open and 9^th in the Open de Espana last year strengthen his case.

1 pt Marcus Armitage each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 175/1

Marcus Armitage has been hitting his irons strongly all season and has started to get the driver under control recently. This can help him improve on his impressive 13^th-place finish here last year.

Armitage has struggled for much of this year, with a 4^th-place finish in the SDC Championship a standout effort amongst a sea of missed cuts. He has found some consistency over his latest starts, making three of his last four cuts, which includes top-20 finishes of 10^th in the BMW PGA Championship and 17^th in the Irish Open.

He’s been good in approach all season, ranking 28^th, though he’d largely struggled with the driver. However, he’s been better in the last couple of months, gaining strokes in three of his last five starts, something I’m counting on him continuing this week.

Armitage produced a superb tee-to-green performance here last year, ranking 2^nd, which helped him to that 13^th-place finish. This was his second top 25 in a row in the event after finishing 21^st at Valderrama in 2022, and with a 6^th-place finish at Leopard Creek also boding well, he looks well worth chancing at a huge price in the Andalucia Masters.

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