Teofimo Lopez vs Arnold Barboza Jr Predictions: ‘The Takeover’ comes home to NYC

WBO super lightweight champion Teofimo Lopez makes the third defence of his title against interim champion Arnold Barboza Jr. The bout takes place on the mammoth Times Square card in New York on Friday, May 2. Ryan Garcia tops the bill against Rolando Romero while Devin Haney takes on Jose Carlos Ramirez. DAZN PPV will screen this bumper event.

Here are my Teofimo Lopez vs Arnold Barboza Jr. predictions ahead of this world title attraction.

Teofimo Lopez vs Arnold Barboza Jr. Odds

Lopez is 4/11 to triumph while the challenger, Barboza, is available at 9/4. The draw is priced at 16/1.

Teofimo Lopez vs Arnold Barboza Jr. Fight Preview

British fight fans will know these as the men who conquered the component parts of the great recent super lightweight rivalry in this country. Lopez outscored Josh Taylor to take his WBO, The Ring and lineal championships. Meanwhile, Barboza upset Jack Catterall via split decision in his Manchester backyard to take the WBO interim belt and earn this shot.

With this country being denied their seat at the top table of the division, at least until WBC mandatory Dalton Smith takes his shot at champion Alberto Puello, Lopez and Barboza fight it out in the ruins of the British empire. Unbeaten challenger meets enigmatic champion. 

This battle can be categorised as slow and steady against too much, too soon. Barboza has crafted his path to the title at a glacial pace, going unbeaten as a professional throughout a 13 career and finally securing a title opportunity at the age of 33. 

Lopez was a much-ballyhooed prospect and a fast-mover. ‘The Takeover’ was just 23 years of age when he shocked the world and beat pound-for-pound star Vasiliy Lomachenko to unify his IBF lightweight title with the Ukrainian’s WBA, WBO and The Ring straps.

The win was meant to propel the Brookylnite to super-stardom. But then Australian hero George Kambosos Jr. relieved him of his belts, and his ‘0’, in a stunning display. The fact ‘Ferocious’ has never matched that lighting-in-a-bottle display since reflects poorly on Lopez.

Wins over Pedro Campa and Sandor Martin put him back on an even-keel, even if he did not dazzle. But Lopez confirmed his status as a fighter who rises to the biggest challenges when dethroning the division’s true champion, Taylor, with a measured display.

Jamaine Ortiz and Steve Claggett have been beaten on points in his subsequent defences. But you still get the sense ‘The Takeover’ is holding something back. That he has waited for a stage worthy of his talents, like Lomachenko and Taylor provided. Lopez would not be the first fighter who struggles to get up for anything less than the super-fights.

The stage elevates this bout. Perhaps this defence would not put fire in Lopez’s belly were it in Las Vegas, Riyadh or another fight capital. But Lopez is a proud New Yorker and Times Square is as iconic as they come. We should see the best of the man who calls himself ‘El Brooklyn’ here.

Aiming to stifle that quality is Barboza. The Californian has taken a long road to get here. He has been successful, but never undeniable. His 32-0 record features just 11 knockouts. Barboza is a smart tactician, as he proved when taking a decision off Catterall on his opponent’s home soil. But that style does not shift tickets and pay-per-views. There is a reason Barboza had to win an interim title in a foreign land to secure his title shot. The 33-year-old had to make it legally binding that he fought for this WBO belt.

Both men have earned their place on this stage the hard way. Tough fights. Thankless tasks. Hurdles in the road. But Times Square will stop for them on Friday night. It is what they do with the spotlight that matters.

Teofimo Lopez vs Arnold Barboza Jr. Full Card

Ryan Garcia vs. Rolando "Rolly" Romero

Devin Haney vs. Jose Ramirez

Teofimo Lopez Jr. vs. Arnold Barboza Jr.

Levale Whittington vs. Reito Tsutsumi

Teofimo Lopez vs Arnold Barboza Jr. Predictions

Lopez is in a quandary. Barboza is hard to look good against and even harder to beat. But with the hometown lights on bright, he will be determined to impress. Barboza has waited for this chance and is skilled enough to make this very, very difficult. 

Lopez will have to be on his game and punch-perfect. He is a fighter who exhilarates at his best and is confounding at his worst. The former Teofimo beats this guy, the latter flames out in a blaze of regret. 

I am going to back the best Lopez to show up. Something about this Brooklyn boy will relish the unique New York setting. Barboza is good and there is a world in which he wins this. But I think if Lopez delivers the performance we know he has in him, he wins a decision at 5/6.

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