PDC World Darts Championship 2025 Betting Tips: MVG to rediscover past glories?

It's the most wonderful time of the year....

Christmas has officially arrived with the start of the World Darts Championship at Ally Pally on Thursday and we've got a stacked line up for you here at Betfred Insights. 

Our expert tipster Sean Rafferty is in a hot vein of form at the moment and is peaking at just the right time for darts aficionados. He will have daily boosts based around his selections, so be sure to bookmark our darts page and come back daily for all the latest picks.

However,  first up we have his PDC World Darts Championship 2025 Betting Tips and outright preview... 

Tournament Winner:

1.5 units Michael Van Gerwen each-way (1/5 - 4 Places) @ 18/1

This selection has been in the back of my mind for a long time now, so I’m delighted to see we’re getting a mouthwatering price at 18/1. Many people last year, including myself, somewhat wrote off the chances of MVG winning the World Championship, but he very nearly did. He proved the doubters wrong and went all the way to the final, second only to Luke Littler.

Mighty Mike seems to have been similarly put lower down on the lists of many this time around, in terms of players who are a major threat to win the World title on the 3rd of January. This has led to the generous odds and I have to say I’m pleasantly surprised, considering he looks to be in one of the more open quarters of the draw.

Mitsuhiko Tatsunami awaits in the opening round for Van Gerwen, a nice enough opener you’d imagine, with the Japanese making his Ally Pally debut and having an annual average of only 82. Other seeds in his section such as Anderson, Wattimena and Wright are either out of form in major events or in Jermaine’s case, relatively unproven at the Worlds. There’s also the additional bonus of Littler being in the opposite half of the draw, which makes the each way aspect all the more appealing.

One of the main reasons for me going with Van Gerwen is his excellent record here - since 2013, Michael has made seven finals, culminating in three World titles. Excluding the year he had to withdraw halfway through the tournament due to COVID, he’s only failed to go beyond the 3rd round once in his last 12 World Championship appearances.

It’s been pretty well publicised that he’s had a lot going on away from the oche this year, which eventually resulted in him ultimately giving up on trying to qualify for the Players Championship Finals in Minehead. I believe his focus has been on the Ally Pally for a number of months now and he will arrive prepared for this. His World Series Finals win in September was enough evidence for me that he can still put it all together for a tournament when things click into place. At these odds, I simply can’t pass up the chance to back the Dutchman to lift his fourth World title.

1 unit Nathan Aspinall each-way (1/5 - 4 Places) @ 33/1

It’s been a real step back in the right direction for Aspinall this year, where do you start? A somewhat controversial pick for the Premier League earlier in the year, led to him showing exactly why he was picked by reaching the play-offs in London, only narrowly losing out to Humphries in the semis. Bagging himself a hat-trick of European Tour titles, having never previously won one prior to this year and most recently making the final of the Players Championship Finals last month, losing 11-8 to Littler.

It’s been massive progress for Nathan having suffered a pretty torrid 18 months or so before this year, having been plagued with injuries. That appears to be behind him now and he looks to be playing arguably the best darts he ever has done. He’s clearly got the belief and confidence back, delighted to finally be playing pain-free and things are good away from the oche which always helps.

The Asp had a poor spell at the Worlds from 2021 to 2024, but outside of that, he’s made back-to-back semis in 2019 and 2020, with a quarter-final last year in his other three appearances. His recent form is a lot better this time round in comparison to last year, where it still required Luke Littler to stop him, despite Nathan playing nowhere near his best.

He wouldn’t have to contend with Littler until the final this time round, although he does have the small matter of the other Luke (Humphries) to get past in this quarter, should they eventually meet in the Last 16. Set play could help him out on that front though and I fully expect him to reach the Last 16 looking at his section - Lourence Ilagan opening round should be a simple enough tie to navigate his way through, with a currently out-of-sorts Mike De Decker looking like the biggest obstacle in his path after that.

A 2nd round exit two years ago means he’s defending next to no ranking money and this is a golden opportunity for him to climb the rankings and firmly put himself back amongst the elite again. We’ve had plenty joy on Asp in the past, we could get it on the World stage this time round as he looks absolutely primed for a big run on the Ally Pally stage once more.

Quarter Betting:

2 units Jonny Clayton to win Quarter 2 @ 9/2

It’s quite incredible how wide open Quarter 2 of the draw is, I didn’t really see myself backing Jonny due to a few indifferent results recently, but he’s definitely the best of the bunch in this section. Bunting is the favourite but he’s struggled a bit recently, it’s almost as if his best form may already be behind him this year, having went out in the 1st or 2nd round in each of the last five televised tournaments.

In Jonny’s mini section, the other seeds include Michael Smith, who has severe issues with arthritis and was hobbling about on his foot in Minehead last month, Ross Smith who’s never gone beyond the Last 32 here and Dave Chisnall who hasn’t been remotely close to form for well over a year now.

