Alfred Dunhill Links Championship 2024 Tips: Oosty to win again at St Andrews

Following Angel Hidalgo’s emotional victory in last week’s Open de Espana, where he bravely beat compatriot and Spain’s modern-day standard-bearer, Jon Rahm in a playoff, the DP World Tour now heads back to Scotland for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

As always, here are Jamie Worsley's Alfred Dunhill Links Championship 2024 Tips, featuring six picks ranging from 35/1 to 250/1...

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is a pro-am event that made its debut on the DP World Tour in 2001.

The tournament sees every golfer and their amateur partner – which includes famous names from the worlds of sport and entertainment – rotate around three renowned links courses on the East Coast of Scotland: the Old Course at St Andrews, Carnoustie and Kingsbarns.

After each pairing has played every course once from Thursday-Saturday, the top players and teams then return for one final round at St Andrews, to decide who takes home the individual and team titles.

Scotland’s Paul Lawrie won the first renewal in 2001, beating Ernie Els by one stroke. Padraig Harrington succeeded him the following year, and after regaining the championship in 2006, he became the first player to win on more than one occasion. Tyrrell Hatton is the only other player to achieve this feat, having recorded back-to-back victories in 2016 and 2017.

Last five winners:

• 2023 – Winner: Matt Fitzpatrick (-19): runners-up: Ryan Fox, Marcus Armitage, Matthew Southgate (-16)
• 2022 – Winner: Ryan Fox (-15); runners-up: Alex Noren, Callum Shinkwin (-14)
• 2021 – Winner: Danny Willett (-18); runners-up: Tyrrell Hatton, Joakim Lagergren (-16)
• 2019 – Winner: Victor Perez (-22); runner-up: Matthew Southgate (-21)
• 2018 – Winner: Lucas Bjerregaard (-15); runners-up: Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton (-14)

The 2023 edition of the event was reduced to 54 holes due to bad weather and saw Matt Fitzpatrick collect a ninth DP World Tour title. Fitzpatrick is back to defend and will have to overcome an excellent field to become just the third player to win multiple Alfred Dunhill Links Championships.

THE COURSES

Each of the first nine editions of the event were held at St Andrews alone, before the multi-course format was introduced in 2010. There, Carnoustie and Kingsbarns joined the party, and the event has remained with the same three courses since.

The courses won’t be set up to be as severely challenging as they could be, due to the pro-am nature of the event and large field. Though as with all links courses, if the weather plays its part, things can get very tricky.

Old Course at St Andrews - 7318-yard par 72

14x par 4s (348-495 yards) / 2x par 5s (568-618 yards) / 2x par 3s (174-188 yards)

The “Home of Golf” is one of the most iconic venues on the planet – having hosted 30 Open Championships - and indeed one of the oldest, with it’s origins traced back as far as the 1500s. Many people have been credited with shaping the course we have today, but it’s Old Tom Morris’ work in the 1800s that is often labelled as the most important.

The course has incredibly wide and undulating fairways and is famed for its huge sloping green complexes, with pot bunkers and penal gorse abound throughout.

It can be treacherous if windy and firm but is there to be got at in benign conditions, as we saw when Cameron Smith shot -20 to win the 2022 Open Championship here.

Carnoustie Golf Links – 7394-yard par 72

12x par 4s (348-499 yards) / 3x par 5s (504-579 yards) / 3x par 3s (174-249 yards)

Carnoustie is another course that can trace its roots back to the 1500s. This eight-time Open Championship host has been worked on by many of the same people who had a hand in developing the Old Course, including Old Tom Morris in 1857.

It is the most challenging of these three courses, featuring many narrow fairways and undulating green complexes. While the greens are still large, they are the smallest on display this week.

It is also littered with penalty due to the burn that winds its way around the course, along with various out-of-bounds areas, lots of gorse and 110+ bunkers, many of which are punishingly deep.

As mentioned, course conditions here won’t be as challenging as they are for an Open Championship, but it is still a demanding test and one from which it’s generally important to escape unscathed.

Kingsbarns Golf Links – 7227-yards par 72

10x par 4s (338-481 yards) / 4x par 5s (520-606 yards) / 4x par 3s (148-212 yards)

Kingsbarns is a modern links course designed by Kyle Phillips in 2000. Though not enjoying the illustrious past of the other two venues, it doesn’t look out of place among the older, more naturally sculpted courses in the area.

