3M Open 2024 Tips: Jamie’s six names to know this week

After a quite wonderful final round at The Open Championship on Sunday, it is back to the States for the vast majority of the top golfers in the world as Minneapolis hosts the PGA Tour event this week.

As always, our golf tipster Jamie Worsley is here and has put together his in-depth preview. In doing so, he has picked out six names to know as he takes us through his 3M Open 2024 Betting Tips...

That cliché of the floodgates opening once a talented golfer makes a breakthrough is an often overused one, but in the case of Xander Schauffele it looks to be bang on the money. As the American won his second major title of 2024 (and his career) at Royal Troon in a thrilling Open Championship last week.

It was an Open that had absolutely everything. We got the weather that is needed to turn these fabulous old courses into true links tests and it resulted in a leaderboard full of storylines.

From Englishman, Dan Brown staying in the mix throughout the entire week in his major debut, despite arriving in poor form, to Justin Rose rolling back the years in an attempt to become the first English winner since Sir Nick Faldo in 1992. Billy Horschel tried mightily to add one of few things missing from his C.V – a major championship - and long-time links lover, Thriston Lawrence exceeded the expectations of many with a top-5 finish.

However, Xander Schauffele was the class act from the top of the leaderboard and appearing in fine shape all week, he looked the one to beat on Sunday. Something he showed to be the case after a blistering 4-under-par back nine swept all other challengers to one side, as he soared to victory in Scotland.

It was a win that justified the support of this all-round talent down the years. He proved he had the class to win a major at Valhalla in the PGA Championship earlier in the year but this was on a completely different level; in the oldest event of them all on a famed, difficult course in testing conditions, that found out many of the world’s best players throughout the week.

Schauffele feels a certainty to be a fixture in these biggest events for the foreseeable and he’ll no doubt be one of the main contenders when they return at Augusta in April 2025.

With the men’s major season over, now begins the final stage of the PGA Tour season. We have just two events (excluding the Olympics) left on the calendar, in which players will be looking to position themselves appropriately heading into the FedExCup Playoffs. With the Wyndham Championship to come in two weeks, we first head to Minnesota for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The 3M Open debuted on the PGA Tour in 2019 and has been played at TPC Twin Cities in every edition. It followed the 3M Championship – a PGA Tour Champions event – that was played at this same course from 2001-2018.

Matthew Wolff won the inaugural edition in 2019, memorably eagling his final hole to beat future major champions, Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa by one shot.

Michael Thompson took the title in 2020 and we then saw the two most difficult renewals of the event to date, with Cameron Champ shooting -15 to win in 2021 and Tony Finau firing -17 for a three-shot win in 2022.

Previous 3M Open winners:

• 2023 – Winner: Lee Hodges (-24); runners-up: Martin Laird, JT Poston, Kevin Streelman (-17)
• 2022 – Winner: Tony Finau (-17); runners-up: Emiliano Grillo, Sungjae Im (-14)
• 2021 – Winner: Cameron Champ (-15); runners-up: Louis Oosthuizen, Charl Schwartzel, Jhonattan Vegas (-13)
• 2020 – Winner: Michael Thompson (-19); runner-up: Adam Long (-17)
• 2019 – Winner: Matthew Wolff (-21); runners-up: Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa (-20)

Tournament records were set in last year’s renewal, as Lee Hodges claimed the first PGA Tour victory of his career with an emphatic seven-shot win after firing a score of -24. He returns to defend this week and aims to become the first two-time winner of the event.

THE COURSE

TPC Twin Cities was designed by Arnold Palmer in 2000, with Tom Lehman acting as the player consultant on the project. Palmer’s design company then worked alongside Steve Wenzloff in 2018 to remodel the course, readying it for the PGA Tour.

Among the changes made, the previously ultra-generous fairways – which were an average of 50-60 yards wide – were tightened; tees and bunkers were repositioned; whilst mounds were expanded around the course to improve visibility for spectators.

TPC Twin Cities plays as a par 71 for the event and measures a lengthy 7431 yards. There are 11x par 4s (379-502 yards), 4x par 3s (177-228 yards) and 3x par 5s (593-596 yards).

The event has averaged a winning score of -19.2 across the five renewals so far. However, this largely open and exposed course becomes a different beast when the wind is up, as we’ve seen with winning scores varying from a tough -15 in 2021 to a couple of renewals being won at -20 or better.

Built on the site of an old sod farm, the sandy ground can make this rolling course play quite firm if getting the preferred dry conditions. Many holes are framed by tall viewing mounds and water is the predominant threat, coming into play on 15 holes around the property.

