Darts Betting Tips: Noppy to make it three winners on the spin?

Wednesday's action at the Grand Slam of Darts sees the start of the last 16, with a quality line-up of matches for us to enjoy!

Betfred Insights' Darts expert, Sean Rafferty, is back with his darts betting tips for Wednesday's Grand Slam action and is hoping a boosted treble will make it three on the spin, following back-to-back winners. 

Danny Noppert to beat Mickey Mansell @ 1/3

Noppert has started this event very positively, winning all three matches against Greaves, Menzies and Schindler, which saw him top his group with maximum points. He went under the radar coming into this tournament, as always seems to be the case with Danny.

But the top half of the draw has really opened up with the exit of pre-tournament favourite Luke Humphries. Noppie will definitely be eyeing this up as a good opportunity to land his second major title now. He has a favourable tie in my opinion, against Mickey Mansell, who I’m sure would admit himself has probably already matched or exceeded his expectations for the week, coming through a tough group with brilliant wins over James Wade and Rowby-John Rodriguez. He also had to come through the Grand Slam qualifier last week just to make it to Wolverhampton, so anything he done at the event would’ve been seen as a bonus.

I think winning here would be a step too far to Mickey, he’s never had a good TV record and the occasion may just get the better of him here I reckon. Noppert averaged 95, 97 and 106 in his group matches, improving each game. If he finds similar numbers in this one then I’m sure he’ll win comfortably. They’ve played each other twice this year already, with a win apiece, however both of them were played on the Pro Tour where Mansell tends to play his better stuff.

1/3 is a tad on the skinny side but only one of these players has any pedigree in televised majors and that is Noppie, pretty confident he’ll get the job done with minimum fuss.

Ross Smith under 6.5 180s @ 4/7

Ross has slowly played himself into a bit of form this week - his first match was a shocker against Ritchie Edhouse, losing 5-1 with a 83 average. He then won an ugly match against Dave Chisnall 5-2 with a 89 average, doubles let him down there but scoring was better. Finally, he finished off with a more promising 5-0 win over Connor Scutt with a 97 average to qualify for the knockout stages.

I would’ve loved to have backed Lukeman in some form in this match but there’s a few factors for him in this one - he has very limited experience in the latter stages of major tournaments (QF’s of UK Open + World Grand Prix being his best efforts to date). Which leads to my other question mark on him, stamina arguably isn’t his strength, we’ve seen him get a bit hot and bothered on the Ally Pally stage before in longer format matches and also in Minehead at the UK Open when he reached that QF. He’s played solid so far and generally was throwing some decent stuff before this event, but his minimal experience in these circumstances puts me off.

Instead I’m going to focus on the 180s market - Smith hasn’t quite been hitting the maximums at the rate he’s capable of recently. He’s only managed five 180s in 18 legs so far this week, I can’t see this match having more than 18 legs in it so 7+ maximums feels like a big ask for Smudger, I’d be happy to oppose that with under 6.5 at 4/7. Over the last 12 months, he’s averaging 0.37 180s per leg so just over one every three legs, he’s not quite hitting that rate with them at the minute so unders is the route to take with Smith here.

Ritchie Edhouse over 4.5 180s @ 8/11

Edhouse is continuing the great form that saw him win the European Championship last month in a dream title win. He wasn’t at the races against Connor Scutt despite winning that one 5-2, but either side of that he beat Ross Smith 5-1 with a 104 average and Dave Chisnall 5-2 with a 105 average, which saw him top what looked like a very tough group. You’d think eventually this dreamy form has to come to an end for Madhouse but I think if anything the doubles would be his undoing, as opposed to the scoring where his strength lies.

It’s such a tough game to call. I think Edhouse may well have the upper hand in the scoring department but Cross can really hold it together on the doubles and I think that’s where the match could be won for him, he hit 5/6 doubles against Peter Wright last night despite playing poorly, so will look to repeat that finishing here.

As I think this is so evenly matched I’d rather bet on a market that focuses on one player only. Edhouse 180s have been a profitable route for me on the Euro Tour this year, where the majority of Ritchie’s best stuff has been produced. Over 4.5 180s for Edhouse looks more than a manageable target, he showed in the group stages when he’s in full flow that he can’t hit them in prolific fashion - he hit a staggering eight 180s in just 13 legs in his victories over Smith and Chisnall.

Over the past 12 months, Edhouse is averaging 0.27 180s per leg, a stat that is improving for him with every month that passes. This year he’ll be not too far off a rate of a 180 per every three legs, so hitting five in a match that I think could well have 17-19 legs in it is very doable and a generous price at 8/11.

Sean's chosen treble has been generously boosted from 5/2 to 3/1 at the time of publishing, which you can load direct to slip by clicking below.

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