Its generous fairways and large greens are well bunkered, but the course is still scoreable. It is the only one of the four to have four par 5s, and it also has the drivable par 4 6^th among many other shorter par 4s that can be attacked with a drive and a wedge.

We can witness some very low scores here if the weather allows for it. If a player is lucky enough to tee it up here on one of the kinder days, they’ll need to take advantage.

THE WEATHER

The current forecast for the week doesn’t look too challenging as yet but it’s always sensible to expect some adverse weather in the area.

Temperatures will be cool, and it is predicted to be largely dry, barring the potential for showers in the third round.

Though winds could gust at up to 22mph, they don’t appear too long-lasting and the mild breeze that is generally forecast shouldn’t cause too many problems.

KEY STATS

• Birdie Average
• SG: Putting
• SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
• SG: Approach

Stats for the DP World Tour can be unreliable at the best of times and even more so for an event such as this, with many moving parts. Therefore, I’m not going to delve into data from past renewals.

With the lack of challenging weather in the forecast, scoring should be decent, and players will need to be in birdie-making mode. This will call for a hot putter on the large and sloping greens across the three courses.

St Andrews - and its extremely generous fairways - is a course that has always suited quality drivers of the ball who have no shortage of power. The same can be said about Kingsbarns and though Carnoustie’s fairways are harder to hit, the more forgiving rough aside the fairways this week should still suit the bigger hitters.

Additionally, the lack of wind will also benefit the stronger iron players, who will need to be at their most precise to avoid leaving lengthy birdie chances on these large greens.

CORRELATING EVENTS

There’s no experience quite like links golf and despite the more sympathetic nature of the courses this week, there’s no better place to start than at The Open Championship.

We can also look towards several events on the DP World Tour, such as the Scottish Open, not just at its current host of the Renaissance Club but the event has been played on links courses – modern or otherwise – since 2011.

Further to that, the 2024, 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2015 editions of the Irish Open were all played on links courses; the 2022 Cazoo Classic and 2019 British Masters at Hillside are also worth a look; and though very much a links-like course rather than a traditional links, Fairmont St Andrews’ Torrance Course – host of the 2020 Scottish Championship and 2021/2022 Hero Opens – is another one to consider.

Away from the UK & Ireland and there are many courses across the rest of the world that could correlate.

Links performers often perform well in the Middle East due to the predominantly sandy, firm and exposed courses out there. The Qatar Masters at Doha Golf Club stands out in particular – an event in which many Open Championship winners/contenders have gone well – and I’d also check out the Abu Dhabi Championship at Yas Links.

Bernardus Golf hosted the Dutch/KLM Open from 2021-2023 and is a links-like course designed by Kyle Phillips; the Portugal Masters at Dom Pedro Victoria has often been a haven for lengthy links-lovers; the SDC Championship at St Francis Links in South Africa can provide us with further clues.

Lastly, the 2023 Mauritius Open, which took place at the spectacularly linksy Louis Oosthuizen-designed La Reserve Golf Links, featured many proven links players near the top of the leaderboard.

THE FIELD

The Dunhill Links has attracted an exciting field for this year’s edition, with several more players from LIV teeing it up after the completion of their season two weeks ago.

Rory McIlroy is the top-ranked player in the field at #3 in the world and he is one of 11 from inside the top-50, which also includes Tommy Fleetwood (#11), Jon Rahm (#13), Billy Horschel (#17) and our defending champion, Matt Fitzpatrick (#29).

Fitzpatrick is one of nine former winners in attendance, joined by Danny Willett (2021), Tyrrell Hatton (2017, 2016), Thorbjorn Olesen (2015), Oliver Wilson (2014), David Howell (2013), Branden Grace (2012), Padraig Harrington (2006, 2002) and Stephen Gallacher (2004).

Brooks Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Reed and Dean Burmester are others among that group of players from LIV; whilst among the tournament invites are the PGA Tour’s Andrew Putnam, the leading player on South Africa’s Sunshine Tour this year, Yurav Premlall and Wales’ James Ashfield – the current #26 amateur in the world and somewhat of a links specialist.

Alfred Dunhill Links Championship Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Alfred Dunhill Links Championship market on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this tournament.