Clayton has definitely had the best year of them all, he’s consistently gone on deep runs in the biggest tournaments - The Ferret reached the final of the Winmau World Masters, as well as the semi-finals of the UK Open, World Matchplay and World Grand Prix. It’s required a top class opponent to knock him out on each occasion.

His record here isn’t the greatest, only reaching one quarter-final in nine previous World Championship appearances, but I doubt he’s had many kinder draws than this. His World Grand Prix victory in 2021 is enough to convince me he can be just as efficient in sets play, as did his run to the final of the Winmau Masters and semis of the World Grand Prix this year.

I recall Clayton struggling against the methodical speed of Mickey Mansell here last year, but almost everyone in his quarter this time like to get on with it, so he should have no such issues this time and can play to his true pace in every round, which is a massive plus for Clayton who does rely on being able to keep some rhythm to his throw.

I feel like there’s little talk about Clayton this year but at big odds of 40/1, he looks the best bet to give Littler a challenge in this top half. A deep run here could also see him throw his name into the Premier League hat, so there’s plenty at stake for Jonny, which is often when we seem him produce his best darts.

1 unit Ryan Searle to win Quarter 2 @ 11/1

As I said, this quarter is by far the biggest minefield of them all, so I’d like to back someone from each half of the quarter. I did not think I’d be backing Searle to reach the semis of a World Championship but he’s never going to get a better chance than this.

He hasn’t had an amazing season but we all know the abundance of talent Ryan has, he’s still been maintaining a respectable level recently, having only dropped below a 90 average 4 times in his last 34 matches. He picked up a couple decent wins over Darren Beveridge and Callan Rydz at the recent Players Championship Finals, so definitely has enough to go off to come here feeling optimistic about his chances.

It raised an eyebrow or two when Ryan decided to skip the qualifying event for the Grand Slam, but he’s since said he just didn’t feel like doing it and most of his attention is on the upcoming World Championship. He added another two Pro Tour titles to his name this year too, proving he still has the attributes to beat anyone on his day.

Without having any standout runs as such, Searle still has a solid record at Ally Pally - he’s never exited before the Last 32 stage in seven previous appearances. Could this year be the time he finally pushes beyond the Last 16? Quite possibly. I feel there’s very little chat around Ryan coming into this, which may suit him down the ground, as a player who I get the impression prefers to stay out of the limelight.

The draw is definitely one I can see him weaving his way through - Chris Landman is the ideal opening round opponent you’d think, a lightning fast thrower who Ryan will be able to find his rhythm against with ease. We’ve seen he can navigate his way through the first couple rounds time and time again and there’s no daunting tie he has to come through to reach the semis.

Nobody in the top section of this quarter has a higher ceiling than Heavy Metal, he has levels nobody else can get to and for that reason I’m going to take an ambitious stab on him to come good and put it altogether at 11/1.

1.25 units Danny Noppert to win Quarter 4 @ 5/1

I couldn’t let this World Championship pass without supporting Noppert in some way, given the sheer consistency of the man and some of the success we’ve had on him in this type of market recently.

Let’s get the one negative out the way first - by his lofty standards, his World Championship record is so poor. The Freeze has never gone beyond the Last 32 stage at Ally Pally in seven previous appearances. Thankfully, I have more than enough reasons to counter that and outweigh the worries about the terrible record he has here.

Many would suggest that sets format perhaps doesn’t suit him. I’d challenge this considering he’s made the semi-finals of both the Winmau World Masters and the World Grand Prix this year, the two other sets play tournaments on the PDC calendar.

Secondly, his form has never been better than it is currently - only the absolute elite can compare to his consistency this year. All in 2025, Noppert has reached the semis of the World Cup, World Masters, World Grand Prix, European Championship and Grand Slam. The four defeats in the singles tournaments were to Luke Humphries on three occasions and Luke Littler on the other.

Had he not ran into the two best players in the world each time, he could well have another major title or two to his name by now. Fortunately for him, he doesn’t have to contend with the two Luke’s to make it to the semis as they sit in other quarters of the draw.

Finally, the form is tip-top from Noppie and as a result he appears to be building some inner confidence and belief in himself, if he can carry this with him to the Alexandra Palace then he’s such a threat to anyone. With his tendency to exit at the semi-finals stage, I’m confident I’ve went about things in the correct way in this quarter going with MVG to go all the way and Noppert to potentially reach the last four.

Noppert is clearly the biggest threat to Van Gerwen for me, he proved that at the Grand Slam last month when he seen off his Dutch counterpart 10-6. Looking at the draw, he should be making the Last 16 without breaking much of a sweat, with all due respect to his potential opponents up until that point. His last eight averages read as - 100, 107, 98, 98, 100, 104, 103, 100. If he keeps up that form then it’s going to take a special performance to stop him. This is the time for Noppie to finally break new ground on the biggest stage of them all and after that, who knows how far he can go.

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