Abu Dhabi Championship 2024 Tips: Rasmus to beat the lot at Yas Links

The DP World Tour returns to action this week, with the start of the season-ending Play-Offs in the United Arab Emirates. The Abu Dhabi Championship at Yas Links is first up after almost two years away, with the top 50 after the completion of this week’s event making it into next week’s DP World Tour Championship at Jumeirah Estates.

As always, here is Jamie Worsley's  comprehensive preview and Abu Dhabi Championship 2024 Tips, featuring four selections ranging from 20/1 all the way out to 125/1...

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The Abu Dhabi Championship debuted in 2006 and has taken place every year since, with each edition prior to 2022 taking place at Abu Dhabi Golf Club. Yas Links took over hosting duties that year and the event has been shifted from its usual early season slot to this important position as the first event of the Play-Offs.

America’s Chris DiMarco won that inaugural edition and was succeeded by Paul Casey – one of only three players to win multiple Abu Dhabi Championships. Casey and Tommy Fleetwood have each won the event twice, with Martin Kaymer leading the way on three victories, which came in 2008, 2010 and 2011.

Last five winners:

• 2023 – Winner: Victor Perez (-18); runners-up: Min Woo Lee, Sebastian Soderberg (-17)
• 2022 – Winner: Thomas Pieters (-10); runners-up: Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Shubhankar Sharma (-9)
• 2021 – Winner: Tyrrell Hatton (-18); runner-up: Jason Scrivener (-14)
• 2020 – Winner: Lee Westwood (-19); runners-up: Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Victor Perez (-17)
• 2019 – Winner: Shane Lowry (-18); runner-up: Richard Sterne (-17)

Victor Perez won the latest renewal of the event all the way back in January 2023. Unfortunately, the Frenchman hasn’t qualified to defend his title this week.

THE COURSE

Yas Links opened in 2010 and was designed by American architect Kyle Phillips. He took an unremarkable strip of land on the west shore of Yas Island, and manufactured a spectacular and dramatic faux links that has quickly established itself as one of the highest-rated courses in the area.

This par 72 measures 7425 yards and possesses 10x par 4s (359-486 yards), 4x par 5s (534-646 yards) and 4x par 3s (154-212 yards).

As we saw in the first edition of the event here in 2022, it can prove a real challenge if the wind blows, with Thomas Pieters finishing the week as the only player on double digits under par. However, with less wind on show in 2023, the course was much less daunting and there are opportunities to be had if the weather doesn’t make things too difficult.

This exposed, paspalum-covered layout features undulating and generous fairways which have proved easy to hit in each visit here so far. That being said, large, deep and strategic bunkers offer protection, as does water (in-play on nine holes in total) and the native areas are filled with cacti, shrubs and local grasses, all bringing in the potential of big numbers.

The heavily sloped greens are huge and firm and possess many tough-to-access pin positions. With many open-fronted, they encourage play along the ground – one of the staples of true links golf. Their surrounds are very undulating, with hollows and swales gathering up errant shots from the countless run-off areas and large, rugged bunkering intimidatingly guards most.

Due to their size, the putting surfaces are naturally easy to find but they pose one of the most severe short game tests on the DP World Tour. They rank 1^st in putting difficulty and are the fourth-hardest to scramble around.

The course features memorable holes throughout but it steps up a gear on the back nine. Holes 13-18 are especially exciting, over which five are played adjacent the water, including the final three.

The 16^th kicks off this finishing trio. This 424-yard par 4 doglegs from right-to-left and though the players will fancy their chances of finding the generous fairway, they must avoid the large bunker bang in the middle. Water runs along the left-hand side of the entire hole, offering added protection to a well-bunkered and narrow green.

The players then move on to the 204-yard par 3 17^th. This is the third of the four par 3s to have water in-play, protecting the large putting surface left, short and long. Whilst five large and deep bunkers add to the anxiety.

Though closing out with a par 5, it can hardly be considered a true birdie chance, measuring in at 646 yards. The fairway may be extremely generous, but it is again protected by sand to the centre and water hugs the left-hand side of the hole from start to finish.

There is no short supply of drama throughout the course, but especially those closing holes. The players will be hoping for some forgiving weather to make this formidable course that bit less intimidating.

THE WEATHER

Fortunately for the field, the conditions look much more like the easier-scoring 2023 edition than the difficult 2022 tournament. Wind should be mild over the course of the week, generally failing to reach 10mph, though they must watch out for some stronger gusts at closer to 20mph.

In addition, there is no sign of any rain, with hot, dry and sunny weather predicted each day. Ordinarily, you’d worry about this drying the course out and making it super-fast, though paspalum is often noted for its “stickiness” and slower speeds compared to other surfaces.

KEY STATS

• SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance

The driver has cropped up as an important asset in each of the two editions here so far, with Victor Perez ranking 15^th off-the-tee when winning in 2023 and Thomas Pieters 5^th in this area when claiming the title in 2022.

It’s also worth noting that in the better scoring conditions last year, length with the driver proved to be a greater advantage. Each of the top 4 ranked inside the top 10 in driving distance there, which includes winner Perez ranking 4^th. This makes sense due to the generous fairways and with similar conditions on the way, this could again be a key to scoring well.