SELECTIONS

Market leaders: Jon Rahm 6/1, Rory McIlroy 6/1, Tyrrell Hatton 10/1, Tommy Fleetwood 12/1, Brooks Koepka 18/1, Shane Lowry 20/1, Billy Horschel 22/1

The pro-am element of this event makes for a more relaxed atmosphere among many of the players. Along with the vagaries of links golf and indeed this format – in which players can get unlucky by being drawn at the wrong course on the wrong day – this is partly responsible for us seeing many big-priced winners over the years.

Even with the class at the top of the betting, these aspects of the tournament cause me to swerve those main market leaders and I’m going to start just behind them with former Old Course conqueror, Louis Oosthuizen.

1.5 pts Louis Oosthuizen each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 35/1 

Oosthuizen is still winless on LIV since joining the breakaway circuit in 2022; however, we did see him pick up his first victories since 2019 at the end of last year on the DP World Tour, winning the Alfred Dunhill Championship and Mauritius Open in consecutive weeks.

He had a good start to 2024, finishing 2^nd on three occasions in his first seven starts and he performed solidly at the end of the LIV season, finishing inside the top-8 in three of the last four events.

The South African appears to have been hitting the ball well enough this year and when combined with him ranking 2^nd on the greens on LIV, he’s been able to make plenty of birdies, ranking 9^th.

Oosthuizen won The Open Championship at St Andrews in 2010 and returned to finish 2^nd in 2015. He has transferred that affinity with the Old Course to this event, recording finishes of 5^th in 2011, 6^th in 2014 and 10^th in 2022, and with that win in Mauritius in 2023 showing what he can still do on links-like setups, I’m taking him to go well this week.

He's produced quality in all areas of late, ranking 6^th around-the-greens, 15^th in putting, 19^th in approach and 22^nd off-the-tee in this field across his last 50 rounds. As a good scrambler who generally scores well on the par 4s, he looks a good fit for this test.

Wallace hasn’t played here before but adding that recent win at Crans to his 2018 win in India, he has victories at two of the comp courses mentioned and can put those experiences to use in Madrid.

1 pt Dean Burmester each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 50/1 

After a strong start to the year, where he won his first LIV title in Miami, Dean Burmester’s form has cooled off somewhat over recent weeks. That being said, his best performance since May did come at The Open Championship in July, finishing 19^th and with other positive links efforts to his name, this big-hitter looks the right type for this week’s test.

Similarly to Oosthuizen, Burmester enjoyed great success at the end of last year at home in South Africa, winning the Joburg and South African Opens back-to-back. Aside from that win in Miami, he put up two 3^rd-place finishes at the start of the 2024 LIV season and also shone in the PGA Championship, finishing 12^th.

He looked in good shape from tee-to-green through his major appearances this year, ranking 8^th in the PGA Championship and 13^th in The Open. He looks to have been driving it well for most of the year and though his power comes at the expense of some accuracy, that won’t be too damaging here.

Burmester made his Dunhill Links debut in 2016, missing the cut and his following two efforts followed a similar path. He made the final day for the first time in 2019, finishing 34^th and improved again in 2021, finishing 7^th. He’s twice finished inside the top-10 in the Scottish Open and with his best ever major result coming in the 2022 Open Championship at the Old Course, finishing 11^th, there’s much to like about his chances here.

1 pt Thorbjorn Olesen each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 80/1

Thorbjorn Olesen won this event all the way back in 2015 and despite not playing especially well here since, he looks a big price to contend. With plenty of positives to be found in recent performances.

Olesen began the season well, winning the Ras Al Khaimah Championship on his third start before heading off to the PGA Tour. He found the going a little tough out in the U.S, but he has shown more promise over his last 10 starts – which have come across both the PGA Tour and DPWT – missing just two cuts and recording two top-20s, when 14^th in the Olympics and 12^th in the Irish Open just two starts ago.

He's been doing most things well over those most recent appearances but has failed to really put everything together on the same week. Having said that, as the fourth-best putter on the DPWT this year, as well as ranking top-15 in birdie average and 24^th in approach over his last 20 starts, he has some eye-catching stats for this challenge.

Olesen finished 2^nd on just his second start in this event in 2012, before recording that win in 2015. I’m not too concerned about his form since, as it’s a tournament that can produce inconsistent results. As a player who continues to perform well in Qatar – adding a finish of 9^th last year to finishes of 2^nd in 2016 and 3^rd in 2014 – he has some recent comp form that suggests he still has what it takes to contend here.