Whilst the previously extremely sizeable fairways have been tightened, they’re still fairly generous and mostly doglegged. They are lined by native grasses, rough and waste bunkers; having said that it hasn’t typically been too penal to players who miss the short stuff, providing they aren’t spraying it too wide.

The large, elevated and undulating bentgrass greens will play to a speedy 12.5 on the stimp this week, weather-permitting. They rank as the eighth-easiest greens to find on the PGA Tour over the last five years, however the combined short-game challenge is one of the most difficult.

Abundantly deep greenside bunkering, some thick patches of rough and tightly-mown collection areas creates a varied around-the-greens challenge, which results in TPC Twin Cities ranking 6^th in scrambling difficulty on tour. Therefore, whilst the putting surfaces may be easy to find, players a little off with their long game must be ready to have their short game severely tested.

As with many TPC courses, Twin Cities and its ample water creates a major sense of risk/reward throughout the course, which is certainly prevalent over the closing holes.

The 411-yard par 4 16^th requires a tee-shot into a fairway that is well protected by bunkers to the left and water to the right. This water stretches up to the shallow, elevated green, which is guarded by bunkers short and abound with run-offs.

Water is a feature of three of the four par 3s, including the 202-yard 17^th. This large green is surrounded by a grandstand, with a large bunker long and water hugging the front. If the wind is up, expect to see carnage.

The final hole is a 596-yard par 5 that travels left-to-right around a large lake. Water hugs the right-hand side of the fairway and sits to the front of the closing green. If players choose to layup rather than go for it in two, they must navigate a bunker-laden layup area as well as that water.

This finish is indicative of much of the course and whilst not especially subtle, it does make for an exciting, action-packed tournament.

THE WEATHER

Storms from Sunday-Tuesday could soften the course up prior to the start. Fortunately, these storms don’t look to be sticking around for the actual tournament and the forecast is currently predicting four dry, bright and warm days.

However, wind could be a factor, especially over the weekend. From Saturday, the mild breeze from the opening two days will get a little stronger, with general speeds of 13-15mph and gusts at 27mph+ forecast for the final two rounds. Which should make things interesting on this exposed setup.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach
• Proximity from 150-200 yards

It does look like players will need to display a bit of everything throughout this week with those potential weekend conditions. Though, as it has been in previous years, the irons should be of prime importance.

Lee Hodges was good across the board last year but excelled in approach, ranking 1^st and of the three runners-up there, JT Poston ranked 4^th.

Five of the top-10 in 2022 ranked inside the top-10 in approach, including winner, Tony Finau, who ranked 3^rd.

2021 didn’t produce an especially approach-heavy leaderboard, though the first two editions did. Michael Thompson ranked 4^th on his way to victory in 2020; Matthew Wolff ranked 2^nd in 2019, with runner-up, Collin Morikawa leading the field.

In addition, we should pay closer attention to players who are at their best with approaches in the 150-200yd range, which has been the most common since this event debuted.

• SG: Off-the-Tee
• Driving Distance

The winners/contenders here have been littered with strong drivers, with plenty of power also on show. This doesn’t come as a shock, with two par 4s above 500 yards and each of the par 5s relatively lengthy at just under 600 yards.

2022 was especially eye-catching in this regard, as six of the top-10 ranked inside the top-10 off-the-tee. This included the big-hitting Tony Finau taking the title and ranking 3^rd with driver, whilst runner-up, Sungjae Im ranked 2^nd.

Cameron Champ is a player who has shone with driver since turning pro and continually ranking as one of the longest players on tour, he certainly fits the bill. We also witnessed similar types going well in 2019, with winner Matthew Wolff and Bryson DeChambeau in 2^nd ticking the box.

• SG: Putting (Bentgrass)

The putter has been a mixed back in terms of importance but on tricky, undulating greens that can get pretty speedy, it makes sense to try and side with players who have positive experience on comparable surfaces.

Lee Hodges ranked 4^th on the greens last year, whilst 2021 and 2020 winners, Cameron Champ and Michael Thompson, both led the field with putter.

• SG: Around-the-Greens
• Scrambling

Ordinarily, this event – at which greens are usually easy to find – wouldn’t be one at which I’d be looking at players who are strong around-the-greens. However, if those weekend winds arrive, we may see fewer greens than usual hit and as a demanding scrambling test, players who are sharp around-the-greens should benefit.

Indeed, the 2022 renewal, which was won by Tony Finau, saw the lowest greens-in-regulation percentage in the tournament’s history and Finau ranked 2^nd around-the-greens – his highest strokes-gained ranking of the week.

