F1 Predictions 2026: Mercedes set to rise to the top?

Here we are then. The 2026 Formula One season begins this weekend in Melbourne, Australia and boy am I excited. We’ve got so much to preview including some new teams and new regulations, but the drivers are all fairly familiar as Lando Norris looks to defend the world title he won for the very first time in 2025. 

Australia awaits - let’s get stuck into some F1 Predictions 2026. 

F1 Drivers’ Championship Odds

We don’t usually see the reigning world champion as the sixth-favorite to retain his crown, but Norris is 10/1 to do exactly that heading into 2026, speaking of the apparent progress Mercedes and Ferrari have made. 

George Russell is the favourite at 9/2, Max Verstappen is 10/3, Charles Leclerc is 11/2 and Lewis Hamilton is 13/2 - with Kimi Antonelli at 8/1.

More drivers and new teams

I know plenty of you will have turned off the F1 for the winter - and fair enough, it’s all quite boring stuff until the racing gets back underway. However, you will notice a couple of new teams taking to the grid in Melbourne, with Audi and Cadillac, two giants of the automotive industry - joining the fun. 

Cadillac are a brand-new team, supported by General Motors, but their two drivers Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas are both hugely experienced in the sport. Audi have taken over from Sauber - or Kick since 2024 - and will make their first appearance on the grid in Australia. Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto, the two drivers who were at Kick last season, keep their spots on the grid. 

The usual suspects will all be around, but these new additions mean that 22 cars will start on track each race, rather than the more familiar 20 we have seen in recent years. 

The technical stuff

Winter is all about car evolution and techy stuff. The basics of the rules changes for this year mean that DRS has gone, but we have recharge, boost and overtake buttons in its place. Drivers can alter their front and rear wings in something called ‘active aero’ while they can recharge batteries to save to use on boost and overtake. 

Overtake - Replaces the current DRS overtaking aid and gives drivers extra electrical energy whenever they are within a second of the car in front. This should make overtaking easier, just as DRS did, but there is just one detection point per lap. 

Boost - Drivers can also use the boost button to give themselves max power from the engine, but any driver can use this at any time - whether attacking or defending their position on the track. 

Cars are now smaller and lighter, while the tyres are narrower which is hoped to show us which driver’s have the skill to control these immensely fast cars through the corners. 

George Russell to win the Drivers’ Championship @ 9/4

I think this could be Russell’s year. After a few years of honing his skills without truly challenging the elite, Mr Saturday became Mr Consistent - and he is such a steady hand at every circuit that I think a faster car could deliver him the title. 

Testing shows Mercedes are probably one of the top two teams along with Ferrari at this early stage, and I’d back the Mercedes garage to keep calm when the pressure is on. It’s a very early shout and it’s so much easier to judge when we’ve seen them race - but I think Russell and Mercedes will go close. 

F1 Odds

McLaren off the pace?

At the start of last season, the McLarens won 12 of the first 15 races as they came out of the blocks in style and ultimately that rapid accumulation of points is what allowed them room to manoeuvre over the second half the season. 

Zak Brown’s team will be hoping his team can show the same level of consistency as they did over 2025, as Norris scooped his first title - but the extraordinary talent of Oscar Piastri will want to prove he is the top dog in the Papaya garage. We could be in for another tit-for-tat McLaren battle - but they don’t appear to be quite at that same level right now and the odds reflect that.

Ferrari and Mercedes may have overtaken them on and off the track - but you’d be a brave man to write off McLaren this soon. 

Max fights back 

Verstappen will clearly be highly-motivated to win back his world title having won the last three races of the 2025 season. He had a bit of a moan (nothing new there) after testing in Bahrain, saying: "As a pure driver, I enjoy driving flat out," Verstappen said. "And at the moment, you cannot drive like that. A lot of what you do as a driver, in terms of inputs, has a massive effect on the energy side of things. For me, that's just not Formula One."

However, the signs are good for Max, with Red Bull’s underlying pace “pretty scary” according to Russell. 

Ferrari innovation

We have to talk about Ferrari - of course we do. Their 'flow turning device' could give them a massive advantage over their competitors and is built upon lower bodywork which could provide more downforce. 

That’s going to be tricky to replicate for other teams - and while their radical flip rear wing element certainly caught the eye in Bahrain, that should be simple to replicate if it works, by the other teams. Their innovation could lead to a strong start to the campaign, with Lewis Hamilton sure to be amongst the headlines once again. 

F1 Constructors’ Championship Odds

Perhaps surprisingly to some, Mercedes are the favourites to win the Constructors’ Championship before the first race at 15/8. McLaren who ran away with it last year are 5/2 while Ferrari are 11/4. 

Red Bull will rely heavily on Verstappen at 8/1, but ultimately it appears as though it's wide-open this season, with all of the big four set to be competitive. 

Mercedes to win Constructors’ Championship @ 11/8 

Mercedes may have been holding a bit back themselves, but their true pace will be revealed on the opening weekend - all signs point towards them being very fast indeed. Despite Ferrari’s innovation - an more on that shortly, it seems as though Mercedes could have found incredible pace over the winter, and they have two top quality drivers that may be able to carry them to the Constructors’ Championship. 

Kimi Antonelli is a key cog in this team, and it could be his performances compared to the other ‘second drivers’ that deliver this title for Mercedes. It’s been a while.