Players Championship Finals Darts 2024 Predictions: Can 50/1 Jonny be good in Minehead?

Following Luke Littler's stunning display at the Grand Slam of Darts in Wolverhampton, we move on to another ranking event in the form of the Players Championship Finals from Minehead.

As always, we've asked our darts expert Sean Rafferty to preview the event and give us his Players Championship Finals Darts Predictions, which he's done, as well as giving us three outright selections and some quarter final winners. 

History, Location and Format

The 2024 Players Championship Finals is the sixteenth running of this PDC event, having debuted in 2009 and was originally the top 32 players from the non-televised Pro Tour events. This has since been expanded to a field of 64.

The tournament is held at Butlins Resort in Minehead with this year's event running from November 22nd-24th and will be shown live on ITV4 in the UK.

The field of 64 is solely based on the top 64 in the Players Championship Order of Merit, which is built up over the 30 non-televised Players Championship Pro Tour events.

There is no draw for this event with the players ordered into a fixed bracket, with the number one seed playing the number 64 seed, number two playing 63 and so on.

There have been just two multiple winners of this tournament, with Michael van Gerwen winning it seven times and Phil Taylor winning it thrice.

The defending champion is Englishman Luke Humphries, who defeated van Gerwen 11-9 in the 2023 final.

Prize Money

There is a total prize fund of £600,000 on offer to the 64 participants.

Draw

Players Championship Finals Darts Odds

Outright

0.5 units Mike De Decker e/w (1/2 - 2 Places) @ 33/1

I’ll likely be on the Belgian for the remainder of 2024. Once again he showed he looks to be ready to go toe-to-toe with the absolute best in this sport, having narrowly lost out 10-9 to eventual winner Luke Littler in the Grand Slam, which was without doubt one of the best matches of the tournament.

He was 8-4 up in that one and missed six darts at double to go 9-5 up, in which case I would’ve seen no way back for The Nuke. However this did come back to haunt Mike as Littler completed a sensational comeback, however, the positive for De Decker is he didn’t collapse to let Littler back into the match, it was more of a masterclass from the teenager, the 104.49 average from De Decker tells you that. I’m hoping that defeat won’t hurt Mike for too long and he can bounce back here.

Prior to the defeat to Littler, De Decker came through his group, capping it with a 5-0 whitewash win over Michael Smith, denying him even a dart at double. Since that dream World Grand Prix title win last month, he’s continued to play solidly - making a couple of last 16s on the Pro Tour, a Euro Tour QF and last 16 at the Grand Slam. The Real Deal has averaged 100+ in seven games in that period, amongst a lot of mid to high 90s averages.

De Decker has won only one match in four visits to Minehead at this time of year, however he looks a different beast in the televised events now, which was always a stumbling block for him previously. He’s in a tricky section of the draw which contains the likes of Littler, Van Gerwen, Dobey and Wade.

However, if the Real Deal has proved anything over the last couple months it’s that he can beat the biggest names in the biggest matches over an extended format, he doesn’t fear anybody now. If he beats Richard Veenstra then gets past MVG or White, the section opens up a little and he can gain some momentum moving into the best of 19 leg matches.

Considering the best price available for De Decker to win the Worlds is now 28/1 (generally 22s/25s around the board) you can bet I’m taking him to win this at 33/1, as he looks to continue to build a big dog reputation ahead of the Ally Pally next month.

0.5 units Wessel Nijman e/w (1/2 - 2 Places) @ 33/1

It’s been a brilliant first year back as a permanent figure on the PDC Pro Tour for the young Dutchman, having won his tour card back later last year via the Development Tour. He went through a lot of turmoil the past few years having been found guilty in a match fixing scandal on the Modus Tour back in 2020. However, Wessel co-operated in a mature manner, served his ban and looks to have came back as a revived character and is playing better than ever.

He achieved a big milestone in his career when he won his maiden Pro Tour title last month, beating Gary Anderson and Stephen Bunting in his final two matches of that event. It was a matter of when as opposed to if, given the level he’s playing at now. He’s continued to clear up on the Development Tour too, picking up a staggering seven titles this year.

Wessel is clearly in a winning habit and knows how to get over the line, his next step is to do this in a televised event. Up until last week, his very much limited televised appearances hadn’t quite lived up to the hype. But last week at the Grand Slam, he caught a lot of headlines for playing out of his skin without actually winning a match. Incredibly, he averaged 106, 105 and 111 without recording a single victory. If nothing else, this will have proven to himself that he can produce that 5-star level on the big stage.

Nijman is in one of the weaker sections of the draw in my opinion, which makes him a more appealing bet. He should beat Kim Huybrechts in the opening round, he’d then face a tricky tie against Gian Van Veen or Scott Williams but will fancy himself to do the job.

Price and Searle are the biggest names in his mini section, but Price’s form is non-existent and if anything at all probably only has eyes for the World Championship. Ryan Searle travels back and forth to home between every match when he plays in Minehead which eventually wears him down in my opinion. As for the bottom half of this section, Wesley Plaisier is the only one that’s shown any recent form.

It’s clear to see Wessel has all the talent in the world, even being hyped up by Gary Anderson this past week. He just needs to put it together in a televised event and this looks a good opportunity to do just that in a wide open quarter of the draw.

0.5 units Jonny Clayton e/w (1/2 - 2 Places) @ 50/1

A very competitive quarter of the draw this one, which took the most consideration and eventually I landed on The Ferret.