• Par 4 Scoring

Finally, with three par 5s that are by no means gimme birdie chances and some tricky par 3s, it’s the variety of the par 4s that should be the most important holes on the course this week.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Shriners Open (TPC Summerlin)

TPC Summerlin looks comfortably the strongest comp for TPC Twin Cities. With generous fairways and large bentgrass greens, it ranks similarly to this week’s host from a ball-striking perspective and is also tricky to scramble around. As another TPC course, there are no shortage of risk reward opportunities and with approaches from 150-175yds common, players who excel in that range should play well at each course.

Notable correlating form:

Matthew Wolff:

3M Open (1^st) / Shriners (2^nd, 2^nd)

Martin Laird:

3M Open (2^nd) / Shriners (1^st, 1^st)

Bryson DeChambeau:

3M Open (2^nd) / Shriners (1^st)

Sungjae Im:

3M Open (2^nd) / Shriners (1^st)

Kevin Streelman:

3M Open (2^nd) / Shriners (2^nd)

JT Poston:

3M Open (2^nd) / Shriners (3^rd, 4^th)

Cameron Tringale:

3M Open (3^rd) / Shriners (2^nd)

Alex Noren:

3M Open (3^rd) / Shriners (3^rd)

Adam Hadwin:

3M Open (4^th, 6^th) / Shriners (2^nd, 4^th)

Tom Hoge:

3M Open (4^th) / Shriners (4^th, 7^th)

James Hahn:

3M Open (4^th) / Shriners (5^th)

John Deere Classic (TPC Deere Run)

TPC Deere Run has a similar ball-striking test to this week’s venue, with generous fairways and bentgrass greens easy to find. As another course that can be somewhat difficult to scramble around, they have enough in common to make this a strong comp.

Notable correlating form:

Bryson DeChambeau:

3M Open (2^nd) / John Deere (1^st)

JT Poston:

3M Open (2^nd) / John Deere (1^st)

Emiliano Grillo:

3M Open (2^nd, 3^rd) / John Deere (2^nd)

Jhonattan Vegas:

3M Open (2^nd) / John Deere (3^rd)

Kevin Streelman:

3M Open (2^nd) / John Deere (7^th, 8^th, 8^th)

Scott Piercy:

3M Open (4^th) / John Deere (3^rd)

Callum Tarren:

3M Open (7^th, 13^th) / John Deere (6^th)

ISCO Championship (Keene Trace Golf Club)

Keene Trace GC is a similarly open course, with generous fairways – which lack punishment for missing - and large bentgrass greens. It ranks very closely as a ball-striking test to TPC Twin Cities and calls on players to show quality from 175-200yds in approach.

Notable correlating form:

JT Poston:

3M Open (2^nd) / ISCO (2^nd, 5^th)

Kevin Streelman:

3M Open (2^nd) / ISCO (2^nd)

Martin Laird:

3M Open (2^nd) / ISCO (6^th)

Richy Werenski:

3M Open (3^rd) / ISCO (2^nd)

James Hahn:

3M Open (4^th) / ISCO (5^th)

Travelers Championship (TPC River Highlands)

Generous fairways, bentgrass greens and a comparably difficult short-game test make TPC River Highlands a strong statistical match for TPC Twin Cities.

Notable correlating form:

Michael Thompson:

3M Open (1^st) / Travelers (4^th)

Kevin Streelman:

3M Open (2^nd) / Travelers (1^st, 2^nd)

JT Poston:

3M Open (2^nd) / Travelers (2^nd)

Sungjae Im:

3M Open (2^nd) / Travelers (3^rd)

Tom Hoge:

3M Open (4^th) / Travelers (3^rd)

Cognizant Classic (PGA National)

Though PGA National has traditionally been much more challenging than TPC Twin Cities, the exposed, water-laden nature of the course has allowed players to transfer form between these two events. They rank closely in scrambling difficulty and with approaches from 150-200yds common across both, there is plenty to tie these courses together.

Notable correlating form:

Michael Thompson:

3M Open (1^st) / Cognizant (1^st)

Sungjae Im:

3M Open (2^nd) / Cognizant (1^st)

Jhonattan Vegas:

3M Open (2^nd) / Cognizant (4^th)

Keith Mitchell:

3M Open (5^th, 5^th) / Cognizant (1^st)

Alex Noren:

3M Open (3^rd) / Cognizant (3^rd, 5^th)

Valspar Championship (Innisbrook Resort – Copperhead Course)

The Copperhead Course wouldn’t look the most obvious comp but it’s a place where excellent drivers have had plenty of success and with approaches from 175-200yds key, it has developed strong form-ties with TPC Twin Cities.

