Darts Betting Tips: Luke Littler to hit 13.5+ 180s in Betfred Boosted Double

We have made it to the Final Four and the two semi-finals at Ally Pally this Thursday evening should be thoroughly entertaining. Both matches though have heavy favourites, with Michael van Gerwen and Luke Littler both expected to roll and meet for it all on Friday night.

Check out Sean Rafferty's Darts Betting Tips for Friday's matches, with this boosted double, which our traders have put at 11/8 from an original 11/10 price...

Van Gerwen highest checkout over 130.5 @ 8/11

Dobey has finally made new ground in a World Championship campaign by reaching his first ever semi-final. It was third time lucky for him in terms of trying to get by the quarter final stage, having made it to that stage for a third successive year.

He fought back well from 2-0 down against Price when it looked like the match could get away from him early on.

I think it does have to be noted how nervous he looked trying to get over the finish line though - he should’ve wrapped it up 5-2 but was miles off with some extremely nervy match dart attempts, he later admitted himself he was feeling the pressure, MVG will be aware of this too. He regrouped and won the following set well to win 5-3, still looked nervy but the tank was empty for Price and he secured the match with a nice double-double out.

I think Dobey must know he’ll need to up his game tonight and won’t get away with the same mistakes or a slow start against Van Gerwen. MVG has just improved each game and looks absolutely primed to make a real fist of winning a fourth World title.

The Green Machine won an absolute thriller against a defiant Callan Rydz yesterday, eventually winning 5-3 and having to defy a relentless Rydz who averaged 104 himself over eight sets.

MVG averaged 103 in that one which continues his trend of improving his average game by game which now reads as 95-97-102-103. He’s played in eight World semi-finals, winning six of them. So he’s no stranger to this situation and coming out on top, unlike his opponent.

Van Gerwen has generally dominated the head-to-head between the two over the years, but its has levelled out a bit more recently - MVG leads 7-5 in matches since 2023. I have to say I think 2/5 for MVG is a very reasonable price - all the factors seemed to favour the Dutchman and I’m struggling to find any reasons to favour Dobey tonight.

Obviously the Geordie is a cracking player and we’ve had plenty of reason to believe that in recent years, to top the Pro Tour order of merit for 2024 you have to be a classy player. I just feel tonight could be a step too far and more of a learning curve for Hollywood more than anything.

I’m doubling up with a 2/7 pick so wanted to find a wee bit more value than MVG to win the match - he’s 8/11 to hit a checkout over 130.5 which looks like the best nugget of gold in amongst all the markets for this one. He’s always been prolific with the big checkouts and even with a drop-off in form in recent years, that’s never left his game.

For this tournament, his highest checkout in each match has been 120-149-126-154. Of course all of these were a shorter format than tonight, first to six sets tonight and you’d like to think Dobey wins at least a couple sets so you’ve got to think he has minimum eight sets to nail a 131+ checkout, I just can’t see past it given the amount of opportunities he’ll get and the way he’s playing.

Luke Littler over 13.5 180s @ 1/4

Luke Littler continues to justify his favouritism in the outright market, the teenager is now priced as a strong 4/6 favourite to go one better than last year and lift his first World title at just 17 years old. Once again, the favourite tag he’s carrying and the pressure that should come with that doesn’t seem to phase him at all.

'The Nuke' hasn’t quite been at the same level he was playing at here last year but his averages still read as 101-98-103-101 which can’t be sniffed at. It was the semi-finals where he really came alive last year when he bashed up Rob Cross 6-2 with a 106 average.

He’s a player who was made for these big nights and I honestly think he’ll thrive in this scenario the next couple nights, much like he did on Premier League Finals night where he seen off Michael Smith and Luke Humphries with averages of 100 and 105 to lift the title. He won’t underestimate Bunting and has already said he’s just concentrating on making the final first and won’t be looking too far ahead.

It shouldn’t surprise many that Bunting has made his second World Championship semi-final this year, given the form he’s been in, particularly in recent months. His year got off to a flyer, winning his first ever televised PDC title at The Masters in February.

His route to that title shows just how good he can be - seeing off Ross Smith, Humphries, Wright, Aspinall and Van Gerwen on his way. The last few months, he’s been absolutely flying on the Pro Tour, making five finals in less than two months over September and October.

It has seen him go to Minehead for the PC Finals as number two seed, despite not actually lifting a PC title. He came up short against Gary Anderson in the Grand Slam in November but absolutely tore it up in the group stages prior to that - going through the group of death with averages of 103, 104 and 107.

The Bullet has had a successful PDC career to date but will be the first to admit he’s not won enough titles - winning only three PDC titles since he got on tour in January 2014. So you’d have to question his chances of lifting the title tomorrow night which would by far top anything he’s achieved to date in the PDC.

These two are good mates but haven’t let that get in the way of things in the two meetings they’ve had in PDC - they played twice on the Pro Tour in September and October, Littler winning a final 8-7 then Bunting coming out on top 7-6 in a semi-final. A World semi-final is obviously a different kettle of fish, I’d love to see Bunting push Littler all the way again but reckon Littler gets this done by a couple sets to be honest.

I’m going to focus on Littler’s most reliable weapon at the moment which is absolutely battering in the 180s. The Nuke is the best 180 hitter in the world right now - averaging 0.40 180s per leg over the past year. His rate at this World Championship so far is even more impressive - The Nuke has hit 51 180s in 96 legs, averaging a staggering 0.53 180s per leg this tournament.

The pace of Bunting will suit him to a tee and that’s when he’s at his most deadly on the maximums when he can keep a rhythm going. Over 13.5 180s for Littler looks a bit of a banker, given he hit 15 in 7 sets against Aspinall and 14 in 7 sets against Joyce over the past two rounds. You’ve realistically got to expect a minimum of eight sets in this so I expect him to reach 14 180s comfortably, given he’s averaging over two 180s per set so far.