Tsutsumi vs Ashfaq Predictions: Beleaguered Brit thrown into the eye of the storm

World-ranked Japanese prospect Hayato Tsutsumi is the mountain Qais Ashfaq is aiming to climb this Saturday, August 16. The bout takes place at the ANB Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The fight features on the undercard has 20-year-old KO specialist Moses Itauma taking on two-time world title challenger Dillian Whyte. DAZN PPV will offer the event live.

Here are my Hayato Tsutsumi vs Qais Ashfaq predictions ahead of this super featherweight contest.

Hayato Tsutsumi vs Qais Ashfaq Odds

There is no straight Tsutsumi win market for this one. Ashfaq is 22/1 to pull off the victory, for a 4.1% perceived probability of success. The draw, which in boxing betting is normally far more remote than even the underdog winning, is only priced at 25/1.

Hayato Tsutsumi vs Qais Ashfaq Fight Preview

You have to feel for Ashfaq. Two years ago he was narrowly beaten on a majority points decision by Liam Dillon for the British championship. Here in 2025, the 32-year-old is staring down the barrel of a Tsutsumi, who is so heavily-favoured to win that we aren’t even taking money on him unless you pick an outcome. The Japanese fighter is 10/3 for points or 1/5 for a knockout at press time.

Fists come at you fast too. That happening too often is usually the reason for a fall such as Ashfaq’s. From duking it out on level terms for the Lord Lonsdale belt to a position as the fall guy for Tsutsumi, a fearsome fighter who is beginning to turn heads. Both figuratively among us outside of the ring and literally when cracking his fists into those within it. 

A 2016 Youth World Championships gold medalist as an amateur, Tsutsumi is 7-0 as a professional with four knockouts. Already ranked 10th with the IBF at super featherweight, this 26-year-old is going places.

Tsutsumi’s world ranking may be a tad lofty at the present time, but he has tested himself against better fodder than a lot of novices. The Japanese star is one of only two men to knock out ex-WBA kingpin Rene Alvarado, wiping out the Nicaraguan in eight rounds. Anselmo Moreno is on the slide, but stopping the longest reigning bantamweight champion of all time in just your fifth pro fight takes some doing. Tsutsumi missed weight, but did not miss his opponent, pounding ‘Chemito’ out in three rounds.

Ashfaq has accomplished less than some of Tsutsumi’s victims. But perhaps the Leeds boxer has more hunger than any of them. While his opponent’s best foes had their greatest accomplishments in their rearview mirror, Ashfaq is fighting to prove he deserves title gold on his mantle.

Those championships are unlikely to be of the world variety, but surely after pushing Dillon to the limit Ashfaq must fancy another crack at the British belt. Perhaps even a Commonwealth title chance.

But accepting this fight, while a testament to his bravery, also gives the air of a man who has accepted “opponent” as his place in the pecking order. 

That theory was lent credence when, following the Dillon loss, Ashfaq suffered a chastening knockout at the fists of Masood Abdulah in five rounds. Out-scoring journeyman Jayro Duran in six rounds a year ago was great for the confidence I’m sure, but little else. A draw with Levi Giles, a fellow British title challenger, also felt like a missed chance.

And thus Ashfaq is being flown to Saudi for one reason and one reason only. The Yorkshireman is being offered up as a sacrificial lamb to one of boxing’s emerging talents. A recognisable face for the British fans who will flock to the pay-per-view to see Itauma vs Whyte. Coldly, Qais Ashfaq is in attendance as little more than a tick in the win column for Hayato Tsutsumi.

Hayato Tsutsumi vs Qais Ashfaq Full Card

Moses Itauma vs Dillian Whyte

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Raymond Ford vs Abraham Nova

Mohammed Alakel vs Yumnam Santosh Singh

Hayato Tsutsumi vs Qais Ashfaq

Hayato Tsutsumi vs Qais Ashfaq Prediction

If you really, passionately wanted to argue for an Ashfaq win you would point out that this is Tsutsumi’s first fight outside of Japan. But this is also Ashfaq’s first bout away from Britain. 

You might point to the Leeds man’s 101 pro rounds to Tsutsumi’s meagre 45. But when part of the reason for the 26-year-old’s lesser ring time is his stoppage wins over fighters better than those Ashfaq has beaten, it rings hollow.

Perhaps you would be tempted to point out how Ashfaq is a southpaw, a stance Tsutsumi has only faced once. But Hayato knocked that leftie, Moreno, out in three rounds. That beaten southpaw is a record-setting world champion. 

So there is very little argument left to be made for the Brit unfortunately. So much so that our Bout Winner market only offers Ashfaq as an option. My predicted victor is Tsutsumi by knockout and I think it is quick. Let’s go for the favourite in rounds 1-3 for some value at 19/10.

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