Notable correlating form:

Kevin Streelman:

3M Open (2^nd) / Valspar (1^st)

Charl Schwartzel:

3M Open (2^nd) / Valspar (1^st)

Louis Oosthuizen:

3M Open (2^nd) / Valspar (2^nd)

Sungjae Im:

3M Open (2^nd) / Valspar (4^th)

Martin Laird:

3M Open (2^nd) / Valspar (5^th)

Cameron Tringale:

3M Open (3^rd) / Valspar (3^rd, 3^rd)

Adam Hadwin:

3M Open (4^th, 6^th) / Valspar (1^st)

Scott Piercy:

3M Open (4^th) / Valspar (5^th)

THE FIELD

There’s some decent strength in this week’s field as several players are currently stated to make the trip from Scotland. Sahith Theegala is the top-ranked player in the field at #11 and one of 11 from inside the top-50, including last week’s Open Championship runners-up, Billy Horschel and Justin Rose, as well as the winner of the Barracuda Championship, Nick Dunlap.

2023 champion, Lee Hodges will also be in attendance and he is joined by the previous two winners of this event, Tony Finau (2022) and Cameron Champ (2021).

Current #2 and #4 amateurs in the world, Luke Clanton and Benjamin James will tee it up; as will South African four-time DP World Tour winner, Thriston Lawrence after his impressive display last week at Royal Troon.

SELECTIONS

*You can get all thew latest 3M Open 2024 Odds and bet on the event with us at betfred.com

Market leaders: Tony Finau 10/1, Sam Burns 18/1, Sahith Theegala 20/1, Akshay Bhatia 25/1, Luke Clanton 28/1, Keegan Bradley 30/1, Keith Mitchell 30/1

Tony Finau has made a habit of taking down these types of fields in recent years and he’s rightly a strong favourite this week.

That being said, in a field where an albeit excellent amateur is 28/1, I’m happy to go looking for value elsewhere, and it’s with Australia’s Cam Davis I begin this week’s selections.

Cam Davis

Davis won his second Rocket Mortgage Classic two starts ago and followed up with a 26^th-place finish in the Scottish Open next time out. Failing to get into The Open, he took last week off and at a course at which he’s got a good record, he should be fresh and raring to go this week.

He had a good spell around February-April, recording four top-25s in six starts, including a 12^th-place finish at Augusta. However, his win in Detroit came a little out of the blue, having finished no better than 38^th in his previous seven starts.

The big-hitting Aussie was good across the board there, ranking 5^th tee-to-green and 20^th on the bentgrass greens. He was also excellent tee-to-green at the Scottish Open, ranking 5^th again, but struggled on the greens there and should appreciate a return to similar surfaces to which he’s now recorded two victories on the PGA Tour.

Davis has played in each of the five renewals of this event so far and after missing the cut in 2019 he’s gone on to acquire a strong record, finishing 12^th, 28^th, 16^th and 10^th on his last four starts. He possesses top-10s in each of the Cognizant Classic, John Deere Classic and Shriners Open, and though not included above, the Rocket Mortgage could also prove a good guide, as a place where former 3M Open winner, Tony Finau has won and Matthew Wolff has finished runner-up.

Kurt Kitayama

Kurt Kitayama has been in good ball-striking form all season, which he again displayed in The Open last week. He struggled with the putter there, as he has for much of the season, however, he had looked good on the greens in his previous two starts and I’m hoping he can rediscover that form on his 3M Open debut this week.

Kitayama has been consistent throughout the year, missing just three of 16 cuts, though has only recorded the three top-25s; the best of which came when finishing 8^th in the Phoenix Open.

This is where the putter has caused him problems, as he’s hit the ball well enough to have threatened the top of the leaderboard much more often than that. He ranks 19^th this season off-the-tee and is a lengthy 34^th in driving distance. His ranking of 54^th in approach is solid enough but we can upgrade his iron credentials a touch for this test, with him one of the strongest players from 150-200 yards on tour, ranking 4^th from 150-175 and 31^st from 175-200. Whilst he’s also a tidy 87^th around-the-greens, which should come in handy if the wind causes problems this weekend.

Kitayama will be making his debut this week but he does have an excellent 3^rd in the Cognizant Classic to his name to suggest he may take to the course. Additionally, his solo PGA Tour win to date came at Bay Hill – another Arnold Palmer design – which can only strengthen his case at TPC Twin Cities.

Jake Knapp

Jake Knapp made his tour breakthrough in the Mexico Open earlier in the year and following somewhat of a return to form over recent starts, I’m taking this big-hitting ball-striking type to go well on his 3M Open debut.