• SG: Approach/Greens-in-Regulation

The importance of iron play has been a mixed bag at Yas Links but any course at which you’re dealing with such large putting surfaces, precision approach has to be a major asset.

Whilst Perez didn’t excel in this area in 2023, two of his closest challengers struck these clubs well, with 4^th-place finisher Padraig Harrington ranking 2^nd in approach and runner-up, Min Woo Lee ranking 8^th.

Further to that, four of the top 5 in 2022 ranked top 25 in approach and that same four ranked top 20 in greens-in-regulation.

• SG: Putting (paspalum)/Three-Putt Avoidance

Lastly, with these very demanding greens, you’re going to have to putt well, and it may be especially vital (and challenging) to avoid three-putting.

Victor Perez was 5^th on the greens last year, with runner-up, Sebastian Soderberg ranking 2^nd. Although Thomas Pieters excelled in other areas, his two nearest contenders were the best putters in the field, with runners-up, Shubhankar Sharma and Rafa Cabrera-Bello ranking 1^st and 2^nd respectively.

CORRELATING EVENTS

Kyle Phillips has designed several other courses that are/have been seen in action on the DP World Tour. Perhaps the most famous of these is Kingsbarns, which is one of the three courses used in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. Staying in Scotland and Phillips also designed the 2017 Scottish Open host, Dundonald Links, an event won by 2022 Abu Dhabi Championship runner-up, Rafa Cabrera-Bello.

Two additional courses that have been used by the DPWT very recently are the links-like host of the KLM/Dutch Open from 2021-2023, Bernardus Golf and this year’s new Czech Masters host, PGA National OAKS Prague.

Onto the Middle East and many courses in this area should correlate due to their exposed, linksy nature and usage of paspalum. The Bahrain Championship at Royal Golf Club looks an especially good shout as a course with these characteristics, as well as possessing wide fairways and large greens. Three other events to consider are the Qatar Masters at Doha Golf Club, the Ras Al Khaimah Championship at Al Hamra Golf Club and the Oman Open at Al Mouj Golf Club.

Lastly, I do think the current host of the Scottish Open, The Renaissance Club should be a good fit, due to its large and dramatically undulating green complexes. Whilst the Portugal Masters at Dom Pedro Victoria Course was always an event that correlated nicely with these more exposed Middle Eastern courses.

THE FIELD

The top 70 in the Race to Dubai all qualified to play this week, though due to six high profile absentees (Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, Billy Horschel, Aaron Rai, Matthieu Pavon, Zander Lombard), the field actually stretches down to 76^th position in those standings, with Sean Crocker the lucky last man in.

Nevertheless, this is a good field, which includes nine of the world’s top 50, led by #3 Rory McIlroy.

Two-time Abu Dhabi winner, Tommy Fleetwood is the only other member of the world’s top 10 and one of three former winners, joined by Tyrrell Hatton (2021) and Shane Lowry (2019).

With the top 50 in the Race to Dubai heading to the Tour Championship next week, attention will be on players hovering around that spot in the rankings. Paul Waring (48), Connor Syme (49) and Andy Sullivan (50) will all nervously be looking over their shoulder; meanwhile, Keita Nakajima (51), Bernd Wiesberger (52) and Calum Hill (53) will each be hoping to take their positions and make it into next week’s season finale.

Abu Dhabi Championship Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Abu Dhabi Championship market on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this tournament.

Market leaders (1/4 5 places): Rory McIlroy 9/2, Tyrrell Hatton 13/2, Tommy Fleetwood 8/1, Joaquin Niemann 10/1, Shane Lowry 14/1, Adam Scott 18/1

Due to the two-year absence and having only hosted two previous editions of this event, the quirky Yas Links is still somewhat of an unfamiliar venue and is liable to find out some of the more fancied players. For instance Tommy Fleetwood stood out for many reasons this week but he has failed to make a real impact on his previous two visits, which was enough for me to avoid him at the price.

That being said, the standard of the field will still make it difficult for an outsider to win and I feel the need to have a strong hand from the top of the betting. I’m going to begin just outside those very top market leaders with a youthful duo who have played the best golf of their careers in 2024, with Rasmus Hojgaard up first.

2.5 pts Rasmus Hojgaard each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 20/1 

Rasmus started the year in fine form out in the Middle East, finishing no worse than 11^th across his first five starts and recorded a runner-up finish in the Ras Al Khaimah Championship. His form suffered a touch following this, as he mixed his time between the DPWT and PGA Tour, but he’s been incredibly consistent since returning and sticking to the DPWT.

He’s missed just one cut across his last 12 starts, with eight top-25 finishes, four of which have resulted in top 5s. Undoubtedly his strongest performance came in the Irish Open at Royal County Down, as he rattled home with a final-round 65 to surpass Rory McIlroy by one stroke and claim his fifth DPWT victory.

