Australian Grand Prix 2026 Predictions: Will a Brit win?

F1 is back this weekend! It’s been a long and dreary couple of months but finally the dawn of the 2026 season is upon us. If you want to read my full 2026 F1 season preview, please follow the link, but for now all the focus is on Melbourne.

Below you can find my Australian Grand Prix 2026 predictions, as I look to get off to a winning start this campaign.

Australian Grand Prix 2026 Odds 

George Russell has been installed as the favourite to win this race at 2/1, Max Verstappen is 15/4 and Charles Leclerc is 9/2. Further back, the reigning world champion Lando Norris is a massive 10/1 to win the opener, showing that the bookies believe there has been major progress by Mercedes and Ferrari over the winter. 

Race Winner - British @ 20/21

Now I think there’s a lot of guesswork flying about before we see the team’s race pace this weekened. We can take a few nuggets of information from pre-season testing and what the drivers are saying - but ultimately, we won’t see true pace until qualifying on Saturday. 

Mercedes are by all accounts set to be near the front after an impressive winter, and they are favourites to win the Constructors’ Championship as a result, although Ferrari’s innovation could take them close in the early stages. 

With McLaren being written off by the bookies, I’m not quite as keen to throw Norris’ hopes in the bin, so to cover the spread as they say in the industry, I like backing the race winner to be British. That means we can root for Russell - Mercedes, Hamilton - Ferrari and Norris - McLaren, which should allow us to have three of the top six or seven contenders. 

F1 Odds

Charles Leclerc top three finish @ 10/11

I think Mercedes are strong, but Ferrari could go well in Australia especially if their super-duper flipping rear-wing pays off. Other teams look to be trailing behind Ferrari’s innovation and so if it pays off, the Prancing Horse could have a decent advantage over their rivals. 

I love Hamilton, of course, but Charles Leclerc is the younger, sharper man who will want to drag Ferrari close to the title. I think he is a great price to secure a top-three finish at a minimum in Melbourne. 

First team retirement - Cadillac @ 17/2

A bit of fun I guess for the first race of the season. Cadillac are the new boys on the block, and although Audi are also a new name - they are just taking over from Kick Saubar - so we should see a level of experience from that crew. 

Cadillac are a brand-new team - and with that comes a level of trepidation ahead of their debut. Sergio Perez and Valtteri Botts are as experienced as they come, but mechanically, the car may not be as solid as a rock yet - and if it isn’t, then an early retirement could land us a winner at a big price.