It’s been an up and down sort of year for Jonny. In all honesty his game has looked gone in spells but he looks to just be returning to some form at the best time of year. In amongst some disappointments this year, he has won a Pro Tour event in July, on top of a further Pro Tour final and a Euro Tour final, coming out on the wrong side against Josh Rock on both those occasions.

The results and performances are beginning to improve - he reached the QFs of the World Grand Prix last month, then followed this up with two QFs and a final in the last four Pro Tour events. In the last batch of Pro Tours, he averaged 94+ in all eight of his matches, so it’s clear the form is returning for Clayton.

The list of capable names in this quarter are endless to be honest - Stephen Bunting, Martin Lukeman, Michael Smith, Rock, Jermaine Wattimena to name a few. But he has a nice opener against Florian Hempel who I expect him to beat, then faces the winner of Callan Rydz and Dirk van Duijvenbode, who have both faced their own issues this season. It’s a good chance for Jonny to reach the extended format in the last 16 and kick on from there.

The Ferret also enjoys a solid record at the PC Finals - reaching a final and two SFs in eight previous appearances. I’m expecting another big week in Minehead for Clayton at a massive 50/1.

Quarter winners

0.5 units James Wade to win Quarter 1 @ 20/1

A tournament televised on ITV4, surely that can only mean Wade is about to do something special, right? It’s probably a coincidence but James tends to have a really good record in the ITV tournaments and has previously enjoyed victory in Minehead at the UK Open in 2021.

The Machine doesn’t have the best World Championship record for a player of his calibre, perhaps the set play isn’t best suited to him. So I think Minehead this weekend could be a better opportunity for him to strike.

He’s in a really inviting mini section of the draw - facing Stephen Burton first which you’d like to think will be a straightforward win for Wade, then would face Danny Noppert or James Hurrell - again a winnable game. If he can come out on top in that quartet then he’ll reach the last 16 and who knows from there in first to 10, if he can get his scoring game going which he has done more often that not recently. 20/1 is a big old price for Wade just to make the semis.

0.75 units Wesley Plaisier to win Quarter 2 @ 14/1

The big Dutchman made some good inroads on the Pro Tour this year, despite not having a tour card. Thanks to his performances on the Challenge Tour and being high up on their order of merit, Wesley got to play in most of the Pro Tour events through the reserve list. He certainly made the most of it - making three Pro Tour finals, after two defeats he made it third time lucky when he defeated Josh Rock 8-7 last month to lift his maiden PDC title on the main tour. Even in the finals he lost in he averaged 105 and 100, so didn’t underperform.

Big Wes done more than enough to secure his spot at Ally Pally next month throughout the year, so this will be a stepping stone for him ahead of the big one.

Plaisier is a bit of a novice in terms of televised PDC events, bar a couple of UK Open appearances. However, he’s enjoyed some success in front of big crowds on the Euro Tour - reaching a QF in 2022 after defeating Jim Williams, Joe Cullen and Van Duijvenbode on that run, before losing in a deciding leg to Luke Humphries.

He followed this up last year, reaching the semis of the German Darts Open, beating Humphries and Ross Smith along the way. He also made the QFs of the WDF World Championship and has won the last two editions of the WDF World Masters, so I’d say he is a player who rises to the big occasion.

His half in the quarter of the draw is also very weak to be honest.

2 units Stephen Bunting to win Quarter 3 @ 4/1

I felt I had to back Bunting in some way this weekend, given the form he’s in. He’s in a competitive quarter of the draw but he still looks the man to beat in his section ahead of the likes of Lukeman, Daryl Gurney, Michael Smith etc, as statistically he’s comfortably in the driving seat.

The Bullet has played some immense stuff in recent months on the Pro Tour and been consistent at doing so. He made six PC finals (five finals in last ten played), the downside being that he didn’t win any of them. He managed to come here as number two seed despite not picking up a PC title, which emphasises just how consistent he’s been - he reached the QFs or better in eight of his last ten PC events.

The averages have also been impressive - Bunting sits sixth in the world for overall averages since the end of July. He’s dropped below a 91 average just once in his last 41 matches and posted fifteen 100+ averages in that time. Last week at the Grand Slam, he exited in the last 16 against Gary Anderson, mainly down to some dismal doubles. But he came through the “group of death” prior to that, with averages of 103, 104 and 107.

He isn’t one of the first names that springs to mind when it comes to getting over the line at the business end of tournaments, the Pro Tour this year shows that. But getting to the business end isn’t an issue. Three QFs here previously, hopefully he can go possibly go one better for us at 4/1.

1 unit Damon Heta to win Quarter 4 @ 9/1

I don’t usually back Heta in the televised events, as his record in them generally isn’t great and certainly not as good as his floor form. However, this looks a decent chance for Damo to go deep.

His odds are inflated due to Humphries and Anderson being in the same quarter. Humphries though hasn’t quite hit the heights in the last couple events and had an issue at home which was taking some of his focus away from the oche, I’m not sure this is cleared up yet. Gary Anderson has openly admitted he’s not a fan of Minehead before, so I’m not expecting too much from him despite being in a good mini section, his full focus will be on the Worlds now I reckon.

The Heat has recorded some tasty numbers recently - he’s averaged 101+ in 13 of his last 21 matches. He’s in a generous mini section here which contains Mervyn King, Krzysztof Ratajski and Madars Razma. Heta’s numbers are well ahead of all three of them and I fancy him quite strongly to make the last 16 without too much fuss.

If he can keep up a 100+ average in best of 19s from last 16 onwards then he’ll be hard to beat. He’s made two QFs in four appearances at the PC Finals, he could well go one better here at 9/1.

Darts Odds

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