Tour de France Stage 11 Preview: Merlier might prove too good again

The 113th Tour de France returned from its first rest day with a bang as Tadej Pogacar won stage 10 to Le Lioran, extending his race lead to three minutes and 36 seconds.

Stage 11 should be a more sedate affair, as the peloton covers 161.3 km from Vichy to Nevers. With only two category four climbs to worry about, the expectation is that Wednesday will be decided by a sprint finish.

Tour de France Betting Odds

Tim Merlier leads the stage 11 betting at 4/5, ahead of Olav Kooij at 4/1.

Biniam Girmay is 6/1, with Jasper Philipsen 8/1 and Max Kanter 9/1.

Stage 11 route

Undulating days in the Central Massif have become a big part of the Tour de France and after chaos on stages nine and 10, those who have made it through may feel relieved when they study Wednesday's parcours.

This and Thursday's stages are among the easiest in the 2026 Tour, before the road starts to turn up again on Friday as the race reaches the Vosges mountains.

Race organiser Christian Prudhomme is perhaps optimistic in his preview notes on the Tour's official site, noting that any gap that a 'brave move' is allowed will be 'minimal', but that those riders should 'hope for a stroke of luck' to claim an unlikely victory.

The break will be allowed to go, yet those involved are expected to be there to gain time in front of the television cameras to appease their team's sponsors, rather than pursuing any realistic hopes of staying away.

A slow start is forecast, with the intermediate sprint just 20.9km into the stage. From there, the break should form, but their advantage will be decided by the peloton.

There are two category-four climbs: the Cote de Billonniere at 32.9km and the Cote de Billy-Chevannes at 123.4km, but neither should be any trouble; expect a dash to the line on the avenue bordering Nevers' exhibition centre.

Tim Merlier @ 4/5

Back-to-back stage wins on Friday and Saturday have marked Soudal–Quick-Step's Tim Merlier out as the best sprinter in this year's Tour.

Lidl-Trek's Mads Pedersen leads the points classification but the Dane's campaign has been built on a breakaway win and consistently decent finishes.

NSN Cycling Team's Biniam Girmay, the 2024 green jersey winner, has had a similar approach but Merlier is the man to beat if it comes down to a bunch sprint.

A series of DNFs helps explain why he has never won the points classification in five previous Grand Tour appearances, but the speed he showed in winning in Bordeaux and Bergerac makes him the likeliest victor in Nevers.

Cycling Odds

Jasper Philipsen @ 8/1

The noise coming from Alpecin–Premier Tech towards Jasper Philipsen has not been entirely positive, and the Belgian needs a win to appease his team and build his confidence.

Philipsen started 2026 poorly but came good in the spring classics, including a win in Gent-Wevelgem, before taking the overall victory at last month's Tour of Belgium.

Teammate Mathieu van der Poel's victory on stage nine eased the pressure on the team but Philipsen may still be feeling the strain after finishes of 5-5-4 in the three previous sprints.