Tsutsumi vs Donaire Predictions: Can ‘Filipino Flash’ make history again?

WBA bantamweight champion Seiya Tsutsumi defends his title against the legendary Nonito Donaire on Wednesday, December 17. The championship 12-rounder takes place at the Kokugikan Arena in Tokyo, Japan. At press time, no UK television coverage had been announced.

Read on for my Tsutsumi vs Donaire predictions.

Tsutsumi vs Donaire Odds

Champion Tsutsumi is a firm favourite at 2/7. Donaire is looking to defy the ravages of age once again at 3/1. The draw is priced at 14/1. It is worth noting that Tsutsumi has three draws on his record…

Tsutsumi vs Donaire Fight Preview

Donaire holds the record as the oldest boxer to win a bantamweight world title. ‘The Filipino Flash’ was 38 when he won the WBC crown from Nordine Oubaali in 2021. Donaire has somewhat cornered this market, with that victory actually breaking a record he had set himself, when he stopped IBF champion Ryan Burnett at Glasgow’s Hydro aged 36. The last non-Nonito to serve as the bantamweight Methuselah was Gerry Penalosa back in 2007.

It has been a complicated road to get to this fight. Donaire comes in as WBA interim champion, with the black-and-gold brand taking the rare step of actually consolidating one of their titles. But Tsutsumi was stripped of his title earlier this year, when injuries sustained in a bruising draw with Daigo Higa prevented a mandatory defence against previous interim ruler Antonio Vargas.

Vargas was upgraded to champion proper, with Tsutsumi handed ‘champion in recess’ status, which effectively entitles the bearer to a title shot upon their return. Vargas then had his own draw with Higa, who retired after another close-but-no-cigar stalemate. Due to the passing of his mother, Vargas was unable to honour his mandatory defence. Rather than upgrade interim champ Donaire, they gave the now-ready Tsutsumi his belt back and told them to fight each other. We are one Vargas run-in holding a folding chair away from this becoming the WWE.

With the admin excitement out of the way, let’s dig into this as a fight. Tsutsumi won the title on points against Takuma Inoue, the brother of pound-for-pound star Naoya. Takuma has since beaten Tenshin Nasukawa to lift the WBC bantamweight crown, which shows how good Tsutsumi is.

In his last outing, Higa pushed him hard in one of the most ferocious fights of the year. The pocket rockets had previous, having pounded out another draw back in 2020. This one was even better. The ninth round saw Tsutsumi hit the deck with just over a minute remaining, only to second Higa down heavily seconds later. A furious race to the bell saw Higa look ready for the towel to come in. But the mighty warriors each held on for three more rounds of savagery before they each had their hand raised.

Donaire knows a thing or two about war. Until this past September, the 43-year-old from the Philippines was the last man to take Naoya Inoue the distance. ‘Kaibutsu’ scored 11 straight knockouts after his 2019 Fight of the Year with Donaire. Admittedly, one of those 11 finishes came at the expense of Donaire, who was vanquished in two rounds of a rematch.

That loss led many to assume we had seen the last of the icon. After all, what was there left to prove? A four-weight world champion. Only the sixth fighter in boxing history to win world titles in three different decades. Wins over legends like Vic Darchinyan, Jorge Arce, Toshiaki Nishioka, Wilfredo Vazquez Jr, Omar Narvaez and Fernando Montiel. Unforgettable performances in defeat to great champions like Inoue, Guillermo Rigondeaux and Carl Frampton. If ever a boxing career was the total package, it was Donaire’s.

But you do not reach 51 fights, 28 for a version of the world title, without being a tried-and-true warrior. So Donaire relaunched his campaign. The future Hall of Famer lost out to Alexandro Santiago for the vacant WBC belt, before steadying the ship with a nine-round technical decision win to claim the WBA interim belt against Andres Campos in June.

Time waits for no man, but Nonito has convinced it to circle the block a few extra times. At the age of 43, can Donaire secure a victory that would make him the oldest active world champion in boxing? Can Tsutsumi hold the throne in the face of the ‘Filipino Flash’? That, my friends, is why we have the fights.

Tsutsumi vs Donaire Full Card

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Seiya Tsutsumi vs Nonito Donaire

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Tsutsumi vs Donaire Prediction

Tsutsumi loves a firefight. I think that strategy is exactly what Donaire will be hoping for. A situation where he can rely on his fists and not his footwork is an immeasurable help to the 43-year-old. The last thing you lose is your punch, after all.

But Tsutsumi knows how to turn the heat all the way up. His recent outings have been so fast and furious that Vin Diesel tried to land a car in the ring. Donaire is still formidable in middle age, but he does not have 12 rounds at the pace Tsutsumi set against Inoue and Higa left in him. 

I’ll take Tsutsumi to overwhelm the legend and stop him at 9/5.

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