La Vuelta Stage 13 Predictions: Will 16/1 Woods take the headlines from Roglic?

There have been a whole host of tough days, a big batch of unpredictable days and some downright chaotic days in this year’s La Vuelta a Espana. But Friday’s Stage 13 is set to be the most pivotal action yet in this dramatic race (live on Eurosport 1 from 13:30 BST, highlights at 20:00).

The 176km between Lugo and Puerto de Ancares are perfectly set up to have a big say in the General Classification battle which is currently headed by Ben O’Connor and Primoz Roglic but could yet see others have a dig. Here are my La Vuelta Stage 13 predictions.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

Enric Mas has competed for stage wins in two of the toughest mountain stages so far, Stage 4 into Pico Villuercas and Stage 8 to Cazorla, and Betfred have him as the favourite to post a second career win at La Vuelta to follow his epic success on the line over Miguel Angel Lopez in Andorra back in 2018.

Movistar’s Mas is the 11/4 favourite, with Primoz Roglic just behind him on 7/2. Mikel Landa and Michael Woods are 14/1 and 16/1 respectively, with Stage 11 winner Eddie Dunbar and Jack Haig both 18/1.

Cycling Odds

Just when you thought you’d seen all the surprises you could in a single tour, invitee team Equipo Kern Pharma took the win on Thursday as Pablo Castrillo went solo from the breakaway late on and just about hung on as Max Poole left it just too late to beat the Spaniard to the line.

Stage 13, though, is such a classic high-mountain stage that surely it will be those in the mix for the GC who will fight it out. Right?

Well, the early Cat 3 climb up the Alto Campo de Arbre (5km at 5.8%) won’t be the one that splits the field entirely but it may encourage some escapees to go up ahead all the same.

The next ascent is up the Alto O Portelo, a category-two 7.7km rise at 5.4%, and by the time they come down the other side of that the stage will still not be even half-way done.

There’s an uncategorised peak which comes around 45km from home, then after an intermediate sprint the going gets tough once more. With 27km to go, the riders take on the Cat 2 Puerto de Lumeras, which lasts at 6.6km at 6%.

That is all the appetiser ahead of the main course though, with the Cat 1 Puerto de Ancares coming in the last 7.5km of the stage. It’s a 9.3% average gradient up to the top, but that rises to around 12% over the final 5km and there are ramps of 15% as they get closer to the finish line.

Primoz Roglic @ 7/2

I think this could be Roglic’s day. I might be wrong, I have been before in this epic La Vuelta – we all have! – but the Slovenian has been smart enough about when he has and hasn’t bitten in to Ben O’Connor’s lead in recent days.

His 3:16 deficit is entirely down to a huge miscalculation on Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe’s part on Stage 6, but the rest of the race so far has suggested that it is antepost choice Roglic who has it in him to take the red jersey in Madrid.

And it is because of stages like Friday’s that he is the 11/10 favourite in the outright betting. He ought to be the outstanding competitor when the legs are getting tired in the peloton over the final couple of climbs, and he could well be the one leading the way up the damaging Cat 1 which takes us home.

Michael Woods E/W @ 16/1

If anyone can get out in front on a breakaway and make the attack stick over the Puerto de Ancares, I don’t see why that can’t be Woods.

His two previous wins in this event came firstly on a similar stage over 157km to Balcon de Bizkaia in 2018, going solo over the final 500 metres over a 9.8% stage-ending Cat 1 climb, then two years later when outstripping the remainder of a hefty breakaway group to win in Villanueva de Valdegovia.

And then there was his epic Tour de France win last year up the Puy de Dome, a 12.6km climb at 7.8% with beastly ramps over the last 5km.

There are just so many similarities between Friday’s parcours and the best days of the Canadian’s Grand Tour career. I can’t ignore that, especially as the 16/1 odds imply a 5.9% win probability. He’s a bigger threat than that.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.