Tour de France Stage 21 Predictions: Don’t rule out a Groves double

The Tour de France reaches its finish in Paris on Sunday and race leader Tadej Pogacar will be on top of the podium in the French capital if he makes it to the finish line at the conclusion of Stage 21.

Read on for my Tour de France Stage 21 predictions.

Pogacar, the dominant GC performer in this year's Tour, maintained a four-minute, 24-second advantage over Jonas Vingegaard at the end of the penultimate stage from Nantua to Pontarlier, which was won by Kaden Groves.

The Peloton will roll out for the final time on Sunday for the closing stage, a 132.3km route from Mantes-la-Ville to the Champs-Elysees, which has been revamped for this year's edition of the race.

While the final stage is traditionally a procession which results in a sprint finish after several laps of the streets of the French capital, the 2025 route features three ascents of the Cote de la Butte Montmartre, the climb made famous in the Paris Olympics last year.

The short cobbled section could spell trouble for the sprinters, who will hope to cling on in a bid to contest the famous final metres on the Champs-Elysees.

Kaden Groves to win Stage 21 @ 12/1

The addition of the Cote de la Butte Montmartre makes for a fascinating ending to another superb Tour de France.

Previously, the finishing stage featured ambitious-but-doomed breakaways that would always be reeled in in the final kilometres by the sprinters' teams before the fast men contested a bunch sprint.

However, this year's edition is different, and the presence of this punchy climb could help bring a whole new style of rider to the fore.

Green jersey wearer Jonathan Milan, capable of getting over a climb such as this but with miles in his legs at the end of a gruelling three weeks, would be favourite should a sprint still materialise, but it's Stage 20 hero Kaden Groves who looks the most interesting contender.

The Australian notched a 10th Grand Tour stage win in Pontarlier on Saturday, and his first at Le Tour having originally lined up for the race in support of fellow speedster Jasper Philipsen, who won the first stage before abandoning with injury.

Groves, a sprinter who showed his ability to climb with his Stage 20 victory, might not have much left to give, but he will also be eager to seize his chance if his legs allow him to compete for another stage win.

Victor Campenaerts to win Stage 21 @ 33/1

A number of teams will be on a salvage mission and Visma–Lease a Bike will certainly be among them, even if Jonas Vingegaard is on course for an admirable second-placed GC finish.

Wout van Aert is expected to be their chief hope, but the Belgian is not the consistent force he once was and the Dutch team have other cards to play, including his compatriot Victor Campenaerts.

Campenaerts, second behind Tim Wellens in Carcassonne a week ago, could be freed from his duties as Vingegaard's domestique, and this revamped profile should suit his aggressive riding style.

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