Tour de France Stage 1 Predictions: Tactics at the ready in Barcelona TTT

The 2026 Tour de France has a start like no other – at least, no other since 1971 – with a team time-trial set as the 19.6km Grand Depart in Barcelona on Saturday (live from 3:30pm BST on TNT Sports 1, highlights from 7pm on Channel 5). 

This year’s Stage 1 mimics 2023’s La Vuelta a Espana, which started with a trip around the same city, but with some notable differences in terms of classifications. My Tour de France Stage 11 predictions follow below.

Tour de France Betting Odds

Netcompany INEOS lead the betting as evens favourites, while Tadej Pogacar’s UAE Team Emirates-XRG are 7/2.

Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe are the other fancied team for the opening victory at 9/2.

Cycling Odds

There’s a real twist in this TTT, with the time recorded being very different to the normal process. Rather than the whole team being logged by the fourth or fifth rider home, it is the first across the line whose time will count for the purposes of the stage placings.

And, when it comes to the GC, each competitor’s own time is counted separately. This means there are likely to be early differentials in the yellow-jersey race that we wouldn’t previously have experienced in team time-trials.

Who does this favour? Well, it should still largely be good news for those squads which have good time-trial specialists in their ranks. INEOS have the likes of Filippo Ganna, Josh Tarling and Tobias Foss, whose TT specialty could see them dovetail perfectly to claim the win.

But what about the likes of Remco Evenepoel at Red Bull? He’s the Olympic TT champion and the logging of the team leader’s time could see him break up the road over the hilly final stages on the back of some more traditional time-trialling along with team-mate Mattia Cattaneo.

There really are a number of tactical approaches that we could see taking place on Saturday afternoon.

Netcompany INEOS @ EVENS

I’m very tempted by the thought of Evenepoel jumping off from a great platform to then ride away from the rest of his team up the Col de Montjuic.

He has a bit of a point to prove, and it would be just like Remco to grab the opportunity to do so with two hands.

Then there’s Pogacar, who has so many strings to his bow coming into his attempt at a record-equalling fifth Tour de France crown. Could he and Brandon McNulty cook up the perfect assault to win the stage for UAE?

Visma Lease-a-Bike would have been far more fancied for this opener had Wout van Aert made it to the start line, but without him it will be on team leader Jonas Vingegaard to stick to the wheel of Edoardo Affini or Victor Campenaerts and then make his move up the picturesque Catalunyan climb to the Olympic Stadium.

But what INEOS have is a TT-laden group. Between Ganna, Tarling and Foss, they have a fabulous three-pronged attack which could well stay the course as a unit all the way to the line.

And while there is clear individual brilliance in greater number on other teams, the more traditional TTT aesthetic might just see INEOS pick up the fastest time in Stage 1.