Usmonov vs Hughes Predictions: Once more into the breach for ‘Maximus’

World Amateur Championships bronze medalist Bakhodur Usmonov takes on Maxi Hughes on Friday, December 12. The WBA lightweight title eliminator serves as chief support for Kubrat Pulev vs Murat Gassiev at the Duty Free Tennis Arena in Dubai. The card will air live on the IBA Boxing YouTube channel.

Keep reading for my Usmonov vs Hughes predictions.

Usmonov vs Hughes Odds

Hughes is used to underdog status. 'Maximus' is priced at 11/4 for his latest tough assignment. Usmonov is 3/10 while the draw is 18/1.

Usmonov vs Hughes Fight Preview

Hughes is one of the unsung heroes of British boxing, a born underdog who has confounded the odds more times than one can count. 

A points loss to Liam Walsh in 2019 was the fifth defeat of Hughes’ career. ‘Maximus’ had lost twice in British title challenges and sported a 19-5-2 record that never quite reflected his effort and application. Close fights had gone against him at at times, like a draw with Martin J. Ward that necessitated two lost rematches. At other times, Hughes simply came up short, such as when Sam Bowen knocked him down twice and wreaked a horrible eye injury upon him in an eighth-round stoppage defeat. 

But an upset win over unbeaten Jono Carroll in 2020 offered light at the end of the tunnel. Two fights later he knocked out Paul Hyland Jr to lift that elusive British championship at the third time of asking. 

Yet Hughes still found himself written off when the lights were on bright. Jovanni Straffon returned to the UK to defend the IBO lightweight title he had won for destroying James Tennyson in a round. Many viewed the fight as a showcase for the Mexican. But Hughes did not give him a round, winning the belt via dominant decision at Headingley in 2021.

That win lit the touchpaper and Hughes has been a fringe world level concern ever since. Successful defences against Ryan Walsh and former world champion Kid Galahad set up a fight with George Kambosos Jr. The Aussie had only recently lost his unified lightweight title to Devin Haney. It was a huge chance for ‘Maximus’ to impress on the world stage.

The scorecards reflect a victory for ‘Ferocious’ Kambosos. But the eye test showed something else. Most observers felt Maxi had done more than enough to defeat his rival from Down Under. Denied a career-defining win, Hughes went searching for another in the wrong place. William Zepeda KO’ed the Yorkshireman in four rounds in his next outing.

After a keep-busy win over a journeyman opponent, Hughes took on Gary Cully. The fight was even with Betfred, who had a 10/11 price on each man to win. But Hughes won every round, proving he had plenty left in the tank even after some tough wars in his career.

A victory over 25-1 Archie Sharp, a former WBO number-one at super featherweight, has kept Hughes’ lofty place in the world rankings safe. Now Usmonov makes the big step up to try and take it from him.

A Tajikistan Olympian and with Asian and World Championship medals in his back pocket, Usmonov is making his way in the pro game. The 27-year-old is 11-0 with five knockouts. The level of competition has been as moderate as one would expect. Fringe contender Albert Pagora is probably the best of the punch. Usmonov was impressive against the Filipino boxer, stopping him in three rounds. 

There are also two ‘IBA Pro’ wins on his record, both against debutants. These fights occupy a grey area, with the IBA saying that the bouts allow for quality match-making without the stigma of a loss appearing on a fighter’s ledger. If that sounds like self-defeating nonsense to you then you’re not alone.

This is a big step-up in class for Usmonov and it is exhilarating to see him take it. Hughes’ 29-7-2 record is deceptive and, as Sharp and Cully found out, he remains extremely dangerous. ‘Maximus’ heads to Dubai with conquering on his mind.

Usmonov vs Hughes Full Card

Kubrat Pulev vs Murat Gassiev

Bakhodur Usmonov vs Maxi Hughes

Vadim Musaev vs Tulani Mbenge

Khariton Agrba vs Ruben Nestor Neri Munoz

Faizan Anwar vs Khuseyn Baysangurov

Dave Penalosa vs Daud Alaev

Yoel Finol vs Shakhobidin Zoirov

Stanley Wright vs Artem Suslenkov

Samuel Carmona vs Immanuel Josef

Estelle Mossely vs Ellen Simwaka

Nico Ali Walsh vs Jeremiah Sserwadda

David Dzukaev vs Madiyar Saydrakhimov

Usmonov vs Hughes Prediction

Usmonov is technically efficient. A tidy fighter who marries an educated jab with good head movement. It is a style adapted from the amateurs, but the 27-year-old avoids the head-hunting pitfalls of that style. Usmonov aims jabs to the body to control range and has been known to find an opponent’s ribs when he opens up with combinations.

Hughes jabs his way inside from a southpaw stance and looks to set the pace of a fight with focused raids. The Brit rarely gives his opponent a rest, relentlessly plugging away for 12 rounds if he has to. Hughes will not be compliant on Friday night.

You never quite know where a prospect’s ceiling lays until you see them endure some real pressure. Usmonov will come up against that on Friday night. I think his technical strengths will just about see him through against the always-game Hughes. I’m taking Usmonov at 3/10.

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