Rodriguez vs Diaz Predictions: Boxing’s other ‘Manny’ eyes one more world title

Two-time IBF bantamweight champion Emmanuel Rodriguez returns this Saturday, January 10 against Fernando Diaz. The bout serves as part of the undercard for Dalton Smith’s WBC super lightweight title crack at champion Subriel Matias. The event takes place at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. PPV.com will broadcast the event live.

Stay tuned for my Rodriguez vs Diaz predictions.

Rodriguez vs Diaz Odds

Rodriguez is priced at 1/10 for the victory here. Diaz is your 7/1 underdog while the draw is marketed at 18/1.

Rodriguez vs Diaz Fight Preview

Puerto Rico’s ‘Manny’ has taken some time out since his second reign as IBF champion ended. Rodriguez last fought in May of 2024, when he lost his belt to Ryosuke Nishida via unanimous decision in a major upset. 

It was a competitive fight, but the Japanese challenger edged it by ripping up his usual technical gameplan and going on the front foot. Nishida dropped Rodriguez with a body shot in the fourth round and went to war to take the famous red belt. It was a brutal and draining way to lose a world title for the Manati-born boxer.

Rodriguez was waylaid for part of his 18-month absence by a rib injury in sparring. But the fighter himself has admitted to taking his time over a comeback, recharging with family before he launches a third campaign towards world titles.

The 33-year-old has endured a rocky road to this point and now he has the trainer to match. No, not Mickey Goldmill. Rodriguez has paired up with countryman Rocky Martinez, a three-time super featherweight champion who UK fans will remember for his title fights on these shores against Nicky Cook and Ricky Burns. Since retiring in 2019, Martinez has carved out a career as a coach and the 42-year-old now aims to steer Rodriguez back to world honours.

Rodriguez has been in with the very best, beating world champions like Paul Butler, Jason Moloney and inflicting the first defeat on Gary Antonio Russell. In his toughest test, Rodriguez was knocked out in two rounds by pound-for-pound king Naoya Inoue. But he rebounded to clinch a second IBF crown, knocking Melving Lopez down three times in a shutout decision in 2023.

Rodriguez retired in the aftermath, initially citing a wish to retire while he retained his love of boxing. Bizarrely, a week later ‘Manny’ retracted his statement and claimed he had retired due to the paltry pay-off, a reported $75,000, that he had received for the Lopez win.

You could have forgiven Rodriguez for regretting his u-turn after the Nishida defeat. But Rodriguez is back at it again this weekend, against an opponent who knows his way around an upset. 

Diaz made waves in 2021 and 2022, when he upset unbeaten prospects Jan Salvatierra and Lorenzo Smith in back-to-back fights. A shot at the WBC-affiliated NABF super flyweight title followed, but Juan Carlos Camacho, a recent world title challenger, stopped the underdog in seven rounds.

Diaz has never restored his momentum of a few years ago, losing to good men like classy Cuban Yankiel Rivera Figueroa and undefeated Dominique Crowder. Which makes his selection for this task understandable. While he is more capable than a warm body, the 16-6-1 Diaz is unlikely to get ideas above his station.

This fight is a new beginning for Rodriguez. A new trainer, a fresh start. But will this journey ned with a third world championship?

Rodriguez vs Diaz Full Card

Subriel Matias vs Dalton Smith

Jeyvier Cintron vs Jonathan Rodriguez

Alfredo Santiago vs Hendri Cedeno

Nestor Bravo vs Pedro Campa

Emmanuel Rodriguez vs Fernando Diaz

Keith Colon vs Alberto Guevara

Arjan Iseni vs Mario Bedolla Orozco

Rodriguez vs Diaz Prediction

Ring rust might be a concern for the 33-year-old and Diaz will be keen to capitalise. But in truth, the underdog is ill-equipped to trouble the former champ. I think Rodriguez wins this without too much undue bother at 1/10.

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