World Series of Darts Friday Betting Tips: MVG to star at home

Our darts tipster Sean Rafferty has already given us his World Series of Darts Final Predictions but he is also doing a daily tipping piece as well. Here are his Darts Betting Tips for Friday's World Series of Darts action from Amsterdam including match by match breakdowns and a daily double. 

Game by game breakdown

Friday Evening:

Boris Krcmar vs Stephen Bunting - You have to think Bunting edges this based on the numbers. Krcmar hasn't averaged 100+ in  hislast 14 matches, averaging below 90 in eight of these also. The big Croat hasn’t got a great record in televised events, with the last 16 of the UK Open his best ever run.

Bunting hasn't had the best time of it since winning The Masters at the start of the year but he's still showed glimpses of class. He averaged 102+ in four of his last six matches, but averaged below 94 in the other two, so he's been a bit inconsistent, albeit his top game is still thereabouts.

He has only one previous WSODF appearance in 2016, making the QFs. Krcmar actually has a strong 3-2 record in head-to-heads, with the last two meetings going 6-5 either way. I see this being hard work for Bunting buthe should get over the line. I expect a 6-3 or 6-4 win for The Bullet.

Prediction - Bunting win

Gabriel Clemens vs Damon Heta - Clemens caught some of the headlines last weekend when he beat MVG for the first time in his career,  in a 6-4 win with a superb performance and a 107 average. He didn’t really kick on, losing to Dave Chisnall next round, which rather sums up his PDC career to date in what has otherwise been a very underwhelming year for the German Giant.

Heta has generally had a good year, having won two PC titles (one of them just two weeks ago) and made a World Series final last month. The Heat has averaged below 94 in his last five matches but averaged 98 in his five matches prior to this, so this isn't too much of a worry.

Heta has won his opening round match here on four of five appearances, whereas Clemens has failed to make it past the opening round on all three appearances. Heta holds a strong 6-2 record in previous meetings, more importantly he is 4-0 in matches they’ve played in front of a crowd. Every stat lies in Damo’s favour here, so I think he’ll win by a leg or two.

Prediction - Heta win

Dimitri Van den Bergh vs Chris Dobey - What a cracker of a match for the opening round!

It's currently 5-5 in previous meetings but Dobey has won the last three so holds the upper hand recently. Dimi has generally enjoyed this tournament, despite three first round exits in seven appearances, he made the final in 2021 and has also made two QFs too.

Dobey hasn’t qualified for this tournament since 2017, with one win in his previous two appearances. Dobey generally has the more consistently good form this year, winning two PC titles, including the most recent one. He’s also averaged 100+ in six of his last 10 matches.

Van den Bergh has achieved more in the televised events though, with a World Matchplay and a UK Open which he won in March to his name. As I say, his numbers aren’t as good - averaging below 100 in his last seven matches. Pros and cons here for both, making it really hard to call - due to recent form I’ll say Dobey edges it, possibly in a deciding leg.

Prediction - Dobey win

Johan Engstrom vs Raymond van Barneveld - Barney holds all the cards here in terms of big stage experience. Engstrom competes in his first televised PDC event here, which could see nerves from the Swede. The story of Barney just now in major inconsistency, it’s hard to tell what he’ll do from one game to the next. He’s generally in poor form - losing seven of his last nine matches.

However, he did pick up a PC title earlier in the year. RVB’s record is decent at this - making QF stage in four of his six appearances and has never lost a first round match. The crowd are bound to play a part here with Barney playing in front of a big Dutch crowd and Engstrom will not have faced anything like this previously. I think the occasion may get the better of him this time and fancy Barney to get this done comfortably.

Prediction - van Barneveld win

Luke Littler vs Ross Smith - Arguably the best match on paper in Friday evening’s session. Smith has grown as a player over his years in the PDC - winning three PC titles in the last 18 months, showing how far he’s come. However, he still hasn’t gone beyond the QFs in a televised tournament outside of his European Championship win in 2022, which he needs to sort to find himself in the elite. He has one previous appearance here in 2018 where he lost opening round, but he's a much better player than that now.

Littler makes his debut in these finals but arrives as top seed having enjoyed two QFs, two semis and two titles in six World Series events this year. The pair sit third and 11th in averages for the entire year and are 1-1 in previous meetings, with Littler most recently winning 7-2 in a Euro Tour semi final. Very tricky opener for The Nuke but I think he’ll just have too much for Smudger here.

Prediction - Littler win

Michael van Gerwen vs Jonny Clayton - Two top 10 ranked players meet in the first round here, albeit neither of them have been at their peak form for a while. Clayton has more than held his own against MVG - since 2020, Clayton leads 15-12 in the head-to-head to the surprise of some I’d guess.

Despite winning a PC title a couple of months ago, Clayton’s form has generally been poor this year, his 2024 average is more than four points lower than MVG. Clayton has averaged below 94 in 11 of his last 13 matches, emphasising his struggles recently.

MVG, despite his seemingly never ending quest to win another ranking title, has shown some decent signs recently - making the World Matchplay final in July, where he wasn’t fancied too much coming into the event. He's averaged 101+ in five of his last nine matches, so has good recent displays despite not always running out the winner.

MVG has a predictably fantastic record at this event - winning it five times in nine previous appearances, including last year. Clayton won this in 2021. Despite Clayton’s quality record against The Green Machine, I think The Dutchman runs out winner here in front of a home crowd in Amsterdam.

Prediction - van Gerwen win

Luke Humphries vs Haupai Puha - Puha is struggling a bit in life as a PDC tour card holder, having lost 15 of his last 20 matches. I can’t see that stat looking any brighter for him after this match against the world number one and World Champ. He’s averaged below 95 in 10 his last 11 matches, he’d likely need to average above that number to stand any chance of a win here.

Humphries returned to action on the Euro Tour last weekend after a few weeks off, where he lost out to Ricardo Pietreczko in the semis but averaged 98+ in all four of his matches, so can be relatively happy with his efforts.

Remarkably, Cool Hand only made his debut in this event last year, making the QFs. The numbers suggest an easy win for Humphries and I can’t see past him winning by 3+ legs if he keeps up his level of play from last weekend.

Prediction - Humphries win

Danny Noppert vs Gian van Veen - A tasty all-Dutch encounter to close Friday evening’s session. Another tricky match to call - only two points separate their yearly averages. Noppert is struggling for form - he’s only averaged 100+ in two of his last 42 matches, very poor numbers for a player of his calibre.

Van Veen equally hasn’t enjoyed as much success in 2024 as he did the previous 18 months, but remains a tricky opponent. He’s only made one QF in the last four months though. It’s two good players who aren’t playing their best stuff currently.

It's 2-2 on head to heads and they played each other in front of a Dutch crowd already this year at the Dutch Darts Masters, with van Veen running out a 6-3 winner. This really could go any way but I’m saying GVV edges it out in a tight match.

Prediction - van Veen win

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