Knapp wasted little time establishing himself at this level in his rookie season. Following a couple of subpar efforts to start the year, he impressed with a 3^rd-place finish in the Farmers Insurance Open and two starts later, recorded that Mexico Open victory; before going close to back-to-back tour wins on his next start when 4^th in the Cognizant Classic.

His form hasn’t been quite as strong since then, but he initially continued to make plenty of cuts and recorded another top-10 when 8^th in the CJ CUP Byron Nelson.

He struggled in a run of elite events in May/June, finishing down the field in 58^th in the Wells Fargo Championship and missed three straight cuts at the PGA Championship, Memorial Tournament and US Open. Though fortunately, he looks to have come out the other sider of that run now.

The American has made his last four cuts and was 24^th in last week’s Barracuda Championship, where he fired a brilliant nine birdies in his final round. It was a positive to see him find some better approach play over those last 18 holes and I’m hoping he can carry that over into this week.

At his best, Knapp is an excellent, long driver of the ball, and has generally been strong in approach and competent on the greens throughout the year. His 4^th-place finish at PGA National earlier in the year bodes well and gives me confidence he can hit the ground running this week.

Austin Eckroat

Austin Eckroat is another player who made his tour breakthrough earlier in the year when taking down the Cognizant Classic. This quality ball-striker hasn’t managed to hit similar sights since, though there have been positive displays and with his long game continuing to fire, he looks a lively contender this week.

Eckroat has made 13 starts since winning in Florida and missed just three cuts. He’s made the weekend in each of the final three majors, recording an 18^th-place finish in the PGA Championship and arrives here after finishing 66^th at Royal Troon on his Open Championship debut.

He is at his best in approach, ranking 18^th for this season and also ranks 32^nd and 28^th in proximity from 150-175 and 175-200 respectively. He compliments this with a good driving game, ranking 34^th OTT, showing expert accuracy and though not long, he’s certainly not one of the shorter players on tour.

Eckroat was an encouraging 16^th at TPC Twin Cities on debut in 2021. He actually opened that event with a 2-over 73 to sit 122^nd after round one but flew up the leaderboard over the next three days with rounds of 67-68-67. He’ll need to bounce back from a missed cut here last year but with that win in the Cognizant Classic looking a great pointer, I’m confident he can do so.

Taylor Moore

Following a consistent start to the season, Taylor Moore has been a little off it over recent starts. Though as a powerful driver who putts bentgrass well, I fancy this setup to spark him back into life.

Moore’s start to the season saw him make his first 13 cuts on the bounce and produce several noteworthy displays. His highest finish came when finishing runner-up in the Houston Open, but almost as impressive were his 20^th-place finish at Augusta and 12^th-place finish in the PGA Championship in our first two majors of the season.

He hasn’t fared too well in the next two, missing the cut in each of the US Open and Open Championship, but a 10^th-place finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic two starts ago signalled that his game isn’t all that far away.

The Texan has been at his best with the driver this season, ranking 57^th and possesses plenty of power. The short game is rock-solid too and whilst his iron play has regressed since earlier in the year, he did show signs of improvement during his second round last week. When clicking he’s a player who shows competence right throughout the bag.

That was well on show when Moore impressively held off a group of quality contenders in last year’s Valspar Championship, which provides me with enough promise that he can give a good account of himself on his 3M Open debut this week.

Pierceson Coody

Pierceson Coody went close for us last time out when losing a playoff in the ISCO Championship. This talented youngster then took last week off and will hopefully feel refreshed for another crack at his maiden PGA Tour title in Minnesota.

Coody has got better as the year has gone on following a tricky start to his rookie season. He comes into this week after making his last six cuts in a row, over which time he’s recorded two top-5 finishes; finishing 5^th in the Charles Schwab Challenge five starts ago, before that runner-up finish in Kentucky two weeks since.

He led that event through each of the first three rounds after opening with a sublime 11-under 61 and following rounds of 67 and 68. This gave him a one-shot lead going into the final round and though he endured a tough, up-and-down day, he showed plenty of fight to make a clutch birdie on his final hole to get into that playoff, losing out to Harry Hall. He should be able to use that experience for the better the next time he finds himself in a similar position and as a three-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, this former #1 amateur has demonstrated an appealing winning ability in the past, albeit at a lower level.

Coody has been at his best on the greens this year, ranking 3^rd and shown a level of comfort on bentgrass over recent starts. He struggled with his long game at the start of the year but that has started to catch up, particularly the driver, as he has gained strokes OTT in six of his last seven starts.

Though making his debut here, that runner-up finish at Keene Trace should serve him well and I expect him to keep threatening now he has finally found his feet at this level.

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