Nakajima’s win in India provides us with plenty of encouragement in his ability to perform well at Club de Campo on debut. We find further evidence of his liking for these tree-lined tests from his 12^th-place finish in the ZOZO Championship on the PGA Tour. That should come as no surprise, as these parkland courses dominate the golfing landscape in Japan, and he can again prove his comfort with this type of examination this week.

1 pt Nicolai Hojgaard each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 80/1

Nicolai Hojgaard’s last three performances leave a lot to be desired. Though as the type of aggressive, power-packed player that often goes well here, he can rely on his positive links record to return to form at what looks a big price this week.

Similarly to Olesen, Hojgaard has largely struggled on the PGA Tour this season, but he has had a couple of standout performances that should secure his place on the tour next season. He finished 2^nd in the Farmers Insurance Open at the start of the year and was then 16^th in The Masters on debut.

A 7^th-place finish six starts ago in the Olympics also caught the eye and he returned to DPWT action four starts ago in the Danish Golf Championship, finishing 14^th. However, he missed the cut in the European Masters and Irish Open, before finishing 65^th in the BMW PGA Championship in his last three starts, and he’ll need to bounce back in Scotland.

The Dane has been hitting his irons well for most of this season, ranking 13^th in this field in approach. He has regressed with the driver this year, though that has largely been due to inaccuracy, therefore he should relish the wide fairways across most of these course. Though the putter has also been an issue, he did putt the greens well at the Old Course in 2022.

Hojgaard has played in this event three times, with his 14^th-place finish in 2021 accompanied by two missed cuts. Meanwhile, he’s made three of four cuts in the Open and two of three in the Scottish Open, including a 6^th-place finish last year. With a runner-up finish in the 2021 Portugal Masters also correlating nicely, he was hard to ignore at this week’s price.

0.75 pts Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 100/1

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen fast-tracked his way to the DPWT by winning three times on the Challenge Tour this year. Having finished 22^nd on his debut in this event in 2023, this immensely talented driver could surprise many this week.

Neergaard-Petersen turned pro last year, and we immediately saw his potential at this level, as he finished 7^th in the BMW International Open on his first pro start on the tour.

Barring the odd start on the DPWT, he’s spent most of 2024 on the Challenge Tour and has racked up three victories, winning the Kolkatta Challenge and Abu Challenge at the start of the year, before claiming the Big Green Egg German Challenge to achieve that instant promotion. He’s played twice since then, hitting his irons well but missing the cut in the Irish Open but he responded well last week, finishing 13^th in Spain.

He possesses quality across his game and has played well in approach and putting during his limited time on the DPWT this year, but it’s with the driver he excels. He’s not only long but incredibly accurate, ranking 3^rd off-the-tee when finishing 19^th in the Danish Golf Challenge and he was 12^th with driver last week.

Neergaard-Petersen fired a round of 65 at Kingsbarns on his way to that 22^nd-place finish in this event last year. His record in the Middle East on the Challenge Tour this year, where he won the UAE Challenge and finished 7^th in the Abu Dhabi Challenge, supplies me with some additional confidence and if he gets into stride with his driver, expect him to feature prominently in Scotland.

0.5 pts Jeff Winther each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 250/1

A quartet of Danes is finalised with Jeff Winther. He’s found some form in recent weeks, which has largely been engineered by his approach play and having twice finished inside the top-20 in four visits here, he can give us a run at a huge price.

Winther had a positive start to the season, but he entered the Danish Golf Championship five starts ago having missed six of his previous eight cuts and failing to record a finish in the top-50. He finished 27^th there and followed with efforts of 33^rd in the British Masters and 17^th in the European Masters, before bouncing back from a missed cut in the Irish Open to finish 18^th at Wentworth.

He's historically been a good putter and he’s excelling in this area again in 2024, ranking 15^th on the DPWT. Although, it’s not the putter that has engineered those recent results, it’s his approach play, for which he ranks 10^th in this field across that period.

The combination of his quality in approach and on the greens should enable Winther to score heavily this week. Which will help him improve an already strong record in this event, at which he finished 14^th in 2021 and recorded a best of 10^th last year.

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