Tour de France Stage 15 Predictions: Matej and Wout the pair to watch

After a tough opening fortnight at the Tour de France, Thymen Arensman brought some joy to Ineos Grenadiers by winning a brutal stage 14 from Pau to the summit finish at Luchon-Superbagneres. On a miserable day that saw white jersey Remco Evenepoel abandon, Arensman soloed to victory as yellow jersey Tadej Pogacar came in second, easing away from Jonas Vingegaard in the final metres to add another six seconds to his lead over the Dane.

The third Sunday of the Tour is almost always a transitional day, and 2025 is no different, with the organisers looking to reward those who've battled through the Pyrenees with a chance to get in the breakaway on the lumpy 169.3km route from Muret to Carcassonne. With an early intermediate sprint and the final 40 or so kilometres running downhill to the finish, it might even be a day for the speedsters.

Cycling Odds

The Route

Stage 15 is a proper transitional day but may take a while to ignite with the intermediate sprint stationed at 59.8km before the first of two category three climbs.

The biggest bump of the day is the category two Pas du Sant but the route continues to rise after that summit, climbing to the top of the Col de Fontbruno, before the parcours tumbles down into the Medieval city of Carcassonne.

With a flat finish, expect Sunday to turn into a game of cat-and-mouse as the breakaway aims to hold off the sprinters' teams, although all involved will need to be vigilant due to the possibility of crosswinds.

Matej Mohoric to win @ 50/1

Bahrain Victorious have had a tough Tour, with Jack Haig crashing out in the first week and co-leader Santiago Buitrago way down at 63rd in the General Classification.

However, they could come to life in the final week or so and have a squad stacked with breakaway specialists.

After a strong outing on Saturday, polka dot jersey wearer Lenny Martinez is sure to keep featuring as he chases the mountains prize but his time could come in the Alps and Sunday looks like a day for Matej Mohoric.

The Slovene has won stages in all three Grand Tours, including at the Tour in 2021 and 2023.

Mohoric descends like a demon, and if he gets into the right position, has the talent to stay ahead of the pursuing pack.

Wout van Aert to win @ 6/1

Similarly, Wout van Aert also knows how to fly down a climb and has shown this Tour that he retains the speed that helped him win the green jersey in 2022.

With Visma–Lease a Bike leader Vingegaard unlikely to try and attack Pogacar in a bid to close his four-minute and 13-second deficit, a couple of his teammates might be allowed to get in the break.

He's had a rollercoaster few years and while he may never return to his previous best, the 30-year-old's good days are still excellent ones.

The ever-versatile Van Aert could either infiltrate the break and win the sprint, or lead the pack over the line if he's part of the chase.

'Wonderwout' has every chance of being in contention.

Cycling Betting Tips from Betfred Insights.