Tour de France Stage 4 Predictions: Pogacar to pip Vingegaard on Galibier

It’s a big day for the yellow jersey contenders at the 2024 Tour de France on Tuesday as Stage 4’s 139.6km route between Pinerolo and Valloire throws the spotlight on big favourite Tadej Pogacar and two-time defending champion Jonas Vingegaard (live from 11:30 BST on Eurosport 1, 12:00 BST on ITV4).

There will be two notable climbs over Sestrieres and then the hors categorie Col du Galibier, which featured two years ago when Vingegaard made vital gains on Pogacar on his way to a first title. Will it be a key point of Le Tour once more? Here are my Tour de France Stage 4 predictions…

Tour de France Betting Odds

Pogacar is 2/1 to reign in Valloire, with Vingegaard 8/1. Remco Evenepoel is available at 12/1 and Tom Pidcock's 14/1 is the shortest price on any of the British riders. Derek Gee and Primoz Roglic are both 20/1.

Cycling Odds

It is 113 years since the first ascent of the Col du Galibier in Le Tour, and it has become one of the feature moments of any edition in which it has been used.

That last visit in 2022 saw the Galibier scaled twice on consecutive days, with the stage 11 battle on the way to the Col du Granon seeing Vingegaard drop reigning champion Pogacar. The following day, the Slovenian attempted a number of counter-attacks but just couldn’t shake his great rival as the Dane laid the platform for maillot jaune success.

This time around there is some pressure on Pogacar to put time between himself and Vingegaard given that many have been expecting the Visma-Lease a Bike man to show early weaknesses following his huge crash in the Itzulia Basque Country in April which threatened his participation around l’Hexagone.

After Monday's sprinters’ day, both should be relatively fresh following a tough couple of stages over the weekend, but if Pogacar is to launch a number of punchy attacks, that is where we will learn just how well recovered Vingegaard is from the punctured lung, broken collarbone and shattered ribs he suffered three months ago.

It is hard to really look beyond these two double-champions for success on stage four, with Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglic the most likely to challenge outside of the main duo. Evenepoel still has much to prove after his difficulties at last year’s Vuelta a Espana, while Roglic has looked a little short of his best over the first few days and would need a huge ride on Tuesday to keep up with Pogacar and Vingegaard.

Tadej Pogacar @ 2/1

I’m going for the 25-year-old to win this one. To me, the only question is whether he manages to properly distance Vingegaard.

He’s going to want to really lay down a marker as the race reaches France, but Vingegaard’s staying power is what has made a massive difference over the past two years.

The Dane is not likely to launch a big attack this early in the proceedings, so I’m thinking that Pogacar will win, even if it is by the narrowest of margins. The 2020 and 2021 king will be the one to set the pace, with Jonas just happy to hang on for the time being.

Whether or not Pogi can bridge a lasting lead is not the question when it comes to a stage four win, so I’m confident in him to take Tuesday’s honours and will worry about the size of his GC lead later. The 2/1 odds imply a 33.3% chance of victory for the Slovenian.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.