Shakur Stevenson vs William Zepeda Predictions: Stevenson needs a fight like this

WBC lightweight champion Shakur Stevenson makes the third defence of his title on Saturday, July 12 as he faces unbeaten Mexican William Zepeda. The fight takes place at the Louis Armstrong Stadium in Queens, New York. DAZN will broadcast the event live on pay-per-view with Edgar Berlanga vs Hamzah Sheeraz in the main event.

Here are my Shakur Stevenson vs William Zepeda predictions ahead of this lightweight showdown.

Shakur Stevenson vs William Zepeda Odds

The WBC champion is 1/12 to get the job done here. Zepeda is 15/2 to upset Stevenson. A stalemate is priced at 18/1.

Shakur Stevenson vs William Zepeda Fight Preview

Stevenson needs a fight like this. Back in 2021, I tipped the then-two-weight world champion for the pound-for-pound list. Four years on, Stevenson is now a three-weight titlist. He still hasn’t lost. But, due to is level of opposition, there is no consensus on his place in the natural order of things.

ESPN place him eighth in their pound-for-pound list while the Boxing Writers Association of America have him joint-10th. But The Ring does not rank him at all, amusingly considering they are promoting this New York card. The Transnational Boxing Rankings Board have also omitted Stevenson from their latest ratings. 

It comes back to the nagging notion that Stevenson’s opponents have not befitted his skillset. Our last two previews when Shakur featured odds of 1/33 for him to score a victory. Under those circumstances, the fact he is only 1/12 to defeat Zepeda is a marked improvement. 

You can only beat what is in front of you. It should be emphasised, Stevenson fought Britain’s Padley on four days’ notice due to the illness withdrawal of unbeaten Floyd Schofield. The fight, which Stevenson won in nine rounds, led to Padley being able to quit his day job as an electrician and pursue boxing full-time. Stevenson himself was among the well-wishers, showing a softer side rarely glimpsed from the confident champion. 

It should be noted that one can only box who is in front of them. His 23-0 ledger speaks for itself, with world belts at featherweight, super featherweight and lightweight to boot. Stevenson is also not solely to blame for big fights not materialising. The Schofield match fell apart because Floyd got injured. A hand injury scuppered an intriguing clash with Joe Cordina while Gervonta Davis did not exactly rush to make a fight happen when Stevenson called him out post-Padley.

That one is still an option, but Stevenson has also run into a timing problem. As he emerged at lightweight following his two-division success further down, many of the top names headed up in weight. Then-champion Devin Haney, ex-unified bosses Teofimo Lopez and George Kambosos Jr. and lucrative liability Ryan Garcia all moved out of the 135-pound class. Meanwhile, modern legend Vasiliy Lomachenko recently vacated his IBF lightweight title and retired from the sport.

That is not to say Stevenson has faced all the very best boxers the weight has to offer. Future fights with Andy Cruz, Abdullah Mason, Raymond Muratalla and the aforementioned Davis all appeal. But to be fair to Stevenson, apart from ‘Tank’ all those fighters were in the “prospect” stage of their development for the majority of Stevenson’s lightweight stay.

Zepeda is a step up. 33-0 at the age of 29, this title shot has been a little too long in the offing. But people said similar things about Arnold Barboza Jr. before he upset Jack Catterall, parlaying his own 32-0 record into a shot at Lopez’s WBO belt at the age of 33.

Zepeda is coming off two gruelling learning fights against the old stager, Tevin Farmer. A controversial win in their first meeting necessitated another tough night in the second. Zepeda left the series having been knocked down in the first fight and ruthlessly tested in both, but with a wealth of experiences against a former world champion. 

If you work in the Zepeda PR department, the fact Farmer got sparked in a round by Schofield in May probably does not help build confidence. But that was Farmer’s first stoppage loss in 13 years and came off the back of 22 rough rounds with Zepeda as well as another 10 with Muratalla, who went on to become the IBF champion.

Zepeda’s struggles with the veteran Farmer have coloured perceptions of the Mexican. But styles make fights, and ‘Camaron’ has impressed against quality opposition too. Britain’s indefatigable Maxi Hughes was beaten down in four rounds. Zepeda matched Haney’s unanimous decision win over Joseph Diaz in ‘JoJo’’s very next fight. A sixth-round stoppage win over two-time world title contender Mercito Gesta got the blood pumping too.

A more profound challenge than Stevenson has been accustomed to lately. He should have enough to prevail, but nothing is certain in this game.

 Shakur Stevenson vs William Zepeda Full Card

Edgar Berlanga vs Hamzah Sheeraz

Shakur Stevenson vs William Zepeda

Alberto Puello vs Subriel Matias

David Morrell vs Imam Khataev

Mohammed Alakel vs Placido Hoff

Reito Tsutsumi vs Michael Ruiz

Shakur Stevenson vs William Zepeda Prediction

I like Zepeda, perhaps a little more than most. At this stage he should perhaps have been challenged a little more. But there are harbingers of doom in his recent past.

Farmer is a tricky sort and troubled Zepeda for two fights, despite winning neither. Stevenson is that style taken to its logical extreme. Extremely slippery, frustrating and hard to tag with anything clean. 

For this reason, I think Stevenson can take advantage of an increasingly dishevelled Zepeda as the fight wears on. I think the Mexican will make mistakes and leave openings. Stevenson is no puncher, with 11 stoppages in 23 wins. But I’m going to stick my neck out and pick this as knockout number 12 at odds of 11/4.

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