Tour de France Stage 19 Prediction: Tad the lad for Plagne perfection

 | Thursday 24th July 2025, 19:14pm

Thursday 24th July 2025, 19:14pm

Tadej pogacar jonas vingegaard cycling

With five categorised climbs, two of them hors categorie ascents, the final day in the Alps promises to be an all-action affair. With just two stages to go after this - the second the processional run into Paris - this is the last opportunity for any riders to have a shot at shaking up the podium.

Stage 19, from Albertville to La Plagne, is the shortest road stage on this year's Tour at just 129.9km but what it lacks in length it's likely to make up for in action and drama. Check out my Tour de France Stage 19 Predictions below.

Tour De France Stage 19 Betting Tips - Friday, July 25

  • Tadej Pogacar win @ 1/1
  • Thymen Arensman win @ 33/1

Tadej Pogacar win @ 1/1

The problem with Stage 19 for anyone wanting to identify an unlikely winner is that the day in the saddle is almost certainly too short and too sharp to be anything other than a GC head to head.

The peloton will be climbing from the off with three big peaks scaled inside the first 60 kilometres so any early breakaway attempt is unlikely to be successful in such daunting terrain.

Tour de France Betting Odds

Jumbo Visma will attempt to be in control to lead out their man, Jonas Vingegaard, and to isolate Tadej Pogacar.

And Vingegaard will have to be brave, almost reckless, if he is to make a dent in the sublime Slovene's seemingly invincible advantage.

There is, however, the alternative view that neither Vingegaard nor Pogacar feel they have a stage win in them and aren't prepared to chase down any escapees.

Cycling Odds

But since this is the Dane's last chance to throw the kitchen sink at his great rival, it's most likely a showdown between the pair of them which Pogacar, on the form of the Tour thus far, should win.

Tour de France Stage 19 - Winner Tadej Pogacar

Odds correct at time of publishing.

Thymen Arensman win @ 33/1

If there is to be a break which stays away it's unlikely to figure any of those who expended so much energy up the Col de la Luz yesterday, the likes of Ben O'Connor, Einar Rubio or Florian Lipowitz.

And, of course, with podium places on the line, there is no chance of allowing top-10 aces like Oscar Onley, Primoz Roglic or Felix Gall a sniff of stage glory.

Thymen Arensman has already pulled off one memorable solo in this edition to win up to Superbagneres.

It was the biggest result of the Dutchman's career so far and confirmed what a fabulous climber the Ineos-Grenadiers rider has become.

The 25-year-old has been combative throughout the Tour having shown his credentials over the big hills in the spring when he came in second at the Tour of the Alps.

It's hard to imagine much other than a GC fight to the line but Arensman might try to shake it up.

Tour de France Stage 19 - Winner Thymen Arensman

Odds correct at time of publishing.

Cycling Betting Tips from Betfred Insights.

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