Tour de France Stage 11 Predictions: Don’t doubt Wout

Ben Healy's brave ride on Monday meant he led the Tour de France heading into Tuesday's rest day and will wear yellow when the race resumes for Stage 11.

The Irishman may not have been able to claim his second stage victory of this year's race on Bastille Day, but his bravery was rewarded as he rode to the top of the general classification, with the EF Education-EasyPost man 29 seconds clear of Tadej Pogacar. Read on for my Tour de France Stage 11 predictions.

It was recent Giro d'Italia winner Simon Yates who won Stage 10 and, after being let off the leash, may now have to be more disciplined in supporting Visma-Lease a Bike leader Jonas Vingegaard.

After a well-deserved day off, the peloton returns on Wednesday for a 156.8km route around Toulouse.

Stage 11 is a relatively simple day but one that comes with accompanying anxiety, as the bunch prepares to head into the Pyrenees on Thursday.

The route

Monday's terrain suited Healy and Wednesday's sedate parcours means he should have no issues holding onto the maillot jaune before Thursday's first day in the Pyrenees.

The first 140 or so kilometres go by without a categorised climb before two late kickers in the last 16km.

That provides the potential for late solo attacks and 800m of 12.4% on the final rise means there might be some sprinters who don't make it should the peloton split.

Speed is still expected to win the day on the Boulevard Lascrosses and those that get over that final bump will all be in the mix.

Wout van Aert to win Stage 11 @ 6/1

Alpecin–Deceuninck's Mathieu van der Poel leads the market at 5/1, but may still be feeling the effects of his near miss in almost soloing to victory on Sunday.

After Yates' success on Monday, Van der Poel's great rival Wout van Aert is another Jumbo rider who might be given freedom before riding in support of Vingegaard in the mountains.

The Belgian went close in the sprint on Saturday, reminding us of the speed that helped him win the green jersey in 2022.

Stage 11's profile lends itself to Van Aert. He could attack off the final climbs and look to go solo, or wait for the sprint, giving him multiple options in his quest for a first win at the Tour since 2022.

Jonathan Milan to win Stage 11 @ 14/1

Green jersey wearer Jonathan Milan is among the best of the sprinters when it comes to getting over climbs and might feel he has an edge over Soudal-Quick-Step's Tim Merlier.

Merlier has won on both days the pair have gone wheel-to-wheel, but he may not make it over the last climb in time to contest the sprint.

A mechanical problem possibly cost Merlier on Saturday when Milan won in Laval, but the Italian was so dominant in winning that sprint that the Lidl-Trek man should still be confident if days come down to a late dash.

The 24-year-old won the points classification at the Giro in both 2023 and 2024 and a big result on Wednesday will go a long way to securing his place at the top of the green jersey standings.

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