Wilson vs Santana Predictions: ‘Mr Damage’ has one eye on world titles

World-ranked super featherweight Liam Wilson takes to the ring against Jorge Santana this Thursday, September 18. The bout takes place at the Pat Rafter Arena in Brisbane, Australia. The event is yet to find a UK broadcaster, but does go out on Main Event on Kayo Sports PPV in Australia. 

Here are my Wilson vs Santana predictions.

Wilson vs Santana Odds

Wilson is a big favourite at 1/14 while his opponent comes in at 17/2. The draw is priced at 18/1.

Wilson vs Santana Fight Preview

Wilson is in danger of becoming one of boxing’s nearly men. Twice, the Queenslander has competed for versions of the world championship. Both times, Wilson has come away empty-handed.

Wilson shocked those who had written him off when fighting the fearsome Emanuel Navarrete in 2023 for the vacant WBO super featherweight title. The Queenslander knocked the dominant champion down in round four of their thrilling contest. There was controversy surrounding the moment, when Navarrete spat his mouthpiece out leading to a 27-second delay in the action. 

But the favourite recovered to finish Wilson in the ninth round. Even then, he had to endure some tough moments against the Aussie in the sixth round.  There were calls for a rematch, but Navarrete moved on to a title defence against Oscar Valdez instead.

That very same foe would stand across the ring from Wilson in his next title tilt. After winning a pair of post-Navarrete at home in Australia, ‘Mr Damage’ went back to Arizona to face Valdez. The WBO interim title fight would be staged at the same Desert Diamond Arena that played host to the Navarrete defeat.

Wilson’s dreams once again ended prematurely, with Valdez stopping him in round seven. This time, there was no controversy over the result. Veteran Valdez pounded his man into a clear and obvious stoppage. Back to the drawing board.

Wilson has fought his way back into the world reckoning with three wins back home in Australia. A wild and bitter feud with Youssef Dib saw Liam emerge a 2-0 victor, with one stoppage followed by an intense unanimous decision. A points win over fringe contender Ayrton Gimenez bumped Wilson further up the rankings to his current top-four slot with the WBO.

Wilson’s opponent for this assignment is 24-year-old Dominican Santana. 15-1 with nine knockouts, he is a little under-cooked in experience terms. Most of Santana’s action has come in eight-rounders, with just two bouts above that distance.

A 2023 split points loss to Luis Arias, 4-2 at the time and only 9-5-1 now, is a cause for concern. But such vulnerability is probably what got Santana in the door here. Sometimes question marks are the element that creates opportunities in boxing. While other sports require you to excel to move up, often in the fight game a perceived deficiency is what gets you into the ring against a more accomplished foe.

Can Santana take advantage of the opportunity? That remains to be seen. But if Wilson cannot emerge victorious here, then any ambitions of a further world title chance go out of the window.

Wilson vs Santana Full Card

Liam Paro vs David Papot

Liam Wilson vs Jorge Santana

Ken Aitken vs Sonny Knight

Jacob Ng vs Rikki Naito

Floyd Masson vs Johan Linde

Dharringarra Trewhella vs Lachlan O'Shea

Danny Keating vs Sachin Nautiyal

Matthew Hosking vs Lance McDonald

Wilson vs Santana Prediction

Wilson should be in control of this one. Santana has a reasonable punch at a level, but Wilson has only been stopped by top-tier opponents.

Santana is yet to prove he is one such fighter. I am not convinced he ever will. For that reason, I’m picking Wilson to win at 1/14.

You can find all our latest boxing betting tips and analysis at our Betfred Insights Boxing page and our latest boxing odds here.