Darts Betting Tips: Sean’s shouts for Saturday
The PDC World Darts Championship continues on Saturday and we have another double from our resident darts expert Sean Rafferty.
Check out Sean's Darts Betting Tips below for Saturday, December 28, and the accompanying Betfred Insights Price Boost.
Darts Betting Tips - Saturday, December 28
- Scott Williams vs Ricardo Pietreczko - Over 130.5 Checkout @ 8/11
- Michael van Gerwen vs Brendan Dolan - Dolan +3.5 Sets Handicap @ 2/5
Day 11 Betfred Insights Boost (Double) pays @ 11/8 13/8
Scott Williams vs Ricardo Pietreczko - Over 130.5 Checkout @ 8/11
There isn’t a lot between these two in the match-winner market and I can’t say I disagree; it’s hard to separate their chances. Ricardo Pietreczko was massively overpriced in his previous match against Gian van Veen in my opinion - odds of 5/2 were available for the German and he won comfortably enough with a 3-1 victory, a flattering scoreline for the Dutchman if anything as Pietreczko won 10 of the 14 legs played. It was a pretty standard Pietreczko-type performance - low 90s average, some nice checkouts, and very good doubles, hitting 55 per cent of them. Doubles were the significant factor in the match, as Van Veen only hit 23 per cent of his targets on the outer ring.
11/10 for Pikachu to win doesn’t look as good value, as Scott Williams is just as tricky a tie. Shaggy seems to have taken a real liking to the Ally Pally - after a great run to the semi-finals here last year, he’ll already be eyeing up another deep run after a couple of good wins against difficult opponents in Niko Springer and Rob Cross. Whoever came through that trio on top would have to work hard for it and that’s exactly what he’s done. He came through a deciding set against Springer in an absolute thriller that I would’ve happily watched over a far longer format. His win over Cross was a really scrappy match littered with missed doubles from both - Williams hitting just 30 per cent on the outer ring, missing 26 doubles in total. I doubt he’ll get away with that here, the doubles could be the key factor in this one.
I’m going to focus on landing a big checkout in this match - I feel like big checkouts are a decent asset in both players’ games. Six-plus sets looks very likely so there’s a large amount of time, legs and opportunities to hit big checkouts, and there are bound to be loads of chances to do just that. Williams hasn’t quite got going with them yet, 100 checkout being his highest across his first two matches, but usually, he’s a regular at taking the big outs and enjoys going some adventurous routes on them usually, with him being the ultimate showman on the oche. Pietreczko has had highest checkouts of 158 and 122 so far, he’s only played seven sets in total thus far and could well play that amount in this match alone. It’s a match that will have numerous ton-plus checkouts, in my opinion, so one 131+ checkout doesn’t feel like too big an ask.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Michael van Gerwen vs Brendan Dolan - Dolan +3.5 Sets Handicap @ 2/5
Brendan Dolan has really struggled in the past few months with some muscular injuries that have somewhat stalled his season after having a decent start to it, picking up a Pro Tour title. Going by recent interviews, he’s over that now after a few weeks off and is back to full fitness playing without pain in the arm. If that remains the case then he’s a danger to most players, but will likely need to improve on the 92 average and up it in the scoring department; his doubles were outstanding at 69 per cent.
Michael van Gerwen knows all about Dolan being a potential banana skin, after The History Maker dumped out the Dutchman in the opening round of the World Matchplay last year in their most recent meeting, winning 10-7. He’s picked up a few wins over the years against MVG and you could perhaps argue Mighty Mike isn’t too keen on Dolan’s more methodical pace around the oche.
I feel another banana skin could be on the cards, it wouldn’t surprise me all that much considering some of the shocks we’ve already seen, and MVG departing from the tournament would truly blow this half of the draw wide open. I’m playing it safe though and simply going with Dolan to win a set, which I can’t believe is priced as big as 2/5. In their last eleven matches against each other, all played in leg format, MVG hasn’t won any of them by more than three legs. He rarely wins easily against the Northern Irishman and consistency, or shall we say lack of it, has been his main downfall in recent years. I don’t think he’s nearly consistent enough now to not drop a set here. Dolan to win a set but don’t be surprised if this match goes deep - it's a steal of a price at 2/5.
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