Tour de France Stage 12 Predictions: Vingegaard can deliver statement win

The Tour de France will make its first hors categorie ascent of this year's race as the peloton braces itself for the fearsome Hautacam on Thursday (13:10).

Read on for our Tour de France Stage 12 predictions.

After a week or so of sprints, cobbles, crashes and a few punchy hills, Stage 12 is where the yellow jersey contenders get to be seriously tested for the first time.

Tadej Pogacar and the rest enter the Pyrenees for the first time, with the last third of the 180km stage featuring a category one climb, a category two and finally the 13.5km ascent of the Hautacam to the finish.

Tour de France Stage 12 Odds 

Jonas Vingegaard to win @ 11/4

The Hautacam makes its return to the Tour de France and recent history tells us it could provide one of the most decisive moments of the three-week long race.

Three of the last five winners on the climb have gone on to claim the maillot jaune in Paris - Bjarne Riis in 1996, Vincenzo Nibali in 2014 and, critically, Jonas Vingegaard in 2022.

Three years ago Vingegaard and Pogacar reached the foot of the climb together, with other riders for company, but by the end of it the Dane had soloed off into the sunset after dropping his rival 4kms from the top to win by over a minute.

Pogacar never managed to get back on terms and, while this year he looks like a completely different animal, the Slovenian is still worth taking on to reach the summit finish first.

It's quite possible a breakaway succeeds - if not then it should be a head-to-head between Pogacar and Vingegaard.

There certainly looks nothing between them, the Dane only trailing the champion after shedding time on the time trial. Other than that there is little to choose between the two great rivals.

The defending champion has already won two relatively hilly stages this year and warmed up for the Tour by winning the Criterium, which included two mountain-stage triumphs in which he beat Vingegaard into second on both occasions.

But, and it's a big but, he has also lost his able lieutenant Joao Almeida which piles the pressure on Adam Yates and, if Vingegaard's power-packed Visma team can control the tempo and the attacks, their man definitely has the legs to win this, something he has done as recently as three years ago.

Thyman Arensman each-way @ 16/1

It's not beyond the realms of possibility that a breakaway comes off if only because this mountain stage is the first of the Tour, so there are plenty of legs left in the riders. Also, the GC contenders need to look at the bigger picture beyond Stage 12.

One man clearly riding well is Thyman Arensman, who stormed to a second-placed finish on Stage 10 up to Mont-Dore.

He is not a threat to the GC riders and having had one near-miss he has already articulated he fancies a dart at the Hautacam.

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