Formula One Constructors’ Championship Odds: Who can challenge Red Bull in 2024?

Red Bull won 21 of the 22 races in the 2023 Formula One season. Max Verstappen won 19 of those in the most dominant season the sport has ever seen. The world champion finished with more than twice as many points as his teammate Sergio Perez, who himself ended the season 51 points clear of Lewis Hamilton in third. 

Even at Ferrari’s peak we didn’t see a constructor dominate every race like Red Bull did last year. But there’s a pack forming behind them of ambitious teams ready to take giant leaps forward. With Lewis Hamilton’s impending move to Ferrari, it feels like the 2024 season has been overshadowed completely - but there’s a whole lot of racing to be done over the next 10 months.

Red Bull are clearly expected to dominate again after winning the title with such ease last term and Betfred have priced them as the 3/10 favourites to win the Constructors’ Championship. But the investigation into Christian Horner’s behaviour has cast a shadow over their preparations for the 2024 season, with pre-season testing in Bahrain now just a week away. 

With Sergio Perez clinging onto his seat with that second-place finish last year, despite growing speculation around his future, it feels as though Red Bull’s dominance may not be the certainty it once was. If Horner is forced to resign, as key figures such as Bernie Ecclestone have suggested, the Red Bull garage will be rocked by the absence of a man who has held such an influence over the past few years.

However, Verstappen is still likely to win the title. He has proven himself to be the standout driver in the sport with three consecutive world championship wins and his car isn’t going to have regressed this term. It would take something gargantuan for one of the chasing pack to overhaul him, but it isn’t an impossibility that the race for the Constructors' Championship will be a lot closer.

Below we’ve looked at how the three main contenders are shaping up ahead of lights out in Bahrain.

McLaren @ 11/2

On the surface it is quite interesting that McLaren have moved up to second spot in the odds for the Constructors' Championship title for 2024. They’ve just revealed their MCL38 car for this season and will hope their progress over the winter can match the strides they made during the 2023 season.

The first half of the campaign was littered with mistakes, and the car just looked completely off the pace. Oscar Piastri was left towards the back of the pack as he got to grips with his debut season in Formula One, while Lando Norris wasn’t faring much better, finishing 17th in four of the opening seven races.

But as the season progressed and upgrades were added to the car, McLaren began to fly. In Piastri and Norris they have two young drivers who have huge potential, and with every passing race they should improve. Meanwhile, Zak Brown has proven himself to be an ambitious CEO and Andrea Stella has certainly impressed since his promotion to team principal in December 2022.

McLaren will be confident coming into 2024 based on the fact that Norris ended last season with six second-place finishes and seven podiums. Meanwhile, an improving Piastri grabbed two podiums and will hope to break the 100-point barrier this time around. The English manufacturer were the second-highest scorers over the final 14 races, so this should be a big season for McLaren, who look to have a setup that points to success in the long term.

Mercedes @ 15/2

Mercedes are no longer top dogs in Formula One, and that doesn’t seem to be going down too well with Toto Wolff. Remarkably, they’ve won just one race over the past two years since the new regulations were brought in, but this season they have promised major changes over the winter.

Of course, we must also consider the impact that Hamilton’s impending exit will have on the team. The Brit has been so intrinsically linked to Mercedes throughout his illustrious career that they will dream of giving him the perfect send-off. At the very least, he surely has to win at least one more race before moving to Ferrari.

It feels like we’ve had false promises of improvement before from Mercedes over the last 12 months, but Jenson Button still believes they are the team best-placed to challenge Red Bull.

"When you look at the last 10 years in the sport, it's Mercedes and Red Bull, so it would be Mercedes,” he told Sky Sports when asked which team is most likely to challenge Red Bull in 2024.

"I would love to say Ferrari, I would love to have them in the mix. You could say they were the closest competitor, especially towards the end of the season, but I think Mercedes will have a good improvement [for 2024]. Whether it's enough, I don't know."

Hamilton’s fairy tale ending feels like just that as this moment in time. False promises over the past two years are probably what brought him to his shock decision to depart the team at the end of the year. But in George Russell, Mercedes have a man who will be desperate to prove he can lead the team into the future. Whatever happens in the Brackley HQ, it won’t be a quiet season.

Ferrari @ 15/2

It wasn’t that long ago that Ferrari were going toe-to-toe with Red Bull for race victories. At the start of the 2022 season, Charles Leclerc and Max Verstappen were trading blows and it looked at one point as though the Marranello outfit would push Red Bull all the way. As it turned out, reliability issues and strategic errors put paid to any title dreams they had as Verstappen ran away with it across the second half of the season.

2023 felt like a season of regression for Ferrari, but I believe they still possess one of the finest drivers in the paddock in Charles Leclerc. The Monegasque driver posted six podium finishes last term, three of which came in his last three starts of the season. He also finished second in the final two races, so if you are looking for positives from a Ferrari point of view, look no further.

I believe Leclerc has what it takes to win a world championship, and I also think he will have a point to prove in the final season before the arrival of Hamilton. He won’t want to be considered as a number two, and so will want to close the gap on Red Bull, and importantly, beat his future teammate this year.

The question mark in terms of team success comes with Carlos Sainz. The 29-year-old now knows he will not be at Ferrari next term and his future is up in the air. Despite the poor optics around him, he will surely be coveted by a lot of teams. He finished just six points behind his teammate in 2023 and was the only non-Red Bull driver to win a race when taking the chequered flag in Singapore. He’ll want to perform well to get himself a seat, but the team dynamics may not be as smooth as they once were.

From a technical point of view, their decision to not replicate Red Bull's suspension layout, with its pull-rod front and push-rod rear suspension, feels like a gamble, while Mercedes look to have gone the same way as the current Constructors’ champions. If it pays off, it could lead to significant gains on the track, but I wouldn’t hang my hat on that being the case.

Ferrari must be wary of writing this season off as one of transition. They’ve got two strong drivers in place at the moment, and team principal Frederic Vasseur will be keen to capitalise on the positive end to the last campaign. If the strategic errors and reliability issues that haunted them in 2022 are a thing of the past, the Prancing Horse could become contenders once again - even before Hamilton is unwrapped at Christmas.