His early season form was largely due to his short game but as the season has gone on, he’s developed into one of the strongest iron players around, ranking 1^st alongside Tommy Fleetwood in approach in this field over the last six months. His length off the tee – ranking 12^th in driving distance – should be an asset around here and as the 12^th-best putter, he is well equipped to handle these tricky greens.

The Dane finished 20^th here on debut in 2022 when he was in nowhere near the same form as he’s currently in with his irons. He often goes well in this part of the world, finishing 2^nd in the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, and top 10 in Bahrain, Qatar and Oman; often ranking among the strongest putters on the paspalum surfaces there. Whilst he also finished 3^rd at the Kyle Phillips-designed Bernardus Golf in last season’s KLM Open.

It says a lot about Hojgaard’s mentality that after agonisingly falling just short of claiming his PGA Tour card last year, he responds by producing the best and most consistent golf of his career the following year. Ranking 3^rd in the Race to Dubai, he’s locked up that card for next year and with little pressure on him, he can win his second title of the season in Abu Dhabi.

2 pts Robert MacIntyre each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 22/1 

Robert MacIntyre took one of those 10 PGA Tour cards last season and boy has he grasped the opportunity. He’s continued to look good since returning to the DPWT and should be among the main contenders on a course that is a good fit.

After initially struggling to get going at the start of his rookie season, MacIntyre burst into life at the PGA Championship, finishing 8^th. Just two starts following that he became a PGA Tour winner, taking home the Canadian Open and a little over a month later he produced an inspired display to become the first home player in 25 years to win the Scottish Open. This level of form took him to East Lake and the Tour Championship at the first time of asking and a career-high of #15 in the world rankings.

He’s made limited starts over the last two months, with each of them coming on the DPWT. He looked in good shape every time, finishing 5^th in the Irish Open, 12^th in the BMW PGA Championship and 25^th in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

There are few players in this field who have been as good across all areas of their game as him this year. He ranks 5^th in strokes-gained total over the last six months, and is top 25 in each respective area, particularly excelling on the greens, ranking 1^st.

MacIntyre missed the cut here on debut in 2022 but returned to put up a much improved 20^th-place finish in 2023. His superb record at The Renaissance Club in the Scottish Open bodes well, as do top 10s in Qatar and Ras Al Khaimah, where he’s typically putted those paspalum surfaces soundly.

1 pt Jesper Svensson each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 80/1

Jesper Svensson’s superb rookie season on the DPWT looks a good bet to result in an instant upgrade to the PGA Tour, ranking 8^th on the Race to Dubai and currently 5^th in that race for a tour card. This is the type of course on which he’s done most of his best work this season and with some positive signs to be found in his approach play two starts ago in France, he can give the market leaders something to think about this week.

Svensson has recorded five top-5 finishes on the tour this season. The first of these came in the South African Open at the end of last year, where he finished 2^nd, and he repeated that finish on his third start of 2024 in Bahrain. He then went one better than these finishes to claim his breakthrough win on the tour in Singapore, where he shot a brilliant final-round 63 to enter into a playoff with Kiradech Aphibarnrat, before dispatching of his Thai counterpart.

His form has been a little in-and-out since, but he did record a third 2^nd-place finish of the season in the Czech Masters (on another course designed by Phillips) seven starts ago and followed that with that fifth top 5 when he finished 5^th in the British Masters.

He’s all about the driver and putter, ranking 10^th off-the-tee and 11^th in putting in this field across the last six months. His power is a major weapon, ranking 7^th in driving distance and he should relish the more generous fairways this week. Whilst his approach play has looked like somewhat of a weakness, he did produce his second-best performance of the season in this area two starts ago in France, and I’m hoping he can recapture that form this week.

Svensson will be making his debut at Yas Links but those runner-up finishes in Bahrain and Czechia suggest he should like what he finds in Abu Dhabi.

1 pt Daniel Brown each way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 125/1

I’m going to finish with England’s Dan Brown. The majority of his better performances this season have come on links/links-like courses and having finally found something in approach on his latest start, he can give us a good run at a big price in the Middle East.

Brown has recorded five top-5 finishes on tour this season and something catches your eye about four of those courses: each of them is an exposed links/links-like layout. His first one came when 3^rd at La Reserve Golf Course – an exposed, dramatic faux links – at the end of last year in the Mauritius Open and he then finished 4^th at St Francis Links in March of this year in the SDC Championship. He hit a rough patch of form following that but burst back into life in The Open Championship, finishing 10^th and he has hit the top 5 on a further two occasions across his last five starts, finishing 4^th in the Irish Open and 3^rd last time out in the Andalucia Masters.

The driver has been his key asset this season, ranking 37^th off-the-tee and though he’s been inconsistent in approach, there have been plenty of positives. Indeed, he ranked 5^th in this area on his last start and gaining 1.43 strokes per round, it was his strongest performance of the season with the clubs. In addition, it’s also been a positive to see him firing on the greens in recent starts.

Brown makes his debut at Yas Links this week but those performances on similar setups imply that he has the skills to go well. Having held his own against some top players this year, especially in those top-10 finishes in The Open and Irish Open, he should have the confidence that he can contend with some of the bigger names this week.

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