Australian Grand Prix 2025 Predictions: Leclerc vs Lando?

Finally, it has arrived. The start of the 2025 F1 season is upon us and I simply cannot wait to get stuck into what looks to be a truly open battle for the Drivers’ Championship this campaign. Sir Lewis Hamilton will compete for Ferrari for the first time, last season’s Constructors’ champions McLaren are looking strong again and of course, you cannot rule out four-time champion Max Verstappen.

It’s an early start this week, with the race getting underway at 04:00 on Sunday morning, on Sky Sports Main Event here in the UK. This is the first time Australia has hosted the curtain-raiser since 2019, and below you can find my Australian Grand Prix 2025 predictions.

Charles Leclerc to be on pole @ 9/4

Now, it is tough to judge this first race, so I want to give myself a bit of forgiveness if I don’t nail these predictions on week one. Although we can’t go on any previous races, we can go on what we have seen in the practice sessions so far - although I’m writing this before P3 takes place in the wee hours of Saturday morning. 

I also think there is plenty of value in the words that come out of a driver’s mouth at this stage of the weekend. They know the cars better than anyone and if they don’t think something is quite right, it might be worth being cautious about their hopes. One driver who has come out with confidence is Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc.

All eyes may be on his new teammate, but it would be disrespectful to make Leclerc the second-choice driver here - and he’s looked quick so far. He was the quickest driver around Albert Park in the second practice session, registering a time 0.42 seconds quicker than Hamilton, and two tenths ahead of the dangerous McLaren duo of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri - who of course will be dreaming of victory in front of his home crowd. 

Australian Grand Prix Odds

The stats look good, while Leclerc’s quotes after the session also make for positive reading. 

"We did a good preparation work because the feeling with the car was good," he said.

"There are things we need to improve as always and I am not very happy with the balance yet but we are in a much better place compared to Bahrain testing and there is still some performance to find.

"But that is the same for everyone. The cars are pretty new for everyone and you have to push it to understand where exactly is the limit. It has been a solid first day and we have to see how it goes tomorrow when we push a bit more.” 

McLaren will be there or thereabouts, but I think there’s plenty of value in backing Leclerc to take pole, as he did on three occasions last term. He needs to get off to a good start here, and I think he will get the job done over one lap. 

Lando Norris to win the Australian Grand Prix @ 2/1

Despite all the good words and confidence I have in Leclerc to deliver pole, I just believe that Norris is the man to beat over an extended race. He’s looked handy in the McLaren so far, taking top spot in the first practice session and third in the second, but it is his consistency that could take him clear this season. 

He was also fairly critical of the car after P2, saying: "It's been a good start to the weekend, we've got a good baseline but certainly not happy, like not confident with the car in terms of finding the best balance and being consistent enough, especially on low fuel. High fuel, I felt good. Just low fuel was still similar to Bahrain, too many inconsistencies, too many problems, so a bit of a struggle."

They’ve got another session and then qualifying to iron those issues out and I believe that by the time the lights go out Down Under, Norris should be the quickest on the track.

Lando Norris to win the Drivers’ Championship @ 13/8

I’d also like to put forward Lando to win the Drivers’ Championship in 2025. He’s the current favourite to do so, but it’s still worth backing in my eyes given the consistency he has shown, especially in the final few months of 2024. 

Max Verstappen is the current reigning champion, but something doesn’t seem quite right with him or Red Bull this term. He’s already stated that Red Bull “won’t be up there” this weekend and I don’t know how they are going to claw back the ground on Ferrari and McLaren, two teams that have surpassed them over the last year. 

Formula One Odds

It feels as though everything has lined up for Norris, and he should be able to win the majority of races. That’s a simplistic way of looking at things I know, and I think Ferrari will be very strong - but I can’t help but feel Leclerc and Hamilton may trip each other up at some point - with neither of them wanting to concede ground to the other. Norris is the one to win what could be an epic battle in 2025.