Yabuki vs Alvarado Predictions: The late bloomers host Boxing Day on the 27th

Masamichi Yabuki makes the first defence of his IBF flyweight title this Saturday, December 27 against Felix Alvarado. The fight takes place at the Aichi Sky Expo, Tokoname, Japan. There is no UK or US broadcast deal in place at press time. 

Read on for my Yabuki vs Alvarado predictions.

Yabuki vs Alvarado Odds

Yabuki is 2/11 to win this post-Boxing Day box-off. Alvarado is priced at 9/2 to leave with the gold. The draw is marketed at 16/1.  

Yabuki vs Alvarado Fight Preview

Pro boxing is a festive tradition in Japan. Pound-for-pound great Naoya Inoue is often found fighting within a day or two of Christmas day. ‘Kaibutsu’ is resuming the custom this year, but not in his homeland. Which is why, while Inoue tackles David Picasso in Saudi Arabia, IBF flyweight king Yabuki is carrying the baton in Japan.

At the age of 33, stardom has found Yabuki late in an uneven nine-year existence in the pro ring. Losing on points in a four-rounder to Junto Nakatani, now a three-weight world champion who is fighting Saturday as part of his collision course with Inoue, was an unfortunate quirk of timing. A first-round knockout loss to future world title challenger Sergi Yuri Akui was less forgivable.

Yabuki would lose again, to ranked contender Daniel Matellon, before shocking the world. In March 2022, Yabuki knocked out the great Kenshiro Teraji, who aims for a world title at a third weight in Riyadh, in 10 rounds. The victory saw Yabuki realise his dream, becoming WBC light flyweight world champion. A three-round KO loss in the rematch was a harsh reality check, however.

But Yabuki was not done at the top level. Three post-Teraji wins scored him a crack at IBF light flyweight champion Sivenathi Nontshinga. The hard-punching challenger unseated the champion in nine rounds. With momentum on his side, Yabuki then became a three-time world champion with a last-round KO of WBC flyweight kingpin Angel Ayala Lardizabal in March.

Talk about a late bloomer. The 33-year-old has hit career-best form at an age where many lower-weight fighters are fading. Yabuki has always taken on all comers, often to his detriment. But the Suzuka-born boxer has taken the lessons from his harsh early-career punishment. Now school is in session for Yabuki’s opponents.

The next student is a former world champion in his own right. Alvarado and Yabuki might like to sit down and exchange war stories after Saturday’s hostilities. Alvarado himself was something of a late bloomer. The Nicaraguan lost two world title fights before clinching the IBF light flyweight belt in 2018. 

Alvarado defended his belt successfully twice before heading up to super flyweight. Sutton’s Sunny Edwards was too much for him in an IBF title challenge in 2022. Lardizabal then beat him two fights later. But after three wins in moderate company, ‘El Gemelo’ gets his fifth crack at a world title. Somebody up there likes Alvarado.

At the age of 36, surely a defeat will spell the end for Alvarado’s world title ambitions. While both Felix and Yabuki are a testament to the resilience of the pro boxer as a species, the well of opportunity must some day run dry. But with the eyes of the boxing world once again on Saudi, do not count out either of these men. People have tried that with these two before.

Yabuki vs Alvarado Full Card

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Yabuki vs Alvarado Prediction

Yabuki’s chin is not his best trait and Alvarado’s 83% knockout ratio is no joke. Don’t be surprised to see the champion take a trip to the canvas in this one. But I am not sure Alvarado, at the age of 36 and with a career of hard fights on his mileage clock, will be able to press the issue. I still think Yabuki beats him at 2/11.

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