Luke Littler vs Michael van Gerwen Prediction: We’ve boosted a huge checkout for the final!

We've made it all the way through to the final and pre-tournament favourite Luke Littler has made it to face the three-time champion Michael van Gerwen at Ally Pally on Friday evening.

Check out Sean Rafferty's Darts Betting Tips for the PDC World Championship Final where he fancies a huge checkout to take place and his selection has been boosted by the Betfred traders.

TherThereThere were 96 players here at the start but now we’re down to just two and it’s two of the biggest names in the sport - Luke Littler and Michael Van Gerwen. The pair enjoyed rather easy going victories yesterday evening, both running out 6-1 winners in their semi finals over Stephen Bunting and Chris Dobey respectively. Both ran into early leads and never looked back, Littler with the more impressive performance of the two - averaging 105.48 compared to 98.84 for MVG.

Due to both only playing seven sets last night, I can’t see fatigue or stamina playing a part at any stage here for either and both should come into the game feeling fresh - adrenaline alone should keep you going in a game of this magnitude anyway.

They played each other a staggering twelve times in 2024 and it couldn’t be any more even, with six wins apiece. The two biggest matches they played was the last 32 at the World Matchplay, in which Littler never properly got out of the traps and MVG ran out an easy 10-4 winner. The other one was the World Series semi-finals, where Littler put on an absolute masterclass, winning nine legs in a row from 4-2 down to destroy MVG 11-4 with a 108 average. Based on previous meetings over the past year, they’re very much 50/50.

Littler has been priced up as 2/5 favourite for the final, personally I’d probably have him around 4/7. There’s no denying that Littler’s tournament stats are slightly more impressive - he’s averaging a couple points higher than MVG, although his checkout percentage is slightly worse. The 180 power of Littler could see him take some sets away from MVG, whereas MVG may not quite have that scoring prowess in the locker at the moment.

MVG has played in six World Championship finals in total, winning three of them, although perhaps worth noting he’s lost his last two against Peter Wright and Michael Smith. Littler plays in just his second World final, albeit in just his second World Championship appearance. The pressure may be slightly different on The Nuke this time,  as Luke Humphries was slightly favoured in last year’s final but Littler is very much favourite here, which is new to him in a World Championship final. You could argue being underdog and having more experience could spur on MVG as he’ll want to prove a point, especially considering many didn’t fancy him pre tournament, myself included.

If I had to tell you to back one of Littler at 2/5 or MVG at 2/1, my advice would be to go with MVG, I don’t think there’s as much in it as the market suggests. Littler is saying in his press conference that he feels no pressure in this but time will tell.

I’m going to stay away from that market however and concentrate on a bet that both players can contribute to. A checkout over 160.5 looks a gem of a price. If it’s as tight as I think it could be, you’re talking 10 or 11 sets at least, which is a massive amount of time for one of these two to hit a checkout of 161, 164, 167 or 170.

The Nuke pinned a 170 finish at a crucial time in his match against Bunting last night. MVG hasn’t yet hit a 161+ checkout this tournament but has hit a 120+ checkout in all five of his matches so far, so is showing signs he’ll nail a really big one at some stage. Littler loves leaving the big fish so I suspect we’ll see plenty chances for this to land in an otherwise tricky match to bet on.

Let’s hope it’s a